The Tampa Bay Buccaneers absorbed a painful Week 17 loss at Miami last Sunday and, just a day later, received another dose of bad news when the Atlanta Falcons upset the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night. That sets up a potentially long weekend for the 7-9 Buccaneers in which they battle the 8-8 Carolina Panthers at Raymond James Stadium with the NFC South title on the line Saturday, then wait for Sunday to see what happens when the New Orleans Saints visit Atlanta.

It call comes down to the possibility of shifting tiebreakers. If the Buccaneers and Panthers are tied at 8-9 at season’s end, Tampa Bay will take the division on a common-games tiebreaker; however, if Atlanta enters the fray as a third 8-9 team, the relevant tiebreaker would be head-to-head record between all three clubs and the Panthers’ sweep of the Falcons would carry the day.

It’s a minor complication with particularly major results for the Buccaneers, but for now it has nothing to do with their task at hand.

“I don’t think that changes anything,” said Head Coach Todd Bowles of the Rams’ Monday night loss. “We just have to win the game on Saturday and then we’ll see. We’ve made this bed [and] we understand that. We can’t do anything on Sunday unless we win Saturday.”

It will be the second meeting in the span of 14 days between Tampa Bay and Carolina, and the Buccaneers would be in much better shape in their quest for a fifth straight division title if they had won the first one in Charlotte in Week 16. Unfortunately, Carolina kicked a go-ahead field goal late in the fourth quarter and held on to a 23-20 win when Baker Mayfield’s last pass was intercepted in Panthers territory.

If it wasn’t already obvious, the Bucs’ current four-game losing streak has underscored the absolute importance of ball security. Each of those four losses has featured at least one Tampa Bay turnover in the second half, and the last three have seen them occur at critical moments in the fourth quarter. Every turnover had its own story and not all of them can be laid at Mayfield’s feet. As Bowles said, the Buccaneers have to correct that problem as a team, and they are down to their last chance to do so.

“Maybe certain throws, maybe in the fourth quarter on certain throws,” said Bowles on whether Mayfield has been trying to shoulder too much responsibility for an offense that has struggled to maintain momentum for 60 minutes. “I don’t think all of the time. I think there are maybe certain throws he’d like to have back. We’ve just got to take care of the football better. It seems like it comes down to it, and we turn it over, whether it’s scheme, whether it’s blocking or whether it’s quarterback play. We’ve got to take care of the football better. That’s kind of costing us a lot.”

Mayfield himself has focused this week on the need for offensive execution this Saturday, particularly against such a familiar and recent opponent.

“It just comes down to executing, doing your job the best way you possibly can,” he said. “You know each other very well, to begin with, being an in-division opponent, and then after that it’s [that] you’re not having a bunch of wrinkles from the time between games is not very much. You can’t change the game plan up a whole lot, just go out there and execute it and adjust to what they did well and what we did well.”

Two weeks ago, the Buccaneers followed a run-heavy script against the Panthers and did succeed in rushing for 169 yards and creating a time-of-possession advantage of nearly 10 minutes, though it did not ultimately produce a victory. Offensive Coordinator Josh Grizzard obviously is not revealing any specifics of the offensive game plan for the rematch, but he did stress the importance of running it well early in the contest.

“Really, with every week we play, we want to try to establish the run early,” said Grizzard. “When it comes to how much that’s going to happen, how efficient those are…we talked last time about earning the right to run the ball that many times – whether it’s versus Carolina or anybody we play – where if you’re able to be efficient and explosive then you earn the right to be able to keep the pressure on them by running it. We always want to be able to start the games like that and then be able to adjust as it goes. We’ll see how it shakes out on Saturday.”

While Carolina’s run defense only ranks 19th in the NFL in 2025, that’s still a massive improvement over last year, when it was dead last, allowing nearly 190 yards per game. Much of that has to do with the return of defensive tackle Derrick Brown from injury and such free agency additions as safety Tre’von Moehrig, linebacker Christian Rozeboom and defensive tackle Turk Wharton.

“That was one of the first things we noticed when we put the tape on a couple weeks ago, how different it was than playing them – I guess it was Week 17 last year – and being able to have 95 (Brown) and 94 (A’Shawn Robinson) in the middle. Those guys are hard to move whether it’s in the run game or the pass game. They do an unbelievable job. Then, getting Moehrig in free agency, he plays a hybrid linebacker/nickel/safety role and he is very physical. He sets edges in the run game.”

Whether the Buccaneers succeed in pounding the rock in the run game, air it out with their quartet of standout receivers or find some healthy balance in between, they’ll need some sort of offensive efficiency to get the one last win they have to have to keep their division-title five-peat hopes alive. At the very least, they are going to enjoy the moment.

“They’re always fun, they’re always fun,” said Wirfs of games against a heated division rival. “Division games are always competitive. This one will be highly competitive, [playing] for the division to go to the playoffs. It’s going to be a really fun game. Can’t wait.”

GAME AND BROADCAST DETAILS

Carolina Panthers (8-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)

Saturday, January 3, 4:30 p.m. ET

Raymond James Stadium (capacity: 65,844)

TV Broadcast Team: Chris Fowler (play-by-play), Dan Orlovsky and Louis Riddick (analysts), Katie George and Peter Schrager (reporters)

Radio: 98Rock (WXTB, 97.9 FM), Flagship Station

Radio Broadcast Team: Gene Deckerhoff (play-by-play), Dave Moore (analyst), T.J. Rives (reporter)

Spanish Radio: 96.1 Caliente

Spanish Radio Broadcast Team: Martin Gramática, Santiago Gramática

Coming to the game or enjoying pregame festivities? Check out our Buccaneers Gameday Page for everything you need to know about getting ready for the game, Tailgate Packages, Bucs Beach and more!

The 2025 season is underway and there are a limited number of Single Game Tickets on sale now! Visit Buccaneers.com to purchase tickets.

ALL-TIME HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES

After their Week 16 win in Charlotte, the Panthers lead the all-time series with the Buccaneers, 26-24, but the Buccaneers have tightened up the series considerably by winning nine of the last 11 meetings and 11 of the last 14. That includes consecutive season sweeps in 2020 and 2021, the first time the Bucs had managed that against Carolina since the NFC South was formed in 2002. They then duplicated that feat in 2023 and 2024

The Buccaneers and Panthers also met three times before realignment put them in the same division, including a contest in Death Valley that the Bucs won, 20-13, in the Panthers’ 1995 inaugural season.

Carolina’s most recent win was a close one, with rookie safety Lathan Ransom intercepting Baker Mayfield in Panthers territory in the game’s final minute to seal a 23-20 decision. Bryce Young threw for 191 yards and two touchdowns, including a backbreaker with seven seconds left in the first half on a 22-yard pass to rookie WR Tetairoa McMillan.

Last season’s sweep of the Panthers included two very different types of victory. The first was a dramatic 26-23 victory in overtime in Charlotte in Week 13. Bryce Young threw a 25-yard touchdown pass to Adam Thielen to give Carolina a 23-20 lead with 30 seconds left in regulation. Mayfield was able to drive the Bucs into position for Chase McLaughlin to hit a game-tying 51-yard field goal as time expired. Tampa Bay won the overtime coin toss but McLaughlin missed a 55-yard field goal and the Panthers subsequently drove into Buccaneers territory before Anthony Nelson forced a Chuba Hubbard fumble that was recovered by Yaya Diaby. A 38-yard run by Rachaad White set McLaughlin up for the 30-yard game-winner. In the rematch in Tampa in Week 17, the Bucs took the drama out of it, opening up a 27-7 lead by the second quarter and cruising to a 48-14 decision. Mayfield threw five touchdown passes against no interceptions, including two scores each to Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan.

The Buccaneers got another season sweep in 2023, with both games occurring in the last six weeks of the season. The first meeting was in Week 13, which the Buccaneers won 21-18 in Tampa. On a rainy afternoon and early evening, the Bucs outlasted a game Panthers squad thanks to wide receiver Chris Godwin’s 19-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter on an end-around. That gave the home team an 11-point lead, which the Panthers shaved to three on Hubbard’s one-yard touchdown run with five minutes to go. Carolina got the ball back with 3:31 to play but safety Antoine Winfield Jr. saved the Bucs with an interception near midfield. In the rematch in Charlotte in Week 18, Winfield made another critical play, stripping Panthers wide receiver D.J. Chark of the ball inches before the goal line on what seemed certain to be a 43-yard touchdown. That play helped preserve a shutout as the two teams combined for just 447 yards of offense and all the points in a 9-0 decision came on McLaughlin field goals.

Since the two teams started playing each other twice a year, the head-to-head battle has traditionally been one-sided in any given season, though that side often flips back and forth. From 2002-17, 13 of the 16 season series between these two teams ended in a sweep, including every one from 2009 through 2017. It went Carolina’s way in 2003, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2017. The Bucs got the sweep in 2002, 2010, 2012 and 2016 plus the ones mentioned above, and now the Panthers have a chance to claim another one this year. Interestingly, the three splits came in years the Buccaneers either made the playoffs (2005, 2007) or really should have (2008…which ended in a four-game losing streak after a 9-3 start).

The 2022 head-to-head, however, was a split, with each team winning at home. Carolina handed the Bucs perhaps their most humbling loss of the season in Week Seven, a 21-3 drubbing at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. The Panthers came into the game with a 1-5 record and had recently fired Head Coach Matt Rhule and traded superstar running back Christian McCaffrey. Third-string quarterback P.J. Walker completed 16 of his 22 passes and tossed two touchdowns against no interceptions and running backs D’Onta Foreman and Hubbard combined for 181 rushing yards.

The rematch in Week 17 proved to be one of the Buccaneers’ most important wins in recent years as it clinched the team’s second straight NFC South title and made a potential divisional free-for-all in Week 18 moot. It didn’t come easily, as the Panthers rushed out to a quick 14-0 lead on two Sam Darnold touchdown passes, but Tom Brady solved the problem by repeatedly throwing moon shots to Mike Evans. Evans caught touchdown passes of 63, 57 and 30 yards and finished the game with 207 yards on 10 grabs. His last one put the Bucs in the lead for the first time in the fourth quarter, and a Brady touchdown run provided the final winning margin in a 30-24 squeaker.

The Bucs and Panthers met twice in the final three weeks of the 2021 season, with Tampa Bay taking both contests by a combined score of 73-23. In the regular season finale, the Buccaneers got 137 receiving yards from Rob Gronkowski and two touchdown receptions from Evans before wideout Scotty Miller capped the scoring by taking an end-around 33 yards for a touchdown. Two weeks earlier, the Buccaneers had prevailed at Bank of America Stadium when the defense sacked quarterbacks Darnold and Cam Newton a total of seven times and allowing just two field goals. Safety Jordan Whitehead had a key interception and three pass break-ups. Ke’Shawn Vaughn’s 55-yard touchdown jaunt, the Bucs’ longest run of the year, started the scoring and emerging wideout Cyril Grayson accounted for 95 yards of offense, including a 62-yard reception.

In 2020, the Bucs’ September win at home against Carolina was the first of 15 they would stack up on their way to a Super Bowl championship, and the first win as a Buccaneer for Brady. Leonard Fournette paced the offense with 116 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns and Carlton Davis and Whitehead each had interceptions off Teddy Bridgewater in a 31-17 decision. The rematch in Charlotte in November was a high-scoring affair that included the longest run in Buccaneers’ history, Ronald Jones’ 98-yard touchdown dash. Incredibly, the Buccaneers scored on 10 straight possessions to pull away from the Panthers for a 46-23 win.

In 2019, the Buccaneers secured a tight win in Charlotte on a Thursday night in Week Two when Vernon Hargreaves knocked McCaffrey out of bounds two yards shy of the sticks on an all-or-nothing fourth-down run off a direct snap. That 20-14 Bucs win was balanced four weeks later by a 37-26 win for Carolina in a game played in London.

Perhaps the most notable wins for Tampa Bay in the series with Carolina came in 2002 and 2005. At the midpoint of the 2002 Super Bowl campaign, the Buccaneers were coming off a deflating loss in Philadelphia (again) and had to play at Carolina without their quarterback, Brad Johnson, who woke up with the flu. Defense dominated and the Bucs were trailing 9-6 late in the fourth quarter before Martin Gramatica saved the day with two long field goals. In 2005, the Buccaneers were in the middle of a late-season three-game road swing when they went to Bank of America Stadium and won a battle for first place by a 20-10 score. Ronde Barber punctuated that game with a sack and a critical interception, becoming the first cornerback ever to reach 40 interceptions and 25 sacks in his career.

Dave Canales is in his second year as the Panthers’ head coach, landing that job after his excellent one-season performance as the Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator. Canales helped Baker Mayfield revive his career, as the veteran quarterback threw for 4,044 yards and a career-high 28 touchdowns in 2023.
When Canales left the Buccaneers for the Panthers, he was followed by three former members of Tampa Bay’s offensive coaching staff. Brad Idzik, who tutored the receivers for Tampa Bay in 2023, is Canales’s offensive coordinator, while Assistant Head Coach/Run Game Coordinator Harold Goodwin and Offensive Line Coach Joe Gilbert landed in similar positions in Charlotte.
Buccaneers General Manager Jason Licht was a member of the Panthers’ scouting staff in 1998.
Mayfield spent the majority of the 2022 season with the Panthers. He was traded to Carolina by the Cleveland Browns in July of 2022 and subsequently won a preseason competition with Sam Darnold to earn the opening-day starting job under center. He played in seven games with six starts for the Panthers before being waived in December and claimed by the Rams.
Mayfield’s primary backup in 2025, Teddy Bridgewater, played for the Panthers in 2020, starting 15 games and throwing for 3,733 yards, 15 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He signed a three-year deal with Carolina during the 2020 offseason but was traded to the Denver Broncos a year later.
Outside linebacker Haason Reddick, who is in his first season in Tampa, signed a one-year deal with the Panthers as an unrestricted free agent in 2021 after a breakout 12.5 season with the Arizona Cardinals. Reddick posted 11 sacks for the Panthers and then moved on to the Eagles on a long-term deal a year later.
Panthers WR David Moore, who is currently on injured reserve, played for the Buccaneers in 2023, splitting the season between the practice squad and the active roster. Moore got into seven games and contributed five catches for 94 yards and a touchdown. He scored another touchdown in the playoffs.
Buccaneers LB Deion Jones is on his third NFC South team since joining the Bucs late last season. Jones spent his first six seasons with the Atlanta Falcons before one season and Cleveland. He then joined the Panthers in 2023 and played one season for the team, starting three of his 13 appearances.
Tampa Bay guard Michael Jordan played two seasons for Carolina after being claimed off waivers from the Cincinnati Bengals on Sept. 1, 2021. Jordan made 28 appearances with 10 starts and was then waived in the final roster cuts in August of 2023.
Carolina Defensive Coordinator Ejiro Evero launched his NFL coaching career in 2007 when he joined Jon Gruden’s staff as a defensive quality control coach. He held that position for two seasons under Gruden and one more under Raheem Morris.
Similarly, Todd Wash, now the Panthers’ defensive line coach, got his first NFL coaching job in Tampa in the same year, and with the same title of defensive quality control coach. He was promoted in 2008 to defensive line coach and held that job for three seasons before moving on to the Seattle Seahawks.
Kevin Winston, who is currently the Panthers’ Vice President of Player Affairs, served as Tampa Bay’s director of player development on Tony Dungy’s staff from 1996-99.