One NFL analyst isn’t sold on the current play of Jaguars’ QB Trevor Lawrence.
Trevor Lawrence is rolling, however, one ESPN analyst isn’t fully buying into the current level of play from the Jacksonville Jaguars’ quarterback.
Over the Jaguars‘ eight-game winning streak, Lawrence is completing 63% of his passes. His 1,856 passing yards are the fourth-most among quarterbacks during that span, and he ranks third in yards per pass attempt.
Lawrence also has the second-most touchdown passes and the fifth-lowest turnover-worthy play rate over that stretch of games as well, according to PFF.
But Dan Graziano, in his latest article for ESPN, says that it is a myth that Lawrence is “fixed” and is one of the best quarterbacks in football.
Here’s why Graziano feels this way:
“Lawrence’s Total QBR for the season was 58.3, 15th best in the league and just a smidge ahead of where he has always been,” Graziano wrote. “From 2022 to 2024, his year-by-year Total QBR numbers were 56.1, 56.9 and 56.1. His completion percentage over expectation (Next Gen Stats) last season was minus-4.0, which ranked 33rd in a 32-team league. This year? It was minus-2.7, which ranked 28th.”
Graziano later added, “Lawrence is the same player he has always been, just with a better structure around him. It’s not necessarily that he’s fixed; it’s that maybe the Jaguars are.”
The issue I have here is that Graziano is using the full season sample size to make this argument. Lawrence and the Jaguars’ offense under Liam Coen took time to hit their stride.
Lawrence’s play early on in the year wasn’t at the level it is currently at. I don’t think anyone would disagree with that. But to say that his current play over the last two-plus months isn’t an improvement seems off base.
Beyond the production highlighted above, Lawrence’s command and comfort within the Jaguars’ offense and the way he operates pre-snap to put this unit in the best position to succeed are on another level right now.
Making his performance even more impressive is that the Jaguars haven’t had much of a run game to lean on over the second half of the season, putting more of the workload on Lawrence and the passing game.
Since the bye week, the Jaguars are averaging almost 33 points per game and have been one of the most productive offenses in football. Leading that charge is Lawrence and his play.