Stan Son preps you for the Monday Night Football contest between the Texans and Steelers with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

The Houston Texans lost the first three games of the season. They ended the regular season with nine straight wins. The Pittsburgh Steelers only have two winning streaks on the season but finished with the No. 4 seed and home field advantage for this one.

These are not your grandfather’s Pittsburgh Steelers, as it’s been a dink-and-dunk fest with Aaron Rodgers under center. The pass rate is eighth at 58.81% while the neutral dropback rate is 13th. The EPA per dropback is 13th-lowest but Rodgers has thrown 26 touchdowns to only nine interceptions while taking only 31 sacks. The rushing offense is 13th in EPA per carry, averaging 4.3 yards per carry while scoring 16 touchdowns.

The Pittsburgh defense hasn’t been Charmin-soft, but it’s a far cry from the Steel Curtain. The Steelers are 13th in EPA per carry. Man, Pittsburgh sure is consistent huh? The unit has allowed 4.3 yards per carry and only 10 rushing touchdowns, the third-lowest in the NFL. Pittsburgh is 16th in EPA per dropback with 30 touchdowns. The unit has racked up 15 interceptions and 48 sacks, the fifth-most. The pressure rate is 19th.

Houston is 14th in EPA per dropback on offense. It’s thrown 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions. The completion percentage is 62.5% but only 31 sacks have been taken. The rushing attack has been almost non-existent, posting the fourth-lowest EPA per carry with 3.9 yards per carry and nine touchdowns.

The Texans are all about defense and Houston has one of the best in the league. The EPA per carry is 10th-lowest with 4.0 yards per carry allowed and 13 touchdowns. The secondary is one of the best units, allowing Houston to post the lowest EPA per dropback. Only 20 touchdowns have been allowed while the unit has racked up 19 interceptions. The 59.3 completion percentage is the third-lowest. The pressure rate is 20th while the 47 sacks are tied for the sixth-most.

DraftKings Sportsbook has HOU -3 over PIT with the total at 38.5.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (HOU @ PIT)

Captain’s Picks

Dalton Schultz ($9,600 CP): Houston is terrible at running the ball so things may tilt toward the air. In addition, Pittsburgh can pressure the quarterback, so the quick-hitting routes may be on the menu, with many of those to the tight end position. Schultz is second on the team with 106 targets and Pittsburgh has allowed the fourth-most FPTS to the position on average. Schultz has finished with double-digit FPTS nine times this season with a high of 21.6 FPTS. The price and matchup are very appealing.

UTIL Plays

C.J. Stroud ($10,200): Stroud has exceeded 20 FPTS only twice this season, so a ceiling outcome is unlikely. In addition, the total for this game is sub-40, so not many points are expected to be scored. That said, if the Texans are able to do anything on offense, I think it will be through the air. Since I like Schultz to get busy, it only makes sense to think Stroud will do some things as well.

Kenneth Gainwell ($8,800): Houston has one of the best cornerback rooms in the league, so the wide receivers will likely have difficulty in this matchup. I’d focus on the tight ends and running backs. Gainwell is second on the team with 85 targets and also has 40 red zone opportunities. Gainwell has four games over 20 FPTS this season with a high of 31.4 FPTS.

Pat Freiermuth ($5,000): It was a three-headed tight end monster in Pittsburgh for much of the season, but with the injury to Darnell Washington, it’s been shaved down to two. Freiermuth has received five targets in three of the last four games. He got four targets in that other one. As mentioned in the Gainwell section, the wide receivers should find life difficult in this one, so the short attack of Rodgers will likely funnel to the running backs and tight ends.

Fades

DK Metcalf ($9,400): Only four wide receivers have exceeded 100 yards against the Texans secondary – Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Khalil Shakir and Alec Pierce. Metcalf is no Puka or JSN, is not a short-area specialist like Shakir, and Rodgers rarely goes down the field to make it a Pierce-like game. Is it possible? Absolutely, but the matchup lowers that probability immensely while the price makes the risk/reward difficult.

THE OUTCOME

I’m not expecting many points to be scored in this one but think the Texans can eke out the victory because I have the utmost respect for the Texans pass defense.

Final Score: Texans 16, Steelers 13