AFC Wild Card predictions: Which teams will advance to divisional round
USA TODAY Sports Chris Bumbaca and Joe Rivera share who they think will make it out of the AFC Wild Card round.
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The new kids on the block are set to battle the old guard in the 2025 NFL playoffs.
Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars captured their first AFC South title since 2022, marking their triumphant return to postseason action. Coached by Liam Coen, Jacksonville has been arguably the league’s best for two months after winning eight straight to get to this point.
While some of the team can look back on their experience in the 2022 NFL playoffs, others will be playing in the postseason for the first time. That is especially true for Coen and his staff, who weren’t part of the last Jaguars’ team to make the playoffs.
Experience won’t be a problem for the Buffalo Bills, who have made the playoffs in seven of Josh Allen’s eight seasons. Allen and co. are still looking to get over the hump in January though. Buffalo is coming off an emotional Week 18 game that saw what was likely its final game at Highmark Stadium. Now the Bills begin their quest for a return to the Super Bowl stage for the first time since 1994.
Buffalo has been there and, mostly, done that in the postseason. Jacksonville is looking to announce itself as a true Super Bowl contender.
The storylines are plentiful in this wild-card matchup between two of the league’s best. Here’s a breakdown of the Jaguars vs. Bills matchup for the 2025 NFL playoffs.
Jaguars vs. Bills wild card odds
The lower-seeded Bills are listed as short favorites over the AFC South champion Jaguars in the contest, according to the BetMGM NFL odds.
Spread: Bills (-1.5)Moneyline: Bills (-120) | Jaguars (+100)Over/under: 51.5
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Jaguars vs. Bills matchups to watchJames Cook vs. Jaguars run defense
The Jaguars allowed a league-low 85.6 rushing yards per game and the Bills averaged a league-high 159.6 rushing yards per game this season. It’s strength vs. strength for the two sides and whoever wins this battle has a good chance to win the game.
Cook was the NFL’s leading rusher, finishing with 1,621 yards in 2025. Slowing him down will be key for Jacksonville’s No. 1-ranked run defense.
Bills’ pass-catchers vs. Jaguars’ secondary
Conventional wisdom suggests that if the Bills can’t run the ball, they will have to throw. This is an advantage for the Jaguars. Unless Allen puts on a cape and turns into an NFL superhero, he will have to rely on the likes of Khalil Shakir, Brandin Cooks and Joshua Palmer as his three primary receivers.
Dalton Kincaid has been slowed by injuries this season, but he’s a player who could make a significant impact.
Is that enough to beat a Jacksonville defense that also forced the second-most turnovers (31) in the league this season? Time will tell.
Jaguars’ Cam Little vs. Bills’ Matt Prater
In a game that features two high-powered offenses, it seems ridiculous for the kickers to play a key role. However, there are three phases to the game and special teams might just be the difference.
Jacksonville holds the early field position advantage, simply because they are in field-goal range at around midfield. Little has drilled a pair of kicks this season from 67 and 68 yards, which could be a difference-maker when the margins are so thin in the playoffs.
On the flip side, Prater has only attempted two field goals from 50+ yards in 2025, converting only one of them. He is also day-to-day with a quad injury. Life will already be difficult for the Bills’ rushing attack. They’ll have to move the ball through the air and pick up some additional yards to get into field-goal range, unlike the home team. Don’t be surprised if a long-distance field goal makes the difference, one way or another.
Early prediction for Jaguars vs. Bills
It’s said that defense wins championships. Does it also win wild-card games?
The Jaguars have the defensive edge as the team best-positioned to slow down the Bills’ run game. They didn’t allow a running back to rush for more than 74 yards in a game this season. Despite a 12-5 record, Buffalo has been hot-and-cold all year – narrowly escaping some back-breaking losses over the course of 18 weeks.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville is red-hot as winners of eight straight.
It remains to be seen if they peaked at the right time, but the Jaguars turned a corner over the last few months and have Lawrence playing some of the best football of his career. The trade for Jakobi Meyers turned out better than anyone could’ve thought and now Parker Washington is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses.
The Jags have the home-field advantage and the Bills have the best player. It’s a team game though and Jacksonville is set up perfectly to exploit Buffalo’s weaknesses.
Liam Coen’s team gets the job done in their return to the postseason.