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The Chargers clinched the No. 7 seed in the AFC. Here is our forecast of their chances in each round of the playoffs:

MAKE
PLAY-OFFSMAKE
PLAYOFFSMAKE
DIV.
ROUNDMAKE
CONF.
CHAMP.MAKE
SUPER
BOWLWIN
SUPER
BOWL

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Below are our estimates for the Chargers’ chances at all playoff outcomes since the beginning of the season. These figures are updated after every NFL game and occasionally when there is a player injury or other roster news.

How the Chargers’ chances have changed

Here you’ll find our estimates for all remaining combinations of records the Chargers may end the season with.

Chargers’ likeliest end-of-season records

About the simulator: We estimate odds by randomly simulating the remainder of the season thousands of times and counting how often each team makes the playoffs, gets the No. 1 seed, the No. 1 draft pick and so on. We estimate each team’s probability of winning each remaining game using a statistical forecast that incorporates a host of data, including team records, roster changes, weather, game location and more advanced measures like expected points added and success rate.

By Ryan Best, David Haye, Elliot Jordan, Junghye Kim, Austin Mock, Matt Myers, Thomas Oide, Laura Pelton, Yuriko Schumacher and Oliver Viehweger

Adapted from The New York Times’s NFL Playoff Simulator.

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