Rank 7. Denver Broncos
No. 1 seed · 14-3
Total confidence score: 12 pts (of a possible 40)
Super Bowl odds: +700
This probably seems pretty low for a team that lost three games all year and gripped the top spot in the AFC standings for the final five weeks of the regular season. Their defense is a force (fifth in the NFL in EPA per play in the regular season), and their offense is respectable (10th in EPA per play). So what gives? Well, their schedule to date featured just six games against playoff-qualifying opponents, including two of their losses — and it’s not like they rampaged through the year, compiling a league-high 11 one-score wins and a point differential (+90) that stands below the rest of the surviving AFC field (+170 for the Patriots, +116 for the Bills and +109 for the Texans). Then there’s Bo Nix, who didn’t exactly dazzle down the stretch, throwing more TD passes than picks in two of his last nine games leading into his second career postseason start. The advantages of being the No. 1 seed are real, but can Denver rip off another winning streak against more dominant, experienced opponents, starting this weekend with the Bills? We have to pencil in a big, fat “TBD” for now, which is why the Broncos sit here. — Tom Blair