The Buffalo Bills are coming off a hard-fought win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card Round of the AFC playoffs. The Denver Broncos, meanwhile, are coming off a bye week after earning the AFC’s one seed via a 14-3 regular season. Buffalo’s injury report reads like a CVS receipt. Denver’s injury report reads like a Hemingway novel.
The bell tolls for both teams this weekend, as a trip to the AFC Championship Game awaits either Denver or Buffalo. And while the sun also rises after a loss, each team would much prefer the sound of victory to the fury that follows defeat.
The general premise of this article series is to name five individual players who will impact Buffalo’s upcoming matchup. This week, I’m breaking the rules. Here are the Bills players and positional groups that will have the biggest impact on this weekend’s matchup at Mile High.
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Easy. Buffalo’s quarterback continued his exceptional postseason play last week, completing 80% of his passes, totaling over 300 total yards and three touchdowns, and going without a turnover in Buffalo’s 27-24 victory. Allen was decisive and precise in his reads, his throws were accurate and crisp, and he was able to create time and space with his legs, which gave him extra yardage rushing and passing.
Allen also proved his toughness, as the Jaguars’ plan to hit him hard early and often was unable to end Allen’s afternoon. He may be on the injury report with multiple issues this week, but he’s good to go.
I’m less concerned with Allen’s physical status than I am with his mental status once the game begins. The Broncos are a man-heavy defense, but teams that have broken their tendencies against the Bills this year and played more zone when Allen and offensive coordinator Joe Brady have expected man are the ones that have given the Buffalo fits. If Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph can disguise his coverage to look like man when he’s playing zone, it’s going to make Allen hold the ball longer than he wants to against a truly elite pass rush.
Allen has to be ready to diagnose Denver’s defense and know where his hot receivers are at all times. He has to be the same guy he was last weekend, which is a player who was content to take four yards on 1st & 10, and not the guy who wanted to throw a 40-yard score on every play.
If Allen keeps Buffalo’s offense ahead of the chains and ensures that every possession ends in a kick of some kind, then the Bills should be in good shape.
Also easy. Buffalo must be able to run the ball in order to maximize their potential on offense. Especially in a game where the Bills’ already-poor receiving corps has been decimated by injuries, the running backs are infinitely more important than they already are. Cook had a tough time finding room against Jacksonville’s top-ranked run defense last Sunday, and the sledding isn’t going to be much easier this weekend against Denver’s second-ranked run defense.
Adding to the difficulty is third-down running back Ty Johnson’s questionable availability. Johnson missed last week’s game with an ankle injury, and while he was able to practice in a limited capacity on Thursday, he’s still legitimately questionable heading into Saturday’s matchup. If Johnson can’t go, that means Cook has to play more snaps, and he’ll have to play snaps where he’s used in pass protection, something that has never been a strong suit of his. Buffalo needs to find ways to use Cook on chip-release looks, a tactic that could use Denver’s aggressive pass rush and blitz schemes against them.
That’s easier said than done, however. Cook was successful against this Broncos front last season in the playoffs, rushing 23 times for 120 yards and a score. Denver’s run defense was ranked third last season. Of this year’s starting front seven players for the Broncos, four of them still start for the team. That’s not to say that we should expect the same results — linebackers Alex Singleton and Dre Greenlaw are big-time defenders who didn’t play for the Broncos in that Wild Card game — but it also suggests that the Bills can find some space against Denver’s run defense despite the numbers. Buffalo’s rushing offense versus Denver’s rushing defense is going to be a big matchup.
Five linemen, five players to watch. It’s impossible to put the onus on one of the Bills’ big fellas up front because they’re all vital to the team’s success. The Broncos led the NFL with 68 sacks this season. That comes just one year after they had 63 sacks. In the Wild Card game last season, Buffalo allowed two sacks. It’s unlikely that the Bills are going to pitch a shutout against such a good defense. However, they need to communicate clearly on blitzes and stunts, and they need to keep No. 17 upright. They also need to clear the way for James Cook in the run game.
Buffalo’s offensive linemen have one big advantage over Denver’s defensive linemen, and that’s size. Left guard David Edwards is Buffalo’s smallest offensive lineman at 6’6” and 305 pounds. Denver’s edge rushers, Jonathon Cooper (257 pounds) and Nik Bonitto (240 pounds) are fearsome pass-rushers, but if the Bills’ big maulers at offensive tackle — and tight ends like Jackson Hawes and Dawson Knox — can throw their literal weight around, they have an advantage in the run game.
Denver’s beef on the defensive line comes from two rotating nose tackles, D.J. Jones and Eyimoa Uwazurike. The interior line is going to be put in a bind, as they can’t really help the edges with a pair of massive gap-pluggers in the middle.
That means Buffalo’s offensive line will have to win its one-on-ones, but Joe Brady can’t make the same mistake he did against the Texans earlier this season when he left the team in five-man protections despite the clear failure to protect from that set. The offensive line needs to continue its strong play, but the game plan needs to account for helping the offensive line do its job to the best of the group’s capabilities.
Denver’s second-year quarterback, Bo Nix, is extremely mobile. He can extend plays with his legs to throw downfield just as easily as he can run for first downs. With this in mind, the mirror/fire player is going to be an essential part of the game plan. Buffalo loves to use a spy on mobile quarterbacks, but rather than just following that player, the Bills often design their pass rush to flush the quarterback to a particular spot. Once they flush him, the spy is waiting to “fire” and take him down. This isn’t a unique tactic, but it’s one that Buffalo has done well throughout the season.
Often, the Bills give looks early in games where they don’t use a spy with particular coverages, but they then go back to similar coverage looks later in games and add the spy. That wrinkle often makes for solid outcomes for defense. Milano is often the player that Buffalo uses as the mirror, but he’s just as adept in coverage as he is spying quarterbacks. He played quite well last week, notching five tackles, one pass breakup, and one tackle for loss. Milano and linebacker Shaq Thompson combined to play quite well, and with linebacker Terrel Bernard (calf) questionable, it could add more depth to Buffalo’s defense if their captain is ready to contribute.
For the record, I’d leave Thompson in as the primary middle linebacker given his success this season combined with the defense’s stellar performance when he’s on the field. It’s allowed Milano to have a resurgence of sorts this season. If Milano can deliver a few timely big hits in the game, he’s capable of forcing a turnover at any time.
The Broncos were -3 in turnover differential this season, the only AFC club with a negative differential to make the postseason. Buffalo, for what it’s worth, has the second-worst differential in the AFC field at +1. It could come down to a big play, and Milano has made a career on making them.
I’m indecisive here, so take your pick: Do you like cornerback Tre’Davious White against Courtland Sutton, or should that be cornerback Christian Benford’s mark this weekend? Who is going to run with speedster Troy Franklin now that rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston has been declared out?
Will safety Cole Bishop continue his star turn without veteran safety Jordan Poyer, who will miss the game thanks to a hamstring injury? Will the Bills start the known entity in defensive back Cam Lewis at safety with Bishop, or do they go with the potentially dynamic rookie in Jordan Hancock? Or, do they swerve entirely and have veteran safety Damar Hamlin start in what could be his first game back off Injured Reserve?
There are a lot of questions to ask in the defensive secondary, and against a Broncos team that doesn’t run the football much (they were just 19th in rushing attempts this season) or very effectively (they were 16th in rushing yards and 15th in yards per rush), that means it’s likely going to be the passing game that Denver tries to leverage to drive themselves to victory. The Broncos were fourth in passing attempts on the season. Do they break tendency and try to run against Buffalo’s porous run defense?
Whether they’re coming up in run support or trying to bottle up Bo Nix and the Broncos’ passing offense, the Bills’ secondary needs to be on point in this game.