NFL Week 18 Overreactions
USAT’s Prince Grimes breaks down the NFL playoff picture after closing out the regular season.
Sports Seriously
The Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots play on Sunday, Jan. 11, at the Patriots’ Gillette Stadium in a game on the NFL playoff schedule for wild-card weekend.
Which team will win the first-round NFL postseason game?
Check out these NFL playoff picks and NFL playoff predictions for the game, which can be seen at 6 p.m. MST on NBC (stream with FUBO).
The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite over the Chargers in NFL playoff odds for the game, courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.
New England is -210 on the moneyline, while Los Angeles is +170. The over/under (point total) is set at 46 points.
NFL playoff picks: Rams at Panthers | Packers at Bears | Bills at Jaguars | 49ers at Eagles | Chargers at Patriots | Texans at Steelers | The Republic’s score predictions
Watch Chargers at Patriots live on FUBO (free trial)
Jeremy Cluff writes: “We’re not sure how far the Patriots will go in the NFL playoffs, but Drake Maye and company are no fluke, as a 14-3 regular season showed. The New England defensive line should be able to pressure Justin Herbert into some mistakes and New England’s efficient offense will take advantage of those Chargers mistakes, sending the No. 2 AFC seed into the Divisional Round with a win over Los Angeles.”
Bookies.com: Bet the under in Patriots vs Chargers game
Bill Speros writes: “The Patriots played through one of the softest schedules in NFL history – but dominated nonetheless. The Bolts pose a tough out – even at home on a chilled New England evening. QBs Justin Herbert and Drake Maye pose dual-threats for opposing defenses. This game offers one of them a significant chance to break through to the next level in the postseason. Both teams enter this matchup fully healthy at their key spots. A warm-for-Foxboro-but-rainy forecast favors the Patriots (11-5-1 ATS), who have leaned into the run of late. They face a team in the Chargers (8-8-1 ATS) that has played 12 of its games either indoors or Florida. A defensive clash awaits.”
NFL playoff schedule: Rams at Panthers | Packers at Bears | Bills at Jaguars | 49ers at Eagles | Chargers at Patriots | Texans at Steelers | Seahawks next game | Broncos next game | NFL playoff bracket | When is Super Bowl? | TV channels, streaming
The site’s formula predicts that the Patriots will win the NFL playoff game against the Chargers.
ESPN: Patriots have a 54.4% chance to beat Chargers on Sunday
The site gives the Chargers a 45.6% shot at winning the NFL playoff game.
NFL playoff odds: Rams at Panthers | Packers at Bears | Bills at Jaguars | 49ers at Eagles | Chargers at Patriots | Texans at Steelers | Wild-card odds | Super Bowl odds
Dimers: Patriots 25, Chargers 22
It writes: “After extensive simulations, our model gives the Chargers a win probability of 37%, while the Patriots have a win probability of 63%.”
Sportsnaut: Los Angeles Chargers 24, New England Patriots 21
Matt Johnson writes: “The reason for the upset pick is largely focused on New England’s pass rush. It ranked 20th in ESPN pass-rush win rate and placed 25th in pressure rate during the regular season. What’s critical to slowing down this Chargers offense is being able to take advantage of a disastrous offensive line. The Patriots should still have a fair amount of success with that, especially upon the return of Milton Williams, but inconsistency could be fatal versus Justin Herbert.”
Reach Jeremy Cluff at jeremy.cluff@arizonarepublic.com. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter @Jeremy_Cluff.
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