Rams vs. Seahawks odds, picks, predictions: Best bets for NFC championship game

We’ve seen this movie before.

The Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams will meet for a third time this season in the NFC championship game, this time in Seattle. The prize for the winner? A trip to Super Bowl 60.

The No. 1 seed Seahawks enjoyed their bye week and then crushed the 49ers 41-6 in the divisional round. The No. 5 seed Rams haven’t played their best football in the postseason, but got by the Panthers 34-31 in Carolina as 10-point road favorites in the wild-card round and then went on the road again to defeat the Chicago Bears 20-17 in overtime as 4.5-point road favorites. Los Angeles didn’t cover the spread in either game.

Will Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford return to a second Super Bowl as head coach and QB? How will Sam Darnold (and his oblique) show up when the lights are brightest?

Ben Fawkes gathers insight from oddsmakers for the game, and our team of NFL handicappers provides its favorite wagers on Sunday’s matchup.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

What oddsmakers are saying

“A little bit more money on Seattle, number hasn’t moved from Seahawks -2.5. We have moved the Seahawks money line from -150 to -155. Total we opened 47.5, it went up to 48 briefly, then back to 47.5. I think it’ll stay in that range. The only weather issue that might come is rain there.” — Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata

“This is the game we were all looking forward to seeing because these games have been electric. Ton of action coming in. Opened Seattle -2.5, 47.5, and the total is down a half point to 47. Respect for Seattle defensive front and how well they’re playing. We’re seeing Seattle action come in. I think the Rams all year long were considered the best team stats-wise and with this prolific offense. Defense has taken a step back the past few weeks. Right now, bettors are convinced that Seattle is going to win this game no problem.” — Joey Feazel, head of NFL trading at Caesars Sportsbook

Best bets

Matt Jacob: Here’s one reason to take the points with the Rams in Sunday’s NFC championship game: Since the 2018 season, Los Angeles is 11-6 against the Seahawks (including a playoff victory). And five of those losses were by a total of 14 points (including two in overtime).

Other reasons to take the points: The Rams are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 head-to-head battles (6-1 ATS in Seattle); the underdog has covered the point spread in seven of the past eight clashes; and seven of those eight contests were decided by a touchdown or fewer.

That includes two matchups this year decided by a total of three points.

So of course I’m rolling with … the Seahawks. Specifically, I’m rolling with a Seahawks defense that has allowed 19 points (and one touchdown) over the past three games.

The naysayer would point out that immediately prior to this recent stretch, Seattle gave up 37 points. To the Rams. At home. That’s fair enough. But the defense stiffened down the stretch of that game, allowing the offense and special teams to steal a 38-37 victory in overtime.

Also, prior to that Week 16 Thursday Night Football thriller, the Seahawks shut down the Colts (16 points), Falcons (nine) and Vikings (zero). Yep, Seattle has held six of its past seven opponents to 44 total points.

There’s this, too: In the first meeting in Los Angeles, the Rams scored touchdowns on their first two offensive possessions. From there, L.A. found the end zone just once in the final three quarters, barely holding on for a 21-19 win.

The bottom line is that the Seahawks have been consistent all season and are playing their best football right now (as evidenced by their ongoing eight-game winning streak).

On the other hand, the Rams have been teetering for weeks. Not only are they just 5-3 in their last eight contests, but they barely survived two playoff games at Carolina (34-31) and Chicago (20-17 in overtime).

No offense to the Panthers and Bears, but they’re not in Seattle’s league.

Bet: Seahawks -2.5 (-120)

Jacob: A quick review of the Seahawks’ backup running back situation: fourth-stringer Kenny McIntosh (injured reserve); third-stringer George Holani (injured reserve); second-stringer and second-leading rusher Zach Charbonet (torn ACL).

There’s a chance that Holani (hamstring) could be activated ahead of Sunday’s NFC championship game. But the second-year pro has all of 25 carries in 16 games.

Before last week’s playoff rout of the 49ers, Seattle moved running back Velus Jones Jr. from the practice squad to the active roster. Jones wound up with six carries — two more than he had in three regular-season games — but gained only 10 yards.

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Long story short, the Seahawks have depth problems in the backfield. So like it or not, No. 1 running back Kenneth Walker III is going to have to shoulder the load against the Rams. That certainly wasn’t a problem last week, when Walker torched San Francisco for 119 yards (and three touchdowns) on 19 carries.

The 19 carries matched Walker’s regular-season high against Arizona way back in Week 4.

Now in his fourth season, the former Michigan State standout has exceeded 20 rushing attempts just eight times in 56 starts. If the Seahawks had their druthers, they wouldn’t need Walker to top that number for a ninth time Sunday night. Unfortunately, given the state of their running back room, they won’t have that luxury.

Bet: Kenneth Walker III over 20.5 rushing attempts (-105)

Jacob: Despite playing in frigid Chicago last week, McVay called 42 pass plays versus 31 rushing plays. That decision nearly cost McVay and his team — and he knows it.

In fact, after escaping with a 20-17 overtime win, McVay admitted his offensive game plan needs to be more balanced. I just don’t believe for a hot second that he’ll change his ways.

For starters, committing to the running game is not in McVay’s football DNA. More importantly, he views Stafford as his ticket back to a third Super Bowl, so he’s going to ride the 37-year-old’s right arm until it falls off.

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How else do you explain these numbers: 38, 49, 38, 40, 42 and 42.

Those are Stafford’s pass attempts in his past six games. The highwater mark of 49? It happened in Week 16 in Seattle. And the 42 attempts in each of the past two games were in rainy Carolina and ice-cold Chicago.

Do you really believe McVay is going to let off the throttle this week? When the weather is projected to be dry and mild? In a game where his team quite possibly will be trailing for a good portion of the day? With a trip to Super Bowl 60 on the line?

No chance.

Bet: Matthew Stafford over 35.5 pass attempts (-125)

Matt Russell: Jacob and I are swimming up the same stream with Stafford, as we might be in for a repeat of Week 16’s tilt. Everybody knows that Davante Adams missed that game, but there was another one of Stafford’s weapons that wasn’t in the mix that night: Tyler Higbee was still on the injured list.

Both before and after the time he missed due to injury, Higbee is usually good for one big play in the passing game, and that was again the case last week in Chicago. One catch for 27 yards was enough to make it five games in a row with a long reception of more than 10.5 yards. Only three teams allowed more yards per reception to tight ends this season, so we’ll bet on another singular explosive connection between the long-time teammates.

Bet: Tyler Higbee longest reception over 10.5 yards (-110)

Michael Fiddle: Late in the NFL season, the Rams were splitting backfield touches or even leaning on backup RB Blake Corum to be a lead ball carrier. Just last season, with the Kyren Williams and Blake Corum tandem in place, Williams played 81% of the snaps — that dipped to 69% this season. The reason became clear during the last two playoff games: The Rams were saving Williams’ legs a bit.

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In fact, Williams’ explosive playmaking rate increased with fewer touches. He had his longest run of the season (34 yards) coincidentally against this Seattle defense in their Nov. matchup. Williams had 21 carries last week against the Bears compared to Corum’s six, while also seeing that explosiveness remain.

My favorite prop in this game is banking on Williams to have a carry of at least 12 yards.

Bet: Kyren Williams longest rush over 11.5 yards (+105 BetMGM)

Ed Feng: Seattle came into the season with low expectations, as the Seahawks ranked 19th in my preseason rankings and 1.2 points worse than league average. The wisdom of crowds was not high on Sam Darnold after he flunked his last two games of an otherwise great season with Minnesota. Losing DK Metcalf probably didn’t help preseason expectations.

As powerful a predictor as the wisdom of crowds can be (remember this when you fill out your March Madness bracket), it was wrong on Seattle, as Darnold (with the help of WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba) has been fantastic. With the failure of the Rams to perform against a bad Chicago defense, Seattle moved into first in my numbers based on data from the current season. This model predicts Seattle by 3, so I’m not seeing any value in the spread.

My passing yards model is based on adjusted yards per pass attempt. As strong as Stafford and the Rams offense has been, the Seattle defense ranks third in the NFL by my numbers. Yes, Stafford blew up for 457 passing yards in his last game against Seattle, but let’s recognize this as an outlier (130 yards in their first meeting this season). The model predicts 237 passing yards for Stafford.

Bet: Matthew Stafford under 256.5 passing yards

Rams vs. Seahawks odds, picks, predictions: Best bets for NFC championship game

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