The New England Patriots were one of the most successful teams in the NFL during the regular season, winning 14 of their 17 games and earning both a division title and the No. 2 playoff seed in their conference. Looking ahead, however, those accomplishments matter little: it’s one-game season time.
The first of those games will see the team of head coach Mike Vrabel go up against a formidable opponent, an 11-6 Los Angeles Chargers team combining a formidable offense with one of the best defenses in the NFL. Naturally, the Patriots need to bring their A-game to the prime time matchup on Sunday night.
Beating the Chargers takes more than just good individual performance, however. The Patriots also need to be able to succeed in some critical areas. With that said, here are our X-factors for the wild card playoffs, using numbers from NFL Next Gen Stats.
Be aggressive against zone defense: While the Chargers do like to mix things up on critical downs, they are at their core a zone defense. During the regular season, they ranked fifth in the NFL playing variations of the coverage on 80.7% of plays. The defense coordinated by Jesse Minter performed well using it, too, allowing a completion percentage of just 64.5% while also giving up only seven touchdowns versus 16 interceptions.
The Patriots, on the other hand, have not been limited by zone coverage so far this season. Drake Maye topped the league with a 74.9% completion rate and 9.2 yards per attempt against zone looks during the regular season, throwing 13 TDs to only four INTs. He has been particularly impressive throwing deep, another area the Chargers have fared well so far this season. And while the defensive numbers suggests a formidable opponent in all those areas, Maye is the type of player to find holes and exploit the zone looks he is likely to face at a high rate Sunday.
Get the Chargers out of their comfort zone: L.A. was one of the top teams in football during the regular season operating out of dime looks, a package Minter called on 23.3% of opponent dropbacks — third-highest in the NFL. The team is able to use those seemingly lighter packages thanks to a player like Derwin James, who blurs the line between the traditional safety, nickelback and off-ball linebacker; having him on the field doesn’t compromise the defense’s integrity against the run while still in dime.
The Patriots, however, have the tools to counter this and get the Chargers out of their comfort zone. They recently started increasing the use of packages using six offensive linemen, with backup tackle Thayer Munford Jr. serving as an extra blocker on the line. For offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, this allows the team to move some responsibilities around while remaining physical up front. Against Los Angeles’ dime-heavy crew, those bigger sets and the run game advantages it creates could give New England some advantageous matchups unless Minter and company opt to adjust.
Win at the second level: For as good as the Chargers have been defensively, they have a glaring weakness in the tackle department. During the regular season, they whiffed on 15.8% of tackle attempts, the highest such mark in the league. The aforementioned Derwin James in particular was a culprit, missing a team-leading 19 takedown attempts.
On the other side of the ball, you have a Patriots team made to take advantage of those miscues. Just last week, running back Rhamondre Stevenson gained 104 of his 131 total rushing yards after contact. On the year, he and fellow RB TreVeyon Henderson have averaged a respective 6.9 and 7.2 average yards gained per missed tackle forced.
Set the edge: All week, the Patriots spoke about the dangers Justin Herbert presents on extended plays, be they scramble runs or passes. The Chargers quarterback ranked first in the NFL in scramble yards during the regular season with 469, while also ranking third in passing yards on extended dropbacks with 599.
Herbert is not the only player dangerous when allowed outside the pocket. Running back Omarion Hampton, who is expected to play despite dealing with an ankle injury, has a drastic inside/out split: he averaged 5.5 yards per carry on outside rushes, ranking 10th among all qualifying backs; he averaged only 2.7 yards inside, the second-fewest. For the Patriots, the goal needs to be clear: keeping both Herbert and Hampton inside by setting a hard edge versus the pass and the run.
Challenge the offensive line: It’s no secret that the Chargers offensive line has had its issues this season: over the first 17 games of the season, the unit used 18 unique combinations, the most in the NFL. One big part of that lack of stability was losing starting tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater for the season after Week 9 and in training camp, respectively. As a consequence, Herbert was pressured on 268 of 619 dropbacks this season (43.3%), the highest such rate in the NFL.
When under pressure, the Chargers Pro Bowler has thrown for the fourth-most yards in the NFL (1,192) and tied the league lead in touchdowns (10, a number shared with Drake Maye). However, he also threw nine of his 13 total interceptions on the year while under duress. Ultimately, the Patriots’ performance against L.A’s makeshift O-line will go a long way toward deciding who will win the matchup between the two wild card opponents.
Defend the slot: The last time the Patriots squared off against the Chargers, in Week 17 of the 2024 season, they had a hard time slowing down wide receiver Ladd McConkey. Working primarily against slot corner Jonathan Jones, the then-rookie beat New England for eight catches, gaining 94 yards and scoring a pair of touchdowns.
After he finished the regular season ranked first on the team in receiving yards (789) as well as second in targets (102), receptions (66) and touchdowns (6), McConkey again projects as a focal point in offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s attack. And, like last year, the slot is his preferred area of attack: he 62.3% of his routes from the slot this season, one of the highest rates in the league, and finished with 70 slot targets. Needless to say that McConkey versus Marcus Jones looks like a key matchup for the Patriots.