Brendan O’Sullivan takes you through his preview, prediction and pick for the New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers NFL Wild Card Weekend matchup.

Sunday Night Football this week features the No. 2 Patriots vs. the No. 7 Chargers in the NFL playoffs. It’s the final game of Sunday’s slate and second to last Wild Card matchup of the weekend.

New England cruised to a 14-3 record, winning the AFC East for the first time since Tom Brady was the starting quarterback. Meanwhile, Los Angeles snuck into the postseason with an 11-6 record.

The Patriots are 3.5-point favorites and -185 on the moneyline, while the Chargers are +154 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 45.5 points.

Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Sunday’s Patriots vs. Chargers matchup.

Patriots vs. Chargers prediction, preview

This is the first time the Patriots made the playoffs since 2021 and just the second time since Brady left the organization. It may seem like a long time for New England fans, but others may wish the absence was longer.

No matter which side you fall on, the Patriots are back atop the AFC East, holding the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Drake Maye is an MVP candidate and leads a strong team into Wild Card Weekend. The Patriots started the season 1-2 but went 13-1 to conclude the season at 14-3 overall.

The one caveat of this record is the Patriots had the weakest strength of schedule this season. Part of this is due to a weak AFC East division, but the non-division games featured the Raiders (L), Steelers (L), Panthers (W), Saints (W), Titans (W), Browns (W), Falcons (W), Buccaneers (W), Bengals (W), Giants (W) and Ravens (W).

While this is somewhat concerning, the Chargers also had a bottom-third strength of schedule. They ranked 24th and had some bad losses throughout the season. Los Angeles dropped games to the Giants and Commanders, but it also defeated teams like the Eagles and Broncos.

The Chargers ended the season on a two-game losing streak, falling to the Texans and Broncos, but Justin Herbert didn’t play in the Week 18 loss. Still, it’s not the momentum a team would like heading into the playoffs, especially against the Patriots.

New England features a top five offense, ranking No. 2 in offensive points and No. 3 in offensive yards. It also ranks No. 4 for points allowed and No. 8 for yards allowed. This isn’t a one-sided football team; it’s a well-rounded squad that’s capable of making playoff noise.

Meanwhile, the Chargers lean on their defense, as they rank No. 9 in points allowed and No. 5 in yards allowed. The offense isn’t as sharp, but it still has the 12th most overall yards this season.

Patriots vs. Chargers pick, best bet

In addition to strength of schedule, neither team is that experienced in the playoffs. These factors could play a role for deep postseason runs, but it cancels out for this matchup.

New England is the better squad on both offense and defense. Sure, this is Maye’s playoff debut, but it’s Herbert’s third playoff game. Patriots win this at home and cover the -3.5 spread

Best bet: Patriots -3.5 (-108)