The Houston Texans have a championship-level defense, and they’ll see if the offense can step up Sunday when they visit the AFC East champions New England Patriots in the NFL Divisional Round. The Patriots (15-3) showed last week that they have a pretty good defense of their own, holding the Los Angeles Chargers offense to a field goal in a 16-3 victory. The Texans (13-5) needed two defensive touchdowns in the fourth quarter to turn their Wild Card matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers into a 30-6 rout. Houston entered the NFL Playoffs on a nine-game winning streak, while New England won 13 of its final 14 in the regular season.

Offensively, the Patriots have been thriving behind MVP candidate Drake Maye. The second-year pro threw for more than 4,000 yards and had 31 touchdown passes as the Patriots were third in the NFL in scoring in the regular season at 28.8 points per game. The Texans scored 23.8, 18th in the league, as third-year quarterback C.J. Stroud struggled with inconsistency, a lack of weapons and a struggling offensive line. Stroud turned the ball over three times in the Wild Card victory and now faces a New England defense that sacked L.A. quarterback Justin Herbert six times and generated 30 pressures.         

The winner of Sunday’s game will face either the Buffalo Bills or Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game. For Sunday’s Texans vs. Patriots matchup, we’ve put together a same-game parlay, with odds courtesy of DraftKings and recommendations from the SportsLine Projection Model. For a full game forecast of Texans vs. Patriots and more NFL player prop recommendations, visit SportsLine.

Texans vs. Patriots same-game parlay picksTexans money lineDrake Maye Over 223.5 Passing YardsWoody Marks Under 57.5 Rushing Yards

Texans money line vs. Patriots

The SportsLine model gives this a ‘B’ grade, with the Texans winning in 45% of its simulations. The Houston defense ran roughshod over the Steelers last week, allowing 175 total yards, getting four sacks and beating up on quarterback Aaron Rodgers all night. The Texans also scored touchdowns on both of their takeaways. The offense had its problems, but Houston rushed for 164 yards and Stroud threw for 250. If they can avoid the turnovers, the Texans will be hard to beat.   

Drake Maye Over 223.5 Passing Yards

Sure, the Houston defense is scary good but the SportsLine props model has Maye demolishing this total, with his projection coming in just over 270. Maye has more than 230 passing yards in 14 of his 18 starts this season, including 268 last week. He was sacked five times by the Chargers, so he can stand up to pressure and has the ability to hit huge gains. The game will be in his hands and with an AFC Championship berth on the line, he will be determined to come through.  

Woody Marks Under 57.5 Rushing Yards

Marks rushed for 112 yards and a touchdown last week, but that was only his eighth time going over 60 yards. He is averaging 3.6 per carry, and the Patriots had the sixth-best rushing defense in the NFL during the regular season, allowing 101.7 yards per game. They gave up just 30 to L.A.’s running backs in the Wild Card round, with Herbert gaining 57 of the team’s 87 rushing yards. Marks will get his touches, but he might not get many yards Sunday. The SportsLine model projects him for 43.6 yards on the ground.