AFC Wild Card predictions: Which teams will advance to divisional round
USA TODAY Sports Chris Bumbaca and Joe Rivera share who they think will make it out of the AFC Wild Card round.
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Sunday night features a primetime battle between the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert looks to put an end to his winless playoff record after he’s carried the Chargers offense for most of the season behind a leaky offensive line. Meanwhile, the Patriots are coming off a remarkable turnatound year under coach Mike Vrabel.
Vrabel is on the shortlist of coach of the year candidates, and Drake Maye is an MVP candidate.
The Chargers enter the playoffs for the second straight season under Jim Harbaugh. They are the AFC’s No. 7 seed after finishing second in the AFC West. The Patriots are the conference’s No. 2 seed after winning their first AFC East title since 2019.
How will the Chargers vs. Patriots wild-card matchup go? Here’s what to expect ahead of Saturday’s playoff battle:
Chargers vs. Patriots odds
The Patriots are favored at home in this contest, according to the BetMGM NFL odds.
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Moneyline: Patriots (-220); Chargers (+170)Over/under: 46
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Chargers vs. Patriots matchups to watch
Drake Maye had an NFL-best 113.5 passer rating and 72% completion percentage during the regular season. He leads a well-balanced Patriots team against a Chargers club that boasts the No. 5 total defense in the league. Here’s a look at some of the most notable matchups to watch.
Chargers vulnerable offensive line vs. Patriots defense
The Chargers haven’t been able to fill the void left by injured tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt.
The Chargers had the NFL’s worst pass block win rate and ranked second to last in run block win rate entering Week 18, per ESPN. Justin Herbert was sacked a career-most 54 times, hit a career-high 74 times and he was under pressure on a career-worst 29.8% of his dropbacks. The 263 total times he faced pressure this year led the NFL.
Can the Patriots take advantage of a bad Chargers O-line? New England ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in pass rush win rate. Harold Landry III led New England with 8.5 sacks and K’Lavon Chaisson had a team-most 54 pressures during the regular season.
Drake Maye vs. Jesse Minter’s Chargers defense
Minter, the Chargers defensive coordinator, is a hot head coaching candidate this hiring cycle because he’s led the Chargers defense to another good year. The Chargers ranked fifth in total defense and had the NFL’s fifth stingiest pass defense during the regular season. Â
Derwin James leads the secondary, while Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu are the key players upfront. Can James and the Chargers secondary have sticky coverage against New England’s pass catchers? Will Mack and Tuipulotu be able to apply pressure on Maye? Minter also likes to send James on blitzes as he tends to line up close to the line of scrimmage.
Maye had an NFL-high 113.5 passer rating and 72% completion percentage during the regular season. Stefon Diggs produced a team-high 85 catches for 1,013 yards.
 The winner of this matchup could determine the game.
TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson against Chargers run D
Led by Henderson and Stevenson, the Patriots had the sixth-best rushing attack in the NFL, averaging 128.9 yards during the regular season. New England had 16 runs of 20 yards or more this year. New England ranked ninth in run block win rate going into Week 18, per ESPN.
The Chargers defense ranked eighth against the run.
A solid running game will help ease the pressure on Drake Maye, who is making his first career playoff start.
Early prediction for Chargers vs. Patriots
Chargers 23, Patriots 22
Upset of the weekend? Justin Herbert’s never won a playoff game. Drake Maye’s never played in a playoff game. The Chargers have the NFL’s worst pass block win rate and rank second to last in run block win rate. However, the Patriots don’t have a formidable pass rush. Herbert and the Chargers make enough plays to pull off the biggest upset of wild-card weekend.
Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Tyler Dragon on XÂ @TheTylerDragon.