Updated Jan. 23, 2026, 12:00 p.m. MT

Two days before the AFC Championship game, the Denver Broncos are considered 4.5-point home underdogs against the New England Patriots, according to odds from BetMGM.

Earlier this week, Denver was listed as a 5.5-point underdog. Had that line held, it would have made the Broncos the biggest home underdog in a conference championship game since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger.

The current 4.5-point line would tie the record, which is currently held by the Atlanta Falcons, who lost to the San Francisco 49ers at home, 28-24, in the NFC’s 2012 conference title game. Denver’s considered a historic underdog after losing starting quarterback Bo Nix to a season-ending ankle injury, making Jarrett Stidham the team’s new QB1.

If the Broncos are going to upset the Patriots, the weather — and ball security — could play a role. The current 9News forecast is calling for 10-20 MPH winds with a wind chill of 0 degrees Fahrenheit and a 40% chance of snow flurries.

Those conditions could be notable for a Denver defense that forced five takeaways in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, including two forced fumbles from pass rusher Nik Bonitto. New England’s offensive line has allowed 58 sacks this season and the Broncos’ defense has totaled 71 sacks, marking the largest combined total (129) in an NFL playoff game, according to Doug Clawson of CBS Sports.

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Maye has been sacked 10 times and fumbled six times in the Patriots’ two playoff wins this season, and he struggled in sloppy conditions last week. The cold, snowy forecast could also impact Sunday’s game.

Broncos coach Sean Payton has emphasized forcing turnovers in the postseason, and his squad responded with five last week.

“To be plus four after the first week is a good thing,” Payton said. “I think, in all honesty, fortunately, we were. It was one of those games where that single-handedly was the difference.”

In two career starts with Denver, Stidham has taken seven sacks and fumbled once, so the ball security of both QBs will be key storylines in the AFC title game.

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