Yahoo Sports NFL analyst Nate Tice and NFL writer Charles McDonald preview the wild card matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears. Check out the full conversation on “Football 301” – and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.
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Video Transcript
What I think is so compelling is that it’s two really explosive offenses versus two defenses.
That allow a lot of explosives.
So it’s likeyeah.
…
I think, uh, there is a chance this might be A 31-27 type game, like 34-30 in the cold.
It’d be great.
I think there are snow flurries potentially in Chicago.
Um, nice.
I think it’s not a game, a playoff-type game, that you expect at Soldier Field, I think, in our lifetimes.
‘Cause every time the Bears make a playoff run, it’s usually with an elite defense and a middling Rex Grossman-led offense, Jay Cutler, or Mitch Trubisky.
Caleb was a different animal than that, and this Bears run game is a different animal than That.
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Uh, starting with the Bears’ defense, The Packers’ offense, theyI was trying to find some angle.
The Packers’ run offense hasn’t been great, both with and without Josh Jacobs.
It’s kind of middle of the road.
That’s how I’d put it.
It’s not this overwhelmingly great unit, kind of by design.
They’re such a jab-based run game.
And I would say the Bears’ run defense, Not great either.
And then same thing with the Bears’ pass defense, They allow a lot of explosives, and what they’ve been living on is turnovers.
Which they… Dennis Allen has always kind of had that ’cause They kind of gummed stuff up in how they do things on the backend.
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Trying to confuse you, throw into tight spots, yada yada.
Good on tips, all that stuff.
But they’re very gettable.
Like, they’re not… On the back half of the season, they’re 28th in third-down rate, which was their strength in the first half of the season.
Remember, that was kind of what they were.
It was like they were great in situations, And they’re great at getting turnovers.
It’s like, “Okay, that’s good for you.”
That’s fallen off.
Um, since week 10, This team is, you know, 28th in rushing success rate, 20th in passing success rate.
31st in stuff rate, as far as getting TFLs and tackles for no gain, Which, against the Packers, is tough because the Packers are built on those two.
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Three, four-yard gains and then huge haymakers from Jordan Love.
While… And so, like, you look at this team, 27th in EPA versus the slot since Kyler Gordon has been hurt.
I mean, watch last week against the Lions.
The Li- uh, Both times they played the Lions, it was just Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Brown, name breakers, Amon-Ra St. Brown, name breakers, Digs, and over and over and over again.
The Packers have Jayden Reed, And he’s pretty good from the slot.
And they have other guys that can do this.
Too, and Jordan Love is willing to throw to the slot.
They’re willing to throw out breakers, willing to throw in breakers.
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Uh, they are…
This was the other thing I thought was Interesting.
The Bears, since Week 10, are 29th in Average distance to go on third down.
Again, that stuff rate matters because now, Now you’re getting them a lot of third-and- fours, third-and-threes.
And they have that 28th-ranked third-down percentage.
You know who’s one of the best teams on third down this year?
The Packers are second in third-down conversion rate.
This year, it’s 48.8%.
That is an absurd number.
Anything above 50 is, like, an all-time number, and they’re creeping towards that.
Kind of by design with this offense as well.
And then I, So I just looked at those end breakers, and the Bears actually weren’t as bad.
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On them.
I mean, 24th in success rate, not as bad, You know, but out-breakers, which is what Jordan Love has He’s been just nailing Romeo Doubs on just out-breakers, out-breakers.
And getting everybody, sure enough, the Bears are back against that as well.
So, I think Jordan Love is not going to have too many issues.
They might get him with one pick because he’s so aggressive.
But I think the run game’s fine enough to kind of keep them in good situations.
And then, you know, he can throw some haymakers.
Whoever, whoever he wants to.
I think that he has plenty of options there, It’s just what the Bears are this year.