In the words of Kenny Rogers, no one knows how to fold ‘em any more. The NFL is a go-go-go world, and despite the fact that most field goal kickers are money from inside of 50 yards, going for it on fourth-and-one or fourth-and-three or fourth-and-five is all the rage. It probably cost Denver’s Sean Payton a trip to the Super Bowl on Sunday. It may have cost the Rams’ Sean McVay a trip to the Super Bowl on Sunday.
If the NFL’s great offensive gurus named Sean can blow it, is anyone safe out there? Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer mostly got solid reviews for his fourth-down decisions this season, although he, too, got carried away in pursuit of touchdowns. At least he had a reason.
If you go back to the Monday night game against Arizona in early November (and who doesn’t want to do that?), the Cowboys took the opening kickoff and drove smartly toward the Cards’ goal line. But they bogged down and had a fourth-and-goal at the four. Brandon Aubrey was better than a 99 percent hope of getting you three points. Schottenheimer went the other way, and this is despite the evidence that the team was not a great red zone offense and had just turned first-and-goal at the seven to fourth-and-goal at the four. A Javonte Williams run, a complete pass to Jake Ferguson and an incomplete pass thrown at the tight end had netted three yards. What were the odds Dallas would get four?
The Cowboys went for it. Dak got sacked and lost seven yards. A bad Cardinals team was gifted with early momentum. Arizona would win the game by 10 points. It would be Arizona’s last win before nine straight losses, six of them by 17 points or more.
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But Schottenheimer’s reason for frequently passing up field goals for touchdowns had some logic behind it. He had come to grips with the fact his team needed 30 points because the defense was terrible. That’s going to impact decision-making beyond anything written in the analytics handbook.
Back to Sunday. The Broncos have a fourth-and-one at the New England 14, leading 7-0 in the second quarter. It’s already obvious both inexperienced quarterbacks are going to struggle to move the football. It is especially true for Denver playing with backup Jarrett Stidham. People know that snow is coming around halftime that will render first downs even more of a challenge. A field goal and a 10-0 lead could be about all the Broncos’ defense needs.
Payton goes for it. Stidham’s pass for R.J. Harvey falls incomplete. The Patriots win the game 10-7. Payton says afterward that the argument for kicking a field goal is a sound one. But his reputation as a gambler (the man won a Super Bowl using an onside kick to open the second half) got the best of him. Same way it got the best of Dan Campbell, the ultimate fourth-down gambler, in the NFC Championship Game two years ago. He passed up a shot to lead the 49ers by 17 points in order to try to make it a 21-point margin.
Didn’t work out. The Lions have still never been to a Super Bowl.
Later on Sunday afternoon, in what felt like the A game to Denver-New England’s B game, possibly because of better weather conditions but mostly because the two offenses are so superior, the Rams and Seahawks went back and forth. Seattle is leading 31-27 with five minutes left. The Rams have a fourth-and-four at the Seahawks‘ six. A field goal makes it a one-point game, which is admittedly not ideal but it puts the pressure back on Seattle’s offense.
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LA had just run for no yards on second-and-four and thrown incomplete on third-and-four. The odds are not great for a conversion. McVay passes up the field goal and Stanford throws incomplete again. The Rams’ defense does a poor job getting Seattle off the field, allowing an 11-play drive before getting the ball back with 25 seconds to go deep in its own end.
Needing a touchdown, they had no chance. But needing a field goal? And doing only a slightly better job on defense to get the ball with maybe a minute back? That was the better option. It wasn’t an outrageously bad decision for McVay to go for the TD with five minutes to go. But it was the wrong one.
It‘s a reminder that even great coaches are not immune to bad decisions in the biggest moments. What would have happened if Miami had gone on and finished that last-minute drive and upset Indiana in the CFP national championship? Curt Cignetti, currently sitting atop Mt. Olympus on the coaching scale, completely botched the end of the first half when he failed to call a timeout before Miami’s late field goal try. The Hoosiers should have gotten the ball back with more than a minute to play, leading either 10-0 or 10-3 (Miami missed the field goal). Instead, they got it with 33 seconds left, ran the ball on first down and did not stop the clock (they had two timeouts) until after a Fernando Mendoza pass got the ball to the 50 with three seconds left.
In the end, they were dumping Gatorade on Cignetti and Indiana’s undefeated season is truly one for the record books. His mistake, a potentially serious one, gets waved off. Not the same for Payton and McVay who have all offseason to figure out if they let a potential second Super Bowl victory slide away by not kicking field goals.
On Twitter/X: @TimCowlishaw
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