There is always a disparity between fans and oddsmakers when it comes to the Cowboys this time of year. It’s become a recurring gag for fans to say “this is our year!” when it, in fact, is not. Oddsmakers, as well as the national media, generally know this too.
Still, this year feels different.
As of right now, the Cowboys have +190 odds to make the playoffs and +600 to win the NFC East according to DraftKings sportsbook. Only three other teams in the NFC – the Panthers, Saints, and Giants – have worse odds of making the postseason; unsurprisingly, the Giants are the only team with worse odds to win the NFC East.
That last part seems fair, at least. Both the Eagles and Commanders went to the NFC Championship game last year, with Philadelphia winning the Super Bowl, and neither team lost any of their biggest names. Both are good bets to get back to the playoffs, while the Cowboys lost 10 games last year and have a first-time head coach.
Having the third-best odds to win the division feels right at this point, but having the fourth-worst odds to go to the playoffs out of the NFC? That’s the part that conveys how grossly underestimated this team is right now.
It’s understandable why oddsmakers aren’t taking this team seriously, though. The messy process that led to Mike McCarthy ditching the organization and then saw Jerry Jones pivot to Brian Schottenheimer – who was on the radar of zero other teams – brought fan interest to an all-time low.
Since then, though, the Cowboys have done and said just about all the right things.
They were extremely active in free agency, still not spending big money but bringing in more players via signings and trades than their last two offseasons combined. They built an impressive coaching staff with a clear vision for the new era of Cowboys football and pursued players who fit that mold in the draft.
And, after missing out on the top receiver in said draft, the Cowboys continued to churn the roster by trading for George Pickens. All the while, Schottenheimer has used every speaking appearance to talk about how physical the team will be and generally instill confidence in fans that his personality has already made him a popular figure in the locker room, someone the players want to play for.
Of course, the biggest story for the Cowboys – that everyone seems to be overlooking – is Dak Prescott. The quarterback continues to be a lightning rod for opinion, but the fact remains that Prescott – who is still only 15 months removed from finishing second in MVP voting – is good at taking the Cowboys to the playoffs.
Cowboys’ playoff chase with and without Dak Prescott
Games Played
Team Record
NFC East Finish
Playoffs?
Games Played
Team Record
NFC East Finish
Playoffs?
2016
16
13-3
1st
1-seed
2017
16
9-7
2nd
Missed
2018
16
10-6
1st
4-seed
2019
16
8-8
2nd
Missed
2020
5
6-10
3rd
Missed
2021
16
12-5
1st
3-seed
2022
12
12-5
2nd
5-seed
2023
17
12-5
1st
2-seed
2024
8
7-10
3rd
Missed
In seasons where Prescott plays at least 12 games, the Cowboys have only missed the postseason twice, both of which came under Jason Garrett. The Cowboys have also never finished with a losing season when Prescott plays at least 12 games.
That last part is especially salient, considering most oddsmakers now have the Cowboys’ over/under on regular season wins set at 7.5 for this upcoming season. Not only do these so-called experts think the Cowboys won’t make the playoffs, but they think Dallas doesn’t even finish with a winning record.
The only logical explanations for such a projection are either 1) oddsmakers believe Prescott is going to get hurt again, considering that’s the only way the Cowboys have ever had a losing season in his time in Dallas, or 2) they think Prescott, who has always powered his team above .500 and almost always taken them to the playoffs, will fail to do so despite being healthy.
Neither of those lines of reasoning seem like smart money at the moment.
That’s without even getting into the particulars of the roster. Newsflash: CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons still exist! Not only that, but the Cowboys’ schedule features seven games against opponents who had losing records last year and five games against teams who made the playoffs but had losing records two years ago. The schedule features some big names, but few of them are certified heavyweights.
It’s quite clear what this disrespect ultimately comes down to. People are still getting their jokes off about Schottenheimer being the head coach, ignoring the impressive staff and strong rapport with players that he’s built, and they’re also forgetting just how good this team – namely Prescott – is.
After all, just a year ago with the same core nucleus of players the Cowboys were given an over/under of 10 wins, which was already taking into account lower expectations.
Now, the Cowboys have an upgraded receiving corps for a fully healthy Prescott and the uncertainty around the new coaching staff is already offset by the fact that Schottenheimer won’t be dealing with weekly questions about his contract expiring in a few months. Yet they can’t even finish above .500?
It makes no sense, and while this is not betting advice of any sort, the Cowboys seem primed to way outperform their odds this season as of right now. Underestimate them at your own expense.