Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026 | 2 a.m.
I estimated the consensus implied probability of these two teams playing for the Lombardi over the summer at 0.08%.
Turns out, that might have been an overrate by some measures.
Circa Sports has since revealed that it took a $100 bet on a Super Bowl exacta for the Patriots to top the Seahawks at odds of 3,100-to-1 on Aug. 25, 2025 — 10 days before the first game of the season.
That price implied closer to a .05% chance New England and Seattle would reach the final game of the season, scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Sunday in Santa Clara, Calif.
It would also be the longest-odds wager ever paid out by the biggest sports book in Las Vegas according to social media posts by Director of Operations Jeffrey Benson.
The ticketholder would claim a $310,000 windfall, and that person is probably not the only one who would cash a big ticket on the Patriots at Circa. A presumably different bettor also wagered on New England to win the Super Bowl at 250-to-1 on Sept. 22 at Circa according to Benson.
That was after the Patriots had started the season 1-2 with losses to the Raiders and Patriots.
Surely those bettors have at least considered, if not acted on, arbitraging to lock in a profit either way in case the Seahawks win.
But could there be any merit to believing there’s value on the Patriots at the current market price and letting it ride?
Read my handicap of the final game of the season below. The overall record for the season picking every game now sits at 150-124-10 (53-47-4 on plays, 50-37-6 on leans and 47-40 on guesses) after splitting on conference championship week.
Super Bowl 60: Seattle Seahawks -4.5 vs. New England Patriots, over/under: 45.
The Patriots faced a historically easy regular-season schedule — the third most forgiving of all-time according to the DVOA ratings — and saw their luck stick in the playoffs with a path of injury-plagued opponents.
Their defense underachieved in the early to midparts of the season and rated below average by virtually every all-encompassing metric. That’s flipped, as many expected it would with a team coached by Mike Vrabel and the return of injured shutdown cornerback Christian Gonzalez, but now the offense is slipping.
Second-year quarterback phenom Drake Maye hasn’t flashed the Most Valuable Player-worthy caliber he showed in the regular season throughout the playoffs. Maye has dropped from 8.9 yards per pass attempt to 6.9 yards per pass attempt with an interception rate that’s more than doubled, a turnover-worthy play that’s spiked even higher and a QBR that’s fallen off 20 points.
The Patriots need Maye to tap back into his earlier, elite form because the rest of the roster is mediocre at best for Super Bowl standards. Talent-wise, the Patriots are more around league-average.
The Seahawks have flaws of their own.
Maye’s inconsistency may look tame next to his counterpart, Sam Darnold. The veteran has been lights-out in two playoff games, and is perhaps coming off the best game of his career in a 31-27 NFC Championship Game win over the 49ers, but the Seahawks’ offense had been declining before that.
It was not as efficient in the second half of the regular season as it was in the first when the first-year pairing of Darnold and presumed future Raiders coach Klint Kubiak initially came together.
Darnold is mistake-prone and had a reputation for coming up short in big games before the recent pair of wins over the Rams.
Seattle is also largely inexperienced everywhere else on the roster, as it would be one of the youngest teams to ever win the Super Bowl.
But does that matter? Historically, more Super Bowl teams have fit the draft-and-develop mold of the Seahawks than the Patriots’ rebuild-ahead-of-schedule setup with the right coach, quarterback and a free-agent splurge combination.
The demerits on the Patriots coming into this game are a lot more compelling than the ones on the other side.
The game could also schematically favor the Seahawks. Vrabel’s defenses have always hyperfixated on stopping the run, but Seattle’s offense is far more effective when throwing.
That’s true for almost every offense, but the splits are more stark when it comes to Seattle with 8.5 yards per pass attempt to 4.1 yards per rush attempt.
The Seahawks may also be more willing to get away from running earlier with one of their two go-to backs, Zach Charbonnet, out with a knee injury. Kenneth Walker is a more explosive runner and has thrived without Charbonnet, who got hurt in the second quarter of a divisional-round win over the 49ers, in the playoffs but this is his toughest matchup yet.
The Seahawks also didn’t appear to trust him as much as Charbonnet all year with the high-leverage touches skewed in the latter’s favor so bet under 77.5 rushing yards for Walker.
This game just might be an offensive slog all around.
Both pass rushes have gotten better as the season has progressed, and have weak points to attack on the opposing offensive lines. Darnold has struggled mightily against pressure throughout his career and, though betting “no” and “unders” is typically the better way to go in Super Bowls, firing on him to throw an interception at -120 (i.e. risking $120 to win $100) might be worthwhile.
Turnovers might be the only way this game could turn into the type of shootout seen in the last three Super Bowls, all three of which went over. Super Bowl 60 forecasts like much more of an under, though I’m not alone in that projection.
The total opened as high as 46.5 and has shifted into the more statistically justified 45 over the last two weeks.
Don’t force a wager on the under at the new price but there are other ways to bet on that style of game winning out. Taking neither team to score three straight times at +155 (i.e. risking $100 to win $155) is one worthwhile stab.
The “yes” on “Will either team score three straight times?” has been a staple wager of this column in past Super Bowls, mostly to success, but this year feel different.
It’s the biggest Super Bowl spread in five years and might be reviving an old trend that hadn’t appeared with the last three matchups all sitting around pick’em. Namely, those backing the underdog are taking the moneyline.
The Patriots are as low as +185 to win the game outright, a shorter-than-usual price for a 4.5-point underdog. That’s leaving value on the Seahawks at -220 on the moneyline, as a team favored by as much as they are would typically lay at least 10 cents more.
The moneyline is technically a better bet than the point spread at the moment, but this is a column that picks the latter all season long.
Seattle -4.5 is no tremendous value — especially if the above game-state plays out. Lower-scoring games inherently favor underdogs.
The Seahawks have questions, but there are far more on the Patriots’ side. A favorite hasn’t covered in a Super Bowl since 2020 when the Chiefs stormed back to beat the 49ers 31-20 as 1.5-point favorites.
That streak comes to end in Levi’s Stadium. A completely unpredictable Super Bowl matchup ends with a remarkably foreseeable result.
Seahawks 24, Patriots 16.
Play: Seahawks -4.5.