Last season was disappointing for the Texas Longhorns and quarterback Arch Manning. The Longhorns entered the year ranked No. 1 in the AP poll for the first time in program history.
Despite finishing the season with a 10-3 record, they did not qualify for the College Football Playoff. Manning faced challenges early in the year but improved as the season progressed. Now, the question is whether Texas can get back on track and make a return in 2026.
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ESPN’s analytical expert, Bill Connelly, has compiled a list of the 12 teams he believes will compete in next season’s tournament. Connelly used specific criteria to create these rankings. Rather than simply asking, “Which teams are the best on paper?” he aims to establish guidelines that will help predict how the College Football Playoff race will unfold.
He enjoyed this exercise last year. While it correctly predicted only four of the 12 playoff teams, the way-too-early predictions accurately forecasted only three. Additionally, last year’s rules do not require many changes. Those rules are:
The SEC has to be won by either Kirby Smart (2017, 2022, 2024, 2025) or a coach who has proved he can beat Kirby Smart (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023).
The Big 12: Either flip the close games around … or go with the money.
The ACC has to be won by either Clemson (2011, 2015-20, 2022, 2024) or a team that beat Clemson in the regular season (2012-14, 2021, 2023, 2025).
Best Group of Six champ: The best team to schedule multiple power-conference opponents wins.
At-Large Bids: Six teams from the Way-Too-Early Top 25 and a team that had a losing record last season.
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) looks to make a pass.© Brett Davis-Imagn Images
(© Brett Davis-Imagn Images)
With those rules in place, Connelly said that he thinks Texas will get in, ranking the Longhorns as the No. 10 seed. On3 broke down the prediction.
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“Arch Manning is returning for another go-round,” Steve Samra wrote. “Texas won’t let it be for naught, as it is surrounding him with stars all over the offensive side of the football. Will it be enough? Time will tell, but after missing the College Football Playoff in 2025, the Longhorns will be more motivated than ever to get back to the 12-team dance. ESPN believes they will.”
After entering the 2025 season with historic expectations, Texas fell short of its ultimate goal. But the foundation for a rebound remains firmly in place as Manning prepares for another season under center.
According to Connelly’s framework, Texas fits the profile of a motivated at-large contender, especially with Manning’s development and a roster loaded with offensive weapons. The Longhorns’ ability to navigate the SEC gauntlet will ultimately determine whether this projection becomes reality.
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While nothing is guaranteed in an expanded playoff field, ESPN’s belief that Texas will return in 2026 underscores the program’s ceiling. With expectations reset and urgency at an all-time high, the Longhorns appear positioned for another push toward the College Football Playoff.
Related: Arch Manning Comments on Former Texas DB’s Career Decision
This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Jan 31, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.