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Panthers look to facing Bucs for NFC South title

USAT’s Joe Rivera and Chris Bumbaca dive into Tampa Bay’s ugly skid and Carolina’s momentum.

Sports Seriously

At the season’s midpoint, it seemed like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would be a shoo-in to win the NFC South. Todd Bowles’ squad sported a 6-2 record entering its Week 9 bye, and Baker Mayfield was in the early-season MVP talk.

But after going 1-7 out of the bye, the Buccaneers needed to win and get help in Week 18 to make it into the 2025 NFL playoffs.

It initially appeared Tampa Bay’s Week 18 matchup with the Carolina Panthers would be a win-and-in game for the Buccaneers. However, the Atlanta Falcons’ upset win over the Los Angeles Rams on “Monday Night Football” in Week 17 has created a once-unimaginable scenario where they could be a three-way tie atop the NFC South.

The Buccaneers at least kept themselves alive in the NFL playoff picture by beating the Panthers 16-14 in their Week 18 matchup. Now, they will need help from the New Orleans Saints to make it into the postseason.

Here’s a full breakdown of the Buccaneers’ playoff picture as they look to make the playoffs for a sixth consecutive season.

Not yet. The Buccaneers beat the Panthers in Week 18, but they will still need help to make the postseason. They need the Falcons to lose to the Saints to avoid a three-way tie atop the NFC South, which would allow the Panthers to backdoor their way into the playoffs.

The Buccaneers have an estimated 40% chance to make the playoffs, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That was up from the 28% chance they had entering their Jan. 3 clash with the Panthers.

The Buccaneers were originally expected to have closer to a 50-50 chance to make the playoffs and a win-and-in scenario in Week 18. However, the Falcons’ win over the Rams on “Monday Night Football” in Week 17 complicated Tampa Bay’s path to a postseason berth.

In short, Tampa Bay can’t simply win and get into the postseason. The Buccaneers need to win and see the Falcons lose (or tie) in Week 18 to win the NFC South.

The Buccaneers can only get into the playoffs by winning the NFC South. Here’s a look at what it will take for Tampa Bay to win the division for a fourth consecutive season:

Buccaneers win vs. Panthers ANDFalcons lose or tie against Saints

The Buccaneers achieved the first result by beating the Panthers 16-14 on Jan. 3. Now, they will turn their attention to the Falcons-Saints game and will be placed in the unusual position of rooting for New Orleans, one of their top rivals.

If New Orleans can deliver a victory or ensure the game ends in a tie, Tampa Bay would make it into the 2025 postseason as the NFC’s No. 4 seed. They would then play either the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers or Los Angeles Rams in the wild-card round, pending the results of the two NFC West contests in Week 18.

But if Atlanta wins, the Buccaneers will find themselves outside of the NFC playoff picture.

The Buccaneers are tied with Panthers in the NFC South after beating them in Week 18. Below is a full look at the divisional standings:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)Carolina Panthers (8-9)Atlanta Falcons (7-9)New Orleans Saints (6-10)

The Buccaneers and Panthers split their season series and have an identical divisional record of 3-3. In a two-way tie between the clubs, Tampa Bay would have the advantage in the “common games” tiebreaker, allowing the team to win the NFC South.

However, if the Falcons win, that would create a three-way tie atop the NFC South. The Panthers would emerge victorious from that tiebreaker, as the team would have a 3-1 record in games played among the three clubs, the best among the group.

That’s why the Buccaneers need help from the rival Saints to help potentially put them into the postseason.

The Panthers have finished their 2025 NFL regular season schedule. They have finished the year with an 8-9 record.

The Buccaneers are also done with their regular season schedule. They too have finished with an 8-9 record.

The Falcons don’t play until Sunday, Jan. 4, so Buccaneers fans will have to wait to see the result of Atlanta’s final game. Below is a look at the Falcons’ matchup:

Week 18: vs. New Orleans Saints (6-10)

Here’s how the AFC and NFC stack up entering Week 18:

AFCDenver Broncos (13-3, AFC West winners)*New England Patriots (13-3, AFC East winners)*Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4, AFC South leaders)*Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7, AFC North leaders)Houston Texans (11-5, wild card No. 1)*Los Angeles Chargers (11-5, wild card No. 2)*Buffalo Bills (11-5, wild card No. 3)*

In the hunt: Baltimore Ravens (8-8)

NFCSeattle Seahawks (13-3, NFC West leaders)*Chicago Bears (11-5, NFC North winners)*Philadelphia Eagles (11-5, NFC East winners)*Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9, NFC South leaders)San Francisco 49ers (12-4, wild card No. 1)*Los Angeles Rams (11-5, wild card No. 2)*Green Bay Packers (9-6-1, wild card No. 3)*

In the hunt: Carolina Panthers (8-9)

* Denotes team that has clinched a playoff berth.