Brendan O’Sullivan takes you through his preview, prediction and pick for the Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos NFL Divisional Round matchup.

The Bills advanced to the Divisional Round after a 27-24 victory over the Jaguars. Their reward is a road matchup with the No. 1 seed Broncos.

Denver is a 1.5-point favorite and -112 on the moneyline, while Buffalo is -108 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 46.5 points.

Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Saturday’s Bills vs. Broncos matchup.

Bills vs. Broncos prediction, preview

Don’t sleep on the Bills just because they’re the No. 6 seed. This is a veteran squad that’s reached the playoffs for the seventh consecutive season. Buffalo finished 2025 with a 12-5 record, just two games behind the Broncos’ 14-3 finish.

Besides postseason experience, the Bills have the advantage of playing during Wild Card Weekend. Sure, a bye is comfortable, but it’s not always the best preparation for a playoff game. The Bills played a tense matchup against the Jaguars, which not only welcomed them into the postseason, but it kept the team’s weekly flow on track. A bye can sometimes throw a team off their game.

Sure, one could argue that a bye week is beneficial. Time off to rest is good, but it could hurt a team, too, as mentioned before.

Outside of rest advantage/disadvantage, the Broncos have the better defense, ranking second in yards and third in points allowed. Comparatively, the Bills have allowed the 12th fewest points and seventh fewest yards. The offense is flipped, as the Bills have the advantage with the fourth most points and yards, while the Broncos have the 14th most points and 10th most yards.

Don’t let the records or seeding fog your judgement. This game is as close as the spread indicates. It could come down to a final play, just as many of the Wild Card games have.

Bills vs. Broncos pick, best bet

The Broncos haven’t reached the Divisional Round since 2015—the year they won the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Bills have played in this round for six straight years. The one caveat with that statistic is that Buffalo has won a Divisional Round matchup just twice in those previous five appearances.

This year is different, however, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow are all missing from the 2025 playoffs. This is as good of an opportunity as Buffalo will get to reach the Super Bowl. First up, however, is a road victory in Denver.

Best bet: Buffalo Bills ML (-108)