The Patriots’ fairytale season has not yet reached its conclusion.
Set to take on the Broncos, the Patriots are playing in their first AFC Championship Game in seven years.
They face a tough test against the AFC’s No. 1 seed in a setting that has been a house of horrors for the Patriots in the postseason.
The Patriots are 0-4 in the playoffs at Denver. This matchup did get easier last weekend, however, when Broncos starting quarterback Bo Nix broke his ankle. Now former Patriots fourth-round pick Jarrett Stidham will start in Nix’s place.
Here are 10 things we’re watching in Sunday’s matchup, which kicks off at 3 p.m. ET on CBS.
• Let’s start with Stidham. Broncos fans have rallied around their backup quarterback, with thousands of fans changing their social media avatars to a picture of Stidham’s face, photoshopped with sunglasses and headphones, imitating a LeBron James meme. Quite frankly, no one knows what the Broncos are getting in Stidham this weekend. He hasn’t thrown an NFL pass since 2023. Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels knows Stidham relatively well. He coached him from 2019-22, but even that was three years ago.
• Perhaps the No. 1 key for the Patriots is to continue to stuff the run. The Patriots’ defense wasn’t leaving the Chargers’ and Texans’ running games any room to breathe. They have to continue to stifle the Broncos’ rushing attack this week. Why? Because then it puts the onus on Stidham to carry the Broncos’ offense. Who knows? Maybe he can do it. But don’t expect the Broncos to enter Sunday’s contest with the game plan to throw the ball 40 times. The Patriots will need to force that by stuffing the run and making Sean Payton’s offense one dimensional.
• The Patriots catch a break with running back J.K. Dobbins (ankle) out Sunday. He averaged 5.0 yards per carry to rookie RJ Harvey’s 3.7 yards per attempt. The Broncos’ O-line could still create room to run, but Harvey hasn’t been consistently effective this season.
• The Patriots ideally will want to pressure Stidham to force turnovers, but the Broncos’ offensive line is among the best they’ll face this season. Interim defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr has shown a willingness to blitz to increase pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Don’t be surprised if that continues this week against the Broncos, since the Patriots really don’t know how Stidham will handle blitzes. And, quite frankly, the Patriots do need to blitz to bring pressure, despite having some formidable pass rushers on their defensive line. They’ll be without Harold Landry on the edge, forcing them to count more heavily on Anfernee Jennings and rookie Bradyn Swinson.
New England Patriots offensive tackle Morgan Moses (76) dances during practice at Gillette Stadium on Friday. The Patriots will play at Denver on Sunday in the AFC Championship Game. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald)
• Rookie left tackle Will Campbell faces another giant test this week against Broncos two-time Pro Bowl pass rusher Nik Bonitto. Bonitto does most of his work on the defensive right, which means he’ll be going against Campbell, who struggled in consecutive weeks against Chargers and Texans pass rushers, for most of the game. The Broncos also have defensive tackle Zach Allen, who’s one of the league’s premier interior pass rushers. So, rookie left guard Jared Wilson also needs to be on his toes this week to protect quarterback Drake Maye.
• Maye has, somewhat surprisingly, had a pretty major fumbling issue over the last two weeks. Most of them have come under pressure while throwing, which means that Maye, his offensive line and McDaniels probably need to time his drops better. Maye has struggled in the first half of his first two playoff games, but he’s played much better in the second half when the games have mattered most. A full 60-minute effort from Maye should ensure a victory.
• If there’s a weakness for the Patriots’ offense to exploit, it’s the Broncos’ run defense, which allowed 183 yards in their divisional-round win over the Bills. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson is playing the best football of his career, while rookie TreVeyon Henderson has struggled to generate big plays. Expect a heavy helping of Stevenson, as long as he stays healthy.
• Wide receiver Kayshon Boutte wasn’t intimidated by last week’s matchup with Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. If Broncos All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II is in coverage on Boutte this week, would Maye be hesitant to target him? Not if he can stack Surtain in his route and beat him over the top like he did against Stingley.
• Broncos cornerback Riley Moss has been a much easier matchup this season. He’s allowed 834 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in 19 games. The Patriots spread the ball around anyway, so they can play keep away from Surtain, if needed.
• Prediction? Patriots win 24-17. Expect a close game throughout, with the Patriots pulling away late. Both defenses are stout. Maye should have more success than Stidham.