In the first of three NFL Wild Card games this coming Sunday, the Buffalo Bills will head to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars. The Bills had a very good season, but for the first time in years, they did not win the AFC East, making them a Wild Card team, forcing them to go on the road in this matchup. The Jaguars finished the season as one of, if not the hottest teams in the NFL, winning the AFC South and finishing as the third seed in the AFC playoffs. 

Dec 28, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) reacts after a touchdown during the second half against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

The Jaguars are 1.5-point favorites in this game, led by Trevor Lawrence, who had a career season under new head coach Liam Coen. Of course, the Bills are led by reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen, which always gives them a chance to win any big game. One of the big concerns for the Bills this season, though, has been the lack of pass-catching weapons for Josh Allen. Does he have enough help to win games against other good teams?

Dec 14, 2025; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Buffalo Bills running back James Cook III (4) runs for a touchdown against the New England Patriots during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

If we take a look at each team and how they ranked both offensively and defensively during the season, it is the Bills who appear to have the advantage. Offensively, the Bills ranked 3rd in yards, 15th in passing, 1st in rushing, and 4th in points. The Jaguars ranked 11th in yards, 12th in passing, 20th in rushing, and 6th in points. Where this matchup gets the most interesting is on the defensive side of the ball. The Bills had the number one pass defense in the league during the regular season, while the Jaguars had the number one rush defense. Each teams biggest strength on offense is also what each team defends the best on defense.

Josh AllenBuffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) looks downfield against the Cleveland Browns during the first half at Huntington Bank Field. Credit: Scott Galvin-Imagn Images

Can the Bills number one rush offense do enough against the Jags number one rush defense? Can the Jags 12th 12th-ranked pass offense do enough against the Bills number-one pass defense? One of the biggest keys in this game will also be 3rd down conversions. The Jags ranked 19th in the league this season offensively in that category, while the Bills ranked 4th. So, if the Bills are able to run the ball effectively and pick up big 3rd down conversions, they should be able to go into Jacksonville and come away with the win. 

Trevor LawrenceJacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) celebrates his touchdown in the third quarter during a Monday Night NFL football game at EverBank Stadium, Monday, Oct. 6, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. [Doug EngleFlorida Times-Union]

On paper, it would appear that if the Jags want to win this game, they will need to have a big game on the ground, particularly from Travis Etienne and Trevor Lawrence. The prediction here is that the Bills win the game 30-27. 

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