A lot of people — from a national perspective, at least — have not been paying attention to the Super Bound LX-bound Patriots all season, and it shows.
From questions about the Patriots’ coaching staff, the quality of the defense, and correcting some Drake Maye slander, we’re here to fix some misconceptions about the Super Bowl LX squad.
NFL fans outside of New England are apoplectic at how quickly it took the Patriots to rebuild and reshape their team in a post-Tom Brady and Bill Belichick era.
For Patriots fans, the seven-year span between Super Bowl appearances likely felt much, much longer.
It’s important for national and casual observers to understand this is a completely different team than the 2018 Patriots that beat the Rams in Super Bowl LIII. Zero players remain from that roster. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and strength and conditioning coach Deron Mayo are the only holdover coaches from that staff (and McDaniels returned after a three-year absence in which time he served as Raiders head coach).
Only a handful of members of the Patriots’ front office are remnants of the dynasty era, including director of scouting administration Nancy Meier, director of research Richard Miller and personnel coordinator Brian Smith, all of whom have been with the team for every Super Bowl win.
Ownership remains, but nearly everything else has changed, especially at the top. Head coach Mike Vrabel was only hired one year ago and brought vice president of player personnel Ryan Cowden and vice president of football operations and strategy John Streicher with him, and executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf was promoted to his current position in 2024.
The Patriots are back, but they’re not the same.
So much has changed even from last season, when the Patriots finished 4-13 for a second consecutive year and fired one-and-done head coach Jerod Mayo. Just seven coaches remain on staff from last year, and that includes two special teams coaches and two strength and conditioning coaches.
ROSTER CHANGES
The Patriots essentially have a 55-man roster right now. They have their regular 53-man roster, and an 18-man practice squad (factoring in injured players) that includes two players who have been regulars on the Patriots’ game-day active roster.
Among those 55 players, 32 are new this season.
The Patriots signed QB Joshua Dobbs, wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins, offensive linemen Garrett Bradbury and Morgan Moses, defensive tackles Khyiris Tonga and Milton Williams, outside linebackers K’Lavon Chaisson and Harold Landry, linebackers Jack Gibbens and Robert Spillane and cornerback Carlton Davis III in free agency this offseason. They selected offensive linemen Will Campbell, Jared Wilson and Marcus Bryant, running back TreVeyon Henderson, wide receiver Kyle Williams, outside linebacker Bradyn Swinson, cornerback Kobee Minor, safety Craig Woodson, long snapper Julian Ashby and kicker Andy Borregales in the 2025 NFL Draft then signed wide receiver Efton Chism, tight end CJ Dippre and outside linebacker Elijah Ponder as undrafted free agents. They claimed quarterback Tommy DeVito and cornerback Charles Woods and signed defensive tackle Cory Durden before the season began. And then in-season, they added offensive tackle Thayer Munford and linebacker Chad Muma to the 53-man roster and signed defensive tackle Leonard Taylor III and running back D’Ernest Johnson — both of whom are regular gameday roster members — to the practice squad.
That roster upheaval is one of the biggest reasons why the Patriots are playing in the Super Bowl. Just 10 of 22 starters from the Patriots’ AFC Championship Game remain from last season. That does include some of the Patriots’ best players, however, like quarterback Drake Maye, cornerback Christian Gonzalez and defensive tackle Christian Barmore.
COACHING STRUCTURE
There has been some confusion among the national media recently about the Patriots’ defensive coordinator situation.
The Patriots’ DC, Terrell Williams, was diagnosed with prostate cancer and hasn’t been serving his regular duties since Week 2.
The Patriots’ interim defensive coordinator is inside linebackers coach Zak Kuhr, though the team stressed that they took a collaborative approach on defense, even when Williams was in charge. Kuhr calls defensive plays from the Patriots’ sideline and has been doing so since Week 2. He’s improving in his role by the week.
Williams has still been around the team while undergoing cancer treatments, but he has not been present during games.
Vrabel is more of a CEO-type head coach, despite his defensive background.
McDaniels calls plays on offense. None of his offensive assistants previously worked under him. The group includes long-time veteran assistants like wide receivers coach Todd Downing, tight ends coach Thomas Brown and offensive line coach Doug Marrone. The defensive staff is less experienced.
THE QUARTERBACK
There are probably some NFL fans who have only watched Maye during his three postseason appearances. Based on his performance in those games, they might be slightly confused about why Maye was considered an MVP candidate this season.
It’s because he was really good. Maye led the NFL this season in several traditional (completion percentage, passer rating, yards, yards per attempt) and advanced metrics (QBR, expected points added (EPA), completion percentage over expected).
This postseason, Maye, a 2024 first-round pick, has completed just 55.8% of his passes for 533 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions. He’s also rushed 24 times for 141 yards with a touchdown and six fumbles while taking 15 sacks.
He’s also faced three top-five defenses in the Chargers, Texans and Broncos, so the competition has been fierce. The Seahawks are also a top-five defense, so things aren’t getting any easier in the Super Bowl, but the playing conditions should be better.
“I think that that’s all a combination,” Vrabel said Tuesday when asked if Maye’s struggles are related to the defenses and pass rushes the Patriots have faced this postseason. “I think it all goes into it. Just the defenses in general, not just the pass rush. And, again, a lot of that stuff is, we’ll have to be better. We’ll have to be better. We’ll have to play one of our best games, if not our best game, against Seattle to stay balanced, to run the football, to use all our complementary passing game and not just turn it into a drop-back passing game. That’s a tough way to live in this league.”
The weather was antithetical to offensive football in the divisional round and AFC Championship Game.
The level of competition and elements don’t completely excuse Maye’s performance in the playoffs, but it adds some valuable context.
A DEFENSIVE SHIFT
If you simply look at the Patriots’ regular-season defensive metrics, you’d be slightly underwhelmed. The Patriots ranked eighth in yards allowed per game, ninth in EPA per play, ninth in EPA per pass and 11th in EPA per rush. Solid, sure, but maybe not Super Bowl worthy.
Toss in the postseason now, and the Patriots rank second in yards allowed per game, third in EPA per play, second in EPA per pass and eighth in EPA per rush.
Purely in the postseason alone, the Patriots outrank the Seahawks in yards allowed per game, points allowed per game, EPA per play, EPA per pass and EPA per rush.
What’s the difference? The Patriots have received a major lift from getting Williams, Tonga and Spillane back from injury.
They’ve also massively increased their blitz rate. The Patriots blitzed on 28% of dropbacks during the regular season and over 42% in the postseason.
And their pressure rate on blitzes hasn’t changed. They had a 44.6% pressure rate on blitzes in the regular season and a 48.2% pressure rate on blitzes in the postseason.
This isn’t a Super Bowl preview, but Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold ranked 23rd out of 59 QBs in EPA per play when blitzed during the regular season. He’s been phenomenal when facing blitzes this postseason, ranking first.
The Patriots’ defense has also been incredibly stout at stopping opposing running backs. They’ve allowed just 113 rushing yards on 48 attempts through three games.
Patriots defenders said after Sunday’s win over the Broncos that they consider themselves one of the best units in the league. The stats bear that out, and they should be regarded as such.
THE RUN GAME
The stats didn’t bear it out in the Patriots’ AFC Championship Game win Sunday, but running back Rhamondre Stevenson is playing the best football of his NFL career over the last seven weeks.
In that span, Stevenson has rushed 80 times for 473 yards with four touchdowns and caught 19 passes on 23 targets for 217 yards and two touchdowns. He’s averaging 98.6 yards from scrimmage per game.
Rookie TreVeyon Henderson, whose skillset is more boom or bust, has not been as effective, and he’s seen his snaps dwindle in recent games. He played just four total offensive snaps in Sunday’s win over the Broncos to Stevenson’s 60 snaps.
Stevenson has also been one of the best running backs in blitz pickup this season, while Henderson has struggled to adapt to the NFL level in that aspect of his game.
THE SCHEDULE
The Patriots have been criticized for having an easy path to the Super Bowl. They had the league’s easiest strength of schedule this season before taking on the Chargers, Texans and Broncos in the playoffs.
Critics will point out that the Patriots played the Chargers without their starting offensive tackles, the Texans without top wide receiver Nico Collins and the Broncos without starting quarterback Jarrett Stidham. And that’s true.
But the 11-6 Chargers also played most of their season without their starting tackles, and the Patriots have limited opponents to an incredible 209.7 yards per game and 8.7 points per game this postseason.
The Patriots have also adopted a “Road Warriors” moniker this season for being the first team in NFL history to go 9-0 in away games. Another popular catchphrase this season is, “We all we got. We all we need.” A third? “Don’t change the mac and cheese,” meaning don’t change the approach in critical moments.
So, there’s some truth to the schedule and path talk, but the Patriots outlasted the rest of their AFC foes and will be playing in the Super Bowl.