It’s only early January, but somehow, that means we’re nearly halfway through this college basketball season.

The last time we opened up our mailbag, we already had a fairly good sense of which teams were surging (Michigan, Arizona) and struggling (Kentucky, Marquette). But with the nonconference slate now fully in the rear view, and conference play underway, all eyes start slowly turning toward March. Speaking of which:

(Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.)

There seems to be a pretty clear top six right now in Michigan, Arizona, Iowa State, UConn, Purdue and Duke. Which of those teams is most likely to lose before the second weekend? And if you could only pick one, which team outside those six would you take to make the Final Four? — Jeremy K.

No shot I’m picking against Michigan (14-0) or Arizona (14-0), who belong in their own tier. I’m also a huge fan of Iowa State (14-0), which only fell off last season once the injury bug hit, and UConn (14-1), who I picked to win it all in the preseason and who hasn’t disappointed. Which leaves Purdue (13-1) and Duke (14-1), both of whom I could see — but wouldn’t bet on — getting upset sooner than we might expect. I kind of refuse to believe that the Blue Devils, led by Wooden Award favorite Cam Boozer, aren’t going to continue finding ways to win, as they have at Michigan State and against Arkansas. Process of elimination, then, leaves Purdue, which historically speaking — with four first-round exits in the last 10 NCAA Tournaments — is probably the right choice.

So, why Purdue? Unlike the other five teams, we’ve already seen the floor fall out on the Boilermakers once this season, albeit against the Cyclones. Iowa State won 81-58 at Purdue on Dec. 6. That was Purdue’s only game this season in which it made under 30 percent of its 3-pointers. The steady shooting does give Matt Painter’s team some cushion, but it’s possible that happens again — even against a lesser defense — because we’ve already seen it once. Also, for as great as Braden Smith is, he hasn’t historically been an awesome postseason performer, especially during Purdue’s run to the national title game two seasons ago.

I’m certainly not predicting this to happen — and like last season, think the top of the top in college basketball is as strong as ever — but with the Boilermakers, I can at least talk myself into getting upset.

As for a team outside those six to make the Final Four, Vanderbilt (14-0), BYU (13-1), Alabama (11-3), and Illinois (11-3) intrigue me … but I will take Houston, which somehow fell under the radar after a narrow 3-point loss to Tennessee at Players Era. But Tuesday’s 69-65 win over No. 14 Texas Tech should put Kelvin Sampson’s team back in the national focus. The Cougars’ defense is always top-notch, and while Milos Uzan is still searching for his shot, Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp have carried the load offensively. I’m buying any discounted Houston stock I can. — Brendan Marks

The Big East seems to be all over the place this year. What’s real and what’s fake about this league? Do you think Villanova and Seton Hall are actual contenders come March or are they just getting the benefit of the doubt in a largely dud of a conference (excluding UConn)? — G.S.

No doubt the Big East is down. It’s this season’s ACC, where only two or three teams may make the NCAA Tournament.

After UConn, Villanova (12-2) has the highest floor of the rest of the league. As CJ noted in his top 25 this week, first-year coach Kevin Willard has done an awesome job of tweaking his style to align with his personnel and Nova’s longtime style: methodical tempo, multiple 3-point threats, and a defense that can hold its own without fouling. Other than UConn and Clemson, no one has played BYU closer than the Wildcats did in their season opener. Not sure if Nova has a deep run in it, but a return to the tournament after the Kyle Neptune era feels like a pretty big win in Willard’s first season.

The other two teams in the mix come from opposite ends of the preseason poll: Seton Hall (13-2), which was picked to finish last in the league this year, and St. John’s (10-5), which was narrowly picked to win the conference over Dan Hurley’s Huskies. I am not ready to bow out on St. John’s yet. The resume isn’t awesome — the Providence loss especially stings as a possible Quad 3 defeat — but the advanced metrics are solid enough that a postseason berth is more than salvageable. Plus, have we all forgotten who’s coaching this team? Even if the pieces aren’t a perfect fit, Rick Pitino still has Zuby Ejiofor, Bryce Hopkins, and a litany of talented parts that should help the Johnnies rack up wins against the Big East’s lesser teams.

As for Seton Hall, a neutral-site win over NC State in Maui is propping up a relatively unimpressive resume, but the Pirates’ defense is legit. Does Shaheen Holloway’s team have enough offense? As of today, I’d predict Seton Hall narrowly gets in as the Big East’s fourth tournament team, but the Pirates’ lack of size and scoring prevents me from being overly confident. — Marks

Who will be the next big-name coach to retire? — Peter B.

Had you asked us this question last August, none of us would have correctly predicted Bruce Pearl. But Pearl abruptly stepping down just 42 days before Auburn’s first game of the season definitely got me thinking about this question.

The first step is to identify who can already collect Social Security checks, or will be soon. And so with that, we’re going to pick our answer from the following candidates: St. John’s Pitino (73 years old), Tennessee’s Rick Barnes (71), Michigan State’s Tom Izzo (70), Houston’s Sampson (70), Oregon’s Dana Altman (67) and finally, the youngsters of the group: Kansas’ Bill Self and Gonzaga’s Mark Few, who share a birthday and both just turned 63.

Self has had a couple of health issues in recent years (he was hospitalized last July, and had to have two stents inserted). Pitino is the oldest on the list, but this man lives and breathes basketball. I think it’s more likely Pitino retires as a head coach and joins his son’s bench at Xavier when the time comes than quits the sport entirely. Izzo seems energized by all the chaos in college basketball. Sampson is a spry senior citizen who signed one of the nation’s best classes last year and is still searching for that elusive championship. Altman is too competitive to walk away until he (re)rights the ship at Oregon, which could take a season or two. Few probably has better life balance than most on this list — he famously loves fishing and spends a lot of time doing it — but he’s also still relatively young in his profession.

Personally, I’ll say Barnes. Yes, he signed a “lifetime contract” back in August, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he wants to coach for the rest of his life. He has seven grandkids after all — spending time with them is probably going to be a priority soon. — Lindsay Schnell

Former Xavier coach Travis Steele has Miami (Ohio) among the six remaining undefeated teams in Division I. (Ken Blaze / Imagn Images)

Is Miami (Ohio) legit? Could they get an at-large bid in March? How many games will they have to win to be ranked in the AP Top 25? —Anonymous U.

My first answer: I want to know, too! I was bummed to see the 16-0 Redhawks didn’t get ranked after their big win over Akron last weekend. And I was surprised that they were pretty far down the “others receiving votes” list; No. 30 in the country, to be exact. When I voted, I used to pay close attention to teams that recorded long unbeaten streaks; even if you’re playing a pretty meh strength of schedule, it’s hard to keep winning when everyone wants to be the one to end the streak. To me, winning 15 straight absolutely makes you legit.

I think what’s going on can likely be summed up as mid-major bias. The Mid-American doesn’t make much noise. It’s also challenging when voters have to go hunting for your games instead of just flipping on ESPN. I would think that if they get to 20-0 they’ll at least crack the Top 25, but given that at 15-0 they weren’t getting much love, maybe that’s optimistic.

As for March, I don’t see an at-large being an option. (The Redhawks are a No. 12 seed in our latest bracket projection.) Miami is ranked No. 58 in the NET and given its strength of schedule, that number will probably go down (for context, Akron is No. 50 in the NET; the only other MAC team to break the top 100 is No. 100 Bowling Green). The Redhawks’ best (and only) chance is to win the auto bid. Then, they can upset a higher seed and then sit in the news conference and tell the media why they should have been ranked all along. — Schnell

Which team in the top 10 is best suited to beating Michigan? What is the recipe? — Daniel G.

You have to turn Michigan over. Two of the three games the Wolverines struggled in — against Wake Forest and TCU — were the two games with their highest turnover rate. You have to be able to get back in transition, set your defense and pressure their point guards into mistakes. Iowa State and Houston are probably best suited to give them issues there.

On defense, Michigan switches a ton, and there are two teams best equipped to go against the switching: UConn and Purdue. The Huskies have seen a lot of switching the last few years because it’s the best way to try to take away all of their off-ball screening and movement, so they’re used to going against that type of defense and have some built-in solutions. Purdue is my other choice just because of the Smith-Painter combo. They’re going to figure out a way to score, and when Aday Mara is in the game, Smith has the pull-up game to burn Michigan’s drop coverage. Of course, what makes Michigan so tough is Dusty May has different lineup combos and looks he can use.

Arizona is the other one I’d throw out there because the Wildcats have size and do not mind playing an uptempo game. You have to have guards who can make something happen late in the clock. The Wildcats have that guy in Jaden Bradley, and if it’s a close game late, no one has been more clutch this year than Bradley. — C.J. Moore