For the first time in five years, the Pittsburgh Steelers are AFC North champions, and now they get to host a playoff game.
That home playoff game on Monday Night Football brings a matchup against the Houston Texans, winners of nine straight games and owners of one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Is that all?
On paper, it looks like a lopsided affair in favor of the Texans, but that’s why they play the games. The Steelers haven’t lost a home Monday Night Football game since 1991, while the Texans have never won a road playoff game in their history.
Following what we did last year here at Steelers Depot, myself, Joe Clark, Ross McCorkle, Scott Brown, Troy Montgomery, Jake Brockhoff, and Dr. Melanie Friedlander will answer four key questions weekly, previewing the games.
Let’s talk about the Steelers’ AFC Wild Card matchup at Acrisure Stadium against the Houston Texans on Monday Night Football.
QUESTION 1: WHO IS THE STEELERS’ X FACTOR AGAINST THE TEXANS?
Josh Carney: RT Troy Fautanu. I could have gone with LT Dylan Cook here, but I think the Steelers will give him a lot of help against Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. As for Fautanu? I think the Steelers will trust him in plenty of 1-on-1 matchups. He needs to have his best game as a Steeler, both as a run blocker and a pass protector. If he can, Aaron Rodgers should have enough time to make some plays in the passing game.
Joe Clark: RB Kenneth Gainwell. He’s been so consistent all year long, and with the Texans’ secondary arguably the best in the football, the Steelers may need to rely on some quick passes and checkdowns to Gainwell. Continuing to use him a receiver will be key, and if he can produce, the Steelers will have a better shot of winning.
Ross McCorkle: OT Dylan Cook. He has held up well against great pass rushers so far, but playoff football is different, and the Texans have two great pass rushers.
Scott Brown: Going with a what here in the weather. The more January comes into play, the better for the Steelers. Aaron Rodgers thrives in the cold weather forecast for Monday night. And C.J. Stroud’s two career playoff wins have come at home. In a domed stadium. He and the Texans don’t turn into the Dolphins when temperatures dip into the 20s but if a cold night affects them just a little bit that could figure into the game’s outcome.
Troy Montgomery: QB Aaron Rodgers. This is why the Steelers signed Rodgers. It’s been said a lot, but it’s the truth. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history, and he’s got a ton of experience in the playoffs. The Texans’ defense is elite, but Rodgers has to show everyone why the Steelers believe in him. He doesn’t have to turn back the clock and be the MVP version of himself, but he does need to have a solid game against the NFL’s best defense.
Jake Brockhoff: WR Calvin Austin III. Austin hasn’t been as consistent as the Steelers would have liked him to be, but he came up with his biggest catch of the season against Baltimore last week, one that was enough to propel the Steelers into the playoffs. DK Metcalf is back, and while he will command attention from Houston’s defense, the rest of the Steelers’ receiving corps is going to have to contribute as well. Even if Austin just makes a couple of big plays here and there, it could be enough for the Steelers.
Dr. Melanie Friedlander: WR DK Metcalf. Missing the last two games while serving a suspension must have been brutal for the star wide receiver, who knew he had left his team in a difficult spot. With the Steelers earning a home playoff game in his absence, he now has a chance to rejoin his teammates and help them get a win. Facing a phenomenal Texans defense, the Steelers will need every bit of help of offense and Metcalf’s return will be crucial.
QUESTION 2: WHAT IS THE MATCHUP TO WATCH IN STEELERS-TEXANS?
Josh Carney: Steelers WR DK Metcalf vs. Texans CB Derek Stingley Jr. Back from a two-game suspension, Metcalf has to have a chip on his shoulder with a point to prove in the playoffs. He draws a very tough matchup with Stingley, who is a Pro Bowl and All-Pro corner and has allowed a reception on just 52.3% of targets his way this season. Metcalf needs to be able to win, both quickly and vertically, to help give the offense a chance against one of the league’s best defenses.
Joe Clark: Steelers OLB Alex Highsmith vs. Texans LT Aireontae Ersery. Highsmith has been a man amongst boys in recent weeks, and he has a matchup with a rookie tackle on Monday. Ersery is a better pass blocker than run blocker, but it hasn’t been a great rookie season for him. For all the talk about the Texans pass rush, the Steelers can be the team that wins with pressure, especially if Highsmith gets the better of the rookie across from him.
Ross McCorkle: LB Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson vs. TE Dalton Schultz. The Steelers have issues with tight ends from time to time, and Schultz had 82 receptions this season. He is statistically the top tight end in the playoffs. Wilson didn’t play as much in recent weeks against good rushing teams, but he figures to have a bigger role against C.J. Stroud and the Texans.
Scott Brown: CB Joey Porter Jr. vs. WR Nico Collins. Porter has been terrific in the second half of the season, erasing opposing wide receivers and cutting down on the penalties that have plagued him. It will be interesting to see if the Steelers have him travel with Collins at times. The 6-4, 222-pounder has posted three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and can win anywhere on the field. He left skid marks all over the Steelers’ secondary the last time they saw him.
Troy Montgomery: Steelers LT Dylan Cook vs. Texans DE Danielle Hunter. Cook has been great filling in for the injured Broderick Jones. However, he faces another big test this week. The Texans’ defense is going to try to rattle Aaron Rodgers, and Hunter has a lot of experience against the veteran quarterback. The two battled in the NFC North from 2015-2022. Hunter is a 10-year veteran, but he’s shown no signs of slowing down this year, posting 15 sacks. While Cook should receive help, he’s got to hold his own against Hunter.
Jake Brockhoff: Steelers OLB T.J. Watt vs. Texans RT Trent Brown. Watt played a lot of snaps returning from his lung issue last week. He was noticeably tired and understandably didn’t make a huge impact. But with the help of some luck, Watt did manage to come down with a massive interception on a tipped pass, one that helped turn momentum in the Steelers’ favor. If Watt can get acclimated a little more in his second game back, it will do wonders for the Steelers’ defense.
Dr. Melanie Friedlander: Texans DEs Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr vs. the Steelers offensive line. This two-man wrecking crew has accounted for 27 sacks and 45 quarterback hits this season so far, plus 35 tackles for loss. Pittsburgh’s offensive line will have their hands full on every snap to protect Aaron Rodgers as well as trying to establish a run game. Hunter and Anderson are a huge reason why the Texans are the top ranked defense in the league for yards allowed per game.
QUESTION 3: WHAT IS THE BIGGEST KEY TO THE GAME FOR THE STEELERS?
Josh Carney: Get out to an early lead, establish the run and negate that pass rush tandem. There’s plenty of hype (and some fear) surrounding the Texans’ pass rush tandem, and rightfully so. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. are great. But you can’t rush the passer if the opponent doesn’t need to throw the ball much. The Steelers have to get out to an early lead at home, establish the run and take advantage of the expected cold weather. That’s the best way to negate two star edge rushers.
Joe Clark: Score first. Put some pressure on the Texans. If they get out to an early lead, it’s going to be an uphill battle with how talented their defense is. If the Texans get up early, then they can bring lots of pressure with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. and allow their defense to be more opportunistic. Building an early advantage is a must to win this game.
Ross McCorkle: Stay out of one-dimensional situations. This means don’t fall behind and don’t fail on early downs. The best way to protect Aaron Rodgers is to keep this thing competitive and don’t waste early down. This also means limiting penalties on offense.
Scott Brown: Defense and/or special teams giving the offense a couple of short fields. The Texans’ defense is apparently some combination of the 2008 Steelers, 1985 Bears and a Russian winter. The Steelers will try to move the ball against it anyway. Chunk plays will help but not sure how many of those Steelers will muster even with DK Metcalf back. It’s probably more realistic to hope for some takeaways in Houston’s end of the field.
Troy Montgomery: Win the battle up front. The Steelers’ offensive line needs to play its best game this week. It can’t leave Aaron Rodgers under duress too often, and it also has to get some push in the run game. The Steelers will be in trouble if their offense becomes one-dimensional. Also, the Steelers’ defensive line can’t allow a middling Texans run game to get going. Houston’s offensive line isn’t perfect. The trenches will be key for Pittsburgh.
Jake Brockhoff: Aggressive defense, early and often. The Texans are not a team you want to hand an early lead to. Houston has a dominant defense, so the Steelers are going to have to match that themselves. If the unit can set a tone early, it should help the offense ease into the game. The last thing Pittsburgh wants to do is to have to play catchup, which has happened in just about every playoff game over the past decade.
Dr. Melanie Friedlander: Win the TOX differential. CJ Stroud has had phenomenal ball security this season. He has thrown only eight interceptions on 472 dropbacks in the regular season. He has only fumbled the ball twice but both were recovered. The other factor that goes into this score, explosive plays, is not the same strength for this offense. Despite their recent show in Los Angeles against the Chargers, the Texans rank near the bottom for explosive passing and rushing plays. The Steelers defense needs to find a way to limit explosive plays and win the turnover battle to give their own offense a chance.
QUESTION 4: WHAT IS YOUR PREDICTION FOR STEELERS VS. TEXANS?
Josh Carney: The Steelers haven’t lost a home Monday Night Football game since the year before I was born. The Texans have never won a road playoff game. Something has to give. While defense travels, nobody drags a team into the mud like Mike Tomlin’s teams. Pittsburgh’s playing good football late in the season. It translates in the playoffs. Steelers 17, Texans 16
Joe Clark: I think the Steelers have a shot here, but ultimately, this Texans defense will prove to be too much. An explosive touchdown pass will wind up being the difference. Texans 24, Steelers 17
Ross McCorkle: I had the Steelers winning the division and winning at least one playoff game in my preseason prediction, and I will stick that here against the Texans. It should be relatively low scoring, but playing in front of a home crowd means something. The Texans’ offensive line has struggled and a racous environment will amplify that with a constant silent count. Steelers 20, Texans 17.
Scott Brown: The ”other” defense at Acrisure Stadium rises up, and Mike Tomlin’s postseason losing streak ends at six games. Steelers 13, Texans 10
Troy Montgomery: The Texans have never won a road playoff game, but I don’t think the weather and atmosphere at Acrisure Stadium are going to be enough to get the Steelers the win. The Steelers love a good brawl, but the Texans can play that game, too. Their defense is the best unit in this game, and I think that’s enough for them to win. Texans 24, Steelers 16
Jake Brockhoff: If there’s a night in which the playoff losing streak will end, there’s reason to believe that night may be Monday. The Steelers have figured a lot of things out, and will be playing in front of a raucous crowd against a franchise which has never won a road playoff game before. This Texans team is good, but beatable. I think the Steelers pull one out at home. Steelers 23, Texans 20
Dr. Melanie Friedlander: This is a tough matchup for a Steelers offense that has struggled against teams with a strong pass rush. The Texans are 0-6 in playoff games on the road but this is a different team and roster than the one that lost to Kansas City in the divisional round last year. Despite the Vegas prediction, I expect a defensive battle and a low scoring game that comes down to the final minutes. Steelers 20, Texans 17