ESPN’s Mel Kiper and NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah are two of the biggest names in the mock draft business and have been for years. So today we ask ourselves what would have happened if the Cowboys had followed the pair’s mock draft suggestions in the first round of the last six drafts, and how that compares to what the Cowboys actually did – something we’ve done intermittently here on Blogging The Boys over the last decade or so.

In the mock draft world, there’s only one mock that ultimately counts: the final mock draft published before the actual draft. That doesn’t stop mock drafters from creating countless mocks before that final one, but most of those are entertainment for a long offseason. Which is why today we’ll only look at Kiper’s and Jeremiah’s final mock drafts from 2020 through 2025.

Why the cutoff at six years? Mainly because that marks the transition from the Garrett years (2010-2019) to the McCarthy/Shottenheimer years (2020-2025).

So before we compare the Cowboys with Kiper and Jeremiah, we’ll first look at the Garrett years to establish a sort of baseline of how we’ll approach the comparisons. In the table below you’ll find an overview of all 32 teams and their first-round picks from 2010-2019 and the Weighted Approximate Value (wAV) for the players they drafted. wAV comes courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and is their attempt to put a single number on the seasonal value of a player at any position from any year.

First-round AV points by team, 2010-2019

Rank
Team
Picks
wAV
   
Rank
Team
Picks
wAV
    
Rank
Team
Picks
wAV

1
LAR
9
556
 
12
SFO
13
457
 
23
ARI
10
380

2
NOR
11
540
 
13
WAS
9
441
 
T24
NWE
9
378

3
CAR
9
532
 
14
ATL
10
437
 
T24
DEN
10
378

4
PIT
10
528
 
15
BAL
9
433
 
26
LVR
10
373

5
BUF
10
511
 
16
LAC
10
426
 
27
KAN
7
372

6
CLE
15
502
 
17
TEN
11
424
 
28
JAX
10
356

7
NYG
12
498
 
18
NYJ
11
421
 
29
CIN
11
332

8
DAL
9
490
 
19
MIN
12
420
 
30
CHI
8
307

9
HOU
9
487
 
20
MIA
10
416
 
31
GNB
10
303

10
DET
11
484
 
21
PHI
9
394
 
32
SEA
7
296

11
TAM
10
468
 
22
IND
8
385
 
 
 
 
 

Overall, the table shows that the Cowboys have drafted well during the Garrett era, ranking eighth overall in wAV. Of course, the numbers would be better without Taco Charlton and Morris Claiborne, but every team whiffs on a first-rounder at some point. And yes, had they not traded away their 2019 first-rounder, they’d probably also look better. In fact, if you were to calculate the wAV per draft pick, the Cowboys would average 54.4 points per pick and rank third in the NFL behind only the Rams (61.8) and Panthers (59.1).

With that, let’s turn to Kiper and Jeremiah to see how their picks for the Cowboys hold up in this comparison.

But before we do that, we have to recognize that this is not of course an apples-to-apples comparison. Kiper and Jeremiah have to make assumptions about all the picks ahead of the Cowboys in their mock drafts, and then have to assign one of the remaining players to the Cowboys based on a first-round mock that is bound to be imperfect. We do not know which player each draftnik would have picked if he had been in charge of the Cowboys draft on draft night, and going back and following their draft-night commentary to figure out who they suggested when the Cowboys were on the clock is just not feasible.

However, in some drafts, one or both draftniks have offered picks for the Cowboys where the players or positions selected were in the pre-draft favorites pool, so they at least partly reflect popular sentiment at the time.

Before we check out the two draft experts, here is a summary of the Cowboys’ first-round picks in the last six drafts, along with some metrics we’ll use to evaluate the picks.

Year
Player
POS
All Pro
Pro Bowls
Starter Seasons
Games
wAV

2020
CeeDee Lamb
WR
1
5
6
95
65

2021
Micah Parsons
DE
3
5
5
77
68

2022
Tyler Smith
G
—
3
4
63
34

2023
Mazi Smith
DT
—
—
1
42
9

2024
Tyler Guyton
T
—
—
2
25
10

2025
Tyler Booker
G
—
—
1
14
7

Total
 
 
4
13
19
316
193

The Cowboys have an obvious bust in Mazi Smith, but balance that with two, maybe three, home runs in Ceedee Lamb, Micah Parsons, and Tyler Smith.

Here are the players Mel Kiper had the Cowboys picking in his final mock drafts of each of the last six years:

Year
Player
POS
All Pro
Pro Bowls
Starter Seasons
Games
wAV

2020
Xavier McKinney
S
1
1
5
82
39

2021
Patrick Surtain
CB
3
4
4
80
51

2022
Tyler Smith
OT
—
3
4
63
34

2023
Dalton Kincaid
TE
—
—
2
41
17

2024
Tyler Guyton
T
—
—
2
25
10

2025
Omarion Hampton
RB
—
—
—
9
5

Total
 
 
4
8
17
300
156

For the most part, Kiper would have had the Cowboys drafting solid starters, avoided the Mazi Smith pick, and even got the Tyler Smith and Tyler Guyton picks right. However, he can’t match the Lamb/Parsons picks in 20/21. In any case, Kiper’s 156 total wAV points would rank this collection of picks eighth overall in the league, so that’s a good showing for the oft-maligned Kiper.

On to Jeremiah’s final mock picks for the Cowboys.

Year
Player
POS
All Pro
Pro Bowls
Starter Seasons
Games
wAV

2020
CJ Henderson
CB
—
—
2
53
13

2021
Jaycee Horn
CB
—
2
3
53
22

2022
Jahan Dotson
WR
—
—
3
63
12

2023
Luke Musgrave
TE
—
—
2
35
6

2024
Graham Barton
OC
—
—
2
33
15

2025
Tetaiora McMillan
WR
—
—
—
17
9

Total
 
 
—
2
12
254
77

Jeremiah’s collection of picks for the Cowboys over the last six years falls far short of both the Cowboys’ actual haul and Kiper’s mock projection. The picks above would have ranked just 26th overall in terms of wAV points. In Jeremiah’s defense, his last last three picks have a combined wAV of 30, just two short of Kiper and four more than the Cowboys.

That’s not necessarily and indictment of Jeremiah’s mock drafting skills, perhaps he was focusing more on needs than the Cowboys and Kiper did. And keep in mind that in many ways, the Cowboys lucked into both Lamb and Parsons.

We’ll add an extra look here as another point of reference.

For each Cowboys first-round pick, we’ll look at the top player still available at the time the Cowboys were on the clock that would have been the best player available (BPA) according to the consensus big board from NFLMockdraftdatabase.com, who curate their consensus big board by compiling hundreds of big boards, first-round mocks, and team-based mocks into one giant big board.

Year
Player
POS
All Pro
Pro Bowls
Starter Seasons
Games
wAV

2020
CeeDee Lamb
WR
1
5
6
95
65

2021
Rashawn Slater
OL
—
2
3
51
32

2022
Jermayne Johnson
LB
—
1
2
47
19

2023
Nolan Smith
OLB
—
—
2
45
13

2024
Cooper DeJean
CB
1
1
2
32
16

2025
Tyler Warren
TE
—
—
1
17
9

Total
 
 
2
9
16
287
154

The consensus board comes in just two points below Kiper, and would also be good for eighth overall in the league. The big difference to the Cowboys haul is that the consensus board had Rashawn Slater ranked above Micah Parsons.

What all the numbers above show is that the draft can be a precarious proposition, even in the first round where the best available talent is supposed to be found. Over the last six years, the Cowboys have been pretty good at mining this resource. And yes, this is about the first round only. Kiper and Jeremiah do not include the other rounds in their final mock, so this is what we are comparing against.

Here’s how the Cowboys’ draft record over the last six years compares to the rest of the league in terms of wAV.

First-round AV points by team, 2020-2025

Rank
Team
Picks
wAV
   
Rank
Team
Picks
wAV
    
Rank
Team
Picks
wAV

1
JAX
9
222
 
12
MIN
8
133
 
23
KAN
6
99

2
DET
8
211
 
13
TAM
5
124
 
24
SFO
5
84

3
BAL
8
200
 
14
CAR
6
122
 
25
ARI
6
81

4
LAC
7
196
 
15
HOU
4
115
 
26
PIT
5
75

5
DAL
6
193
 
16
NYG
8
114
 
27
BUF
4
66

6
CIN
6
160
 
17
CHI
5
113
 
28
IND
4
60

7
NYJ
9
159
 
18
DEN
4
110
 
29
CLE
3
51

8
MIA
7
154
 
19
NOR
7
108
 
30
LVR
6
47

9
SEA
6
148
 
20
GNB
7
105
 
31
TEN
6
42

T10
PHI
7
143
 
21
NWE
5
102
 
32
LAR
1
22

T10
ATL
7
143
 
22
WAS
6
100
 
 
 
 
 

This table, to my surprise, shows that the Cowboys have drafted quite well during the McCarthy/Schottenheimer era, ranking fifth overall in wAV, ahead of where they ranked in the Garrett era. And if we again calculate the wAV per draft pick, the Cowboys would average 32.2 points points per pick and rank first in the NFL ahead of the Texans (28.8), Chargers (28.0), and Broncos (27.5).

The Cowboys have two first-round picks in this year’s draft. If they stay true to their board and avoid chasing needs, they may well get some generational talent again. But the last time the Cowboys had two firsts, they drafted Felix Jones and Mike Jenkins in 2008, so that should also give Cowboys fans pause. Yes, that was a long time ago, but Jones and Jenkins combined for a miserly 54 wAV over their career. That’s less than Dez Bryant (61), Tyron Smith (91), Travis Frederick (60), Zack Martin (103), Zeke Elliott (68), and even Lamb (65) and Parsons (68), who are still in the middle of their NFL careers.

But three years before that the Cowboys also had two firsts in the 2005 NFL draft and landed DeMarcus Ware (100) and Marcus Spears (36). Such are the vagaries of the NFL draft. Let’s hope for more of 2005 and less of 2008.