It’s just like old times in New England, as the Patriots are back in the AFC Divisional Round for the first time since 2018. Awaiting them at Gillette Stadium on Sunday afternoon (3 p.m. ET, ESPN) will be the Houston Texans, who have won 10 straight and boast the NFL’s best defense.
How should the Patriots go about dealing with that defense, and where can they exploit C.J. Stroud and Co. on the other side of the ball? We’re tackling those questions and more in another postseason edition of the Mailbag.
Let’s get to it:
Editor’s Note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity.
Are you more confident in the Patriots o-line performing better than last week (particularly the left side) or the Patriots defense having a repeat performance from last week? — @kylemarsden441
Hey, Kyle. The key to this game, in my opinion, will be how the Patriots offensive line will hold up against Houston’s pass-rushers, and it’d be hard to predict that any pass-protection unit would have a better performance against arguably the most talented complement of rushers in the league.
Will Campbell and Jared Wilson and the rest of the line can, however, right some of their wrongs from last week. They can improve technique issues that led to pressure against the Chargers. They may be able to use their opponent’s speed and aggression against them to help create chunk gains. Still… that Texans front, led by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, represent a massive challenge.
To answer your question, there should probably be more confidence among the fanbase that the Patriots can replicate what they did to Justin Herbert against C.J. Stroud.
Herbert looked panicked and confused by New England’s variety of coverages and blitz packages in the Wild Card Round, and Stroud didn’t look much more comfortable in Pittsburgh on Monday. If defensive play-caller Zak Kuhr can dial up some disguises, that might flummox Stroud. And if Stroud is flummoxed, watch out.
While under pressure, Stroud ranked 27th out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks with a 5.7 turnover-worthy play percentage and a rating of 60.9, according to Pro Football Focus. Getting Stroud into obvious passing situations will be critical to Kuhr getting the opportunity to dial up disguises and blitzes, but the Patriots should have some success against the Texans’ early-down rush plan. Houston ranked 29th in EPA per rush this season.
Is this game won or lost with the line of scrimmage? Can the Patriots keep Drake Maye not under pressure all game and can the Patriots get to Stroud? Seems like Stroud got flustered little bit under pressure Monday night, which caused some turnovers. — @JSmall3269
Let’s stick with the Stroud end of things here. We’ll get to the Patriots offense in just a second. What’s interesting about Stroud is that while he’s struggled under pressure, he’s been pretty good since his return from injury in Week 13 when blitzed.
The suggestion there is that he sees it coming, gets the ball out before he’s pressured, and creates positive plays. His completion percentage when blitzed (66.0), yards per attempt (8.3) and sack rate (3.7) are all among the top 10 in the NFL in that time.
Of course, the Patriots could simply blitz him anyway. Herbert came into the Wild Card Round as one of the best against the blitz and left having been unable to score a touchdown against New England’s blitz-happy (45.5 percent blitz rate) plan.
Do you think we use the Jumbo package quite a bit more this weekend against this deadly pass rush? Or do you think it is just going to be more schemed up for quick throws and possibly designed runs for Maye? — @jordsmith897561
I thought that package would be used much more against the Chargers. But Thayer Munford Jr. — typically the “Jumbo” tight end — played only four snaps. One of those came on the lone touchdown pass of the night to Hunter Henry, when the Patriots deployed a 13-personnel look with three tight ends, asking Munford to block on the edge.
Perhaps that was due to Munford dealing with a knee issue during the week that limited him to just two practices prior to the game. But the Patriots did seem bent on going with some heavier groupings against the Chargers, with fullback Jack Westover playing 26 snaps and second tight end Austin Hooper playing 38.
Utilizing a similar plan this weekend could prove beneficial because if it helps them run the football, there’s no better way to protect Drake Maye than to hand it off successfully. And then if they’re running successfully, the Texans have had their issues with play-action passes.
Since Week 13, they’ve allowed the fifth-highest EPA per play against play-action shots (0.31). Their quarterback rating allowed on those plays is 108.0, and they’re given up 8.2 yards per attempt, per Sports Info Solutions.
Expect to see quick throws from Maye, too. Expect him to utilize his legs both in scramble situations (to bail himself out of trouble or to take advantage of over-aggressive rushers) and designed ones (to keep edge defenders honest). But turning to more heavy personnel plays — both runs and passes — seems like a wise approach against this type of defense.
Glenn Gleason/NBC Sports Boston
Glenn Gleason/NBC Sports Boston
Drake Maye will need to be smart with the football this Sunday against a fierce Texans defense.
We know the Texans defense is great. But, in your opinion, what are one or two areas the Patriots offense could potentially exploit the Texans defense and have success on Sunday? — @jabo1331
Let’s start on the ground, Jacob. Good news for the Patriots? The Texans have struggled at times to prevent quarterbacks from using their legs. Since Week 13, they’ve allowed the fourth-highest EPA per carry on quarterback runs (not including quarterback sneaks or kneels) and the ninth-most yards per attempt (7.8).
If their ends get too aggressive up the field — if they are at all undisciplined in their twists up front and leave open rush lanes — Maye’s athleticism could be the difference in this game.
It might also not be a bad idea for Josh McDaniels to dial up New England’s “gap” play, more commonly known as “Duo.” With double-teams at the line of scrimmage and linemen who are willing to get downhill, the Patriots could generate positive yardage. Since Week 13, the Texans have allowed the seventh-highest EPA per carry against “Duo” and the fourth-most yards per attempt (5.2), according to SIS.
Through the air, Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper could be factors given that over the last seven weeks, the Texans have allowed a quarterback rating of 123.8 when tight ends are targeted, which is ninth-highest in the NFL.
Additionally — and this may speak to the at-times over-aggressive nature of Houston’s front — screens to any position could have some success. The Texans have allowed the third-most yards per attempt on screens (12.0) and the most EPA per play on those types of throws (0.92) since Week 13.
The Patriots don’t call many screens — only nine in the last seven weeks — but might that change against this particular defense? We know McDaniels has a litany in his playbook, but whether or not they’re deployed could come down to his personnel and their ability to execute those calls.
Greetings from original England. Which first-year players, beyond OL, need to step up vs Texans to increase the chances of victory? — @leedaleuk
Good one, Lee. And shout-out to Original England. I was born just outside London and lived in Berkhamsted for the first few months of my life before our family moved back to New England. My parents loved it there.
I’d look at TreVeyon Henderson as a key rookie in this one because I think the run game will be so important (not to mention the screen game, if they can get that up and running).
Safety Craig Woodson also has to be on this list due to the fact that he plays so many snaps. But he also could play a crucial role in slowing down Houston tight end Dalton Schultz, who was sixth in receiving yardage among tight ends this year (777).