The New England Patriots have leaned on their defense to win games this postseason. Offensively, they’ve been able to make enough plays to win, but it’s been a struggle. They’ve also faced a series of elite defenses, according to DVOA, FTN’s efficiency metric that accounts for schedule strengths.
The Patriots faced the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round, a defense ranked 10th in DVOA. It was the Houston Texans, who rank second in DVOA, in the divisional round. They faced the Denver Broncos, who rank fifth in DVOA, in the AFC Championship Game. It’ll get no easier in the Super Bowl on Sunday when they will face a Seattle Seahawks defense that ranks first in DVOA.
The first question any team that faces the Seahawks has to ask: Can they run the ball credibly on a Seattle defense that plays nearly every snap with five or more defensive backs on the field and two deep safeties?
The Seahawks rank second in the league in defensive rushing success rate, even with their resources dedicated to stopping explosive passes. It’s what makes their defense one of the more unique units in recent memory.
The Los Angeles Rams have one of the most efficient run games of the last quarter-century, and ran for over 100 yards in each of their last two matchups against the Seahawks. The Patriots ranked 22nd in rushing success rate in the regular season, and their efficiency has been worse in the playoffs. They are a team that relies on explosive rushes (runs of 12-plus yards). They ranked eighth in explosive rush rate in the regular season, and that has continued in the postseason. However, the Seahawks are the best team in the league at preventing explosive runs, surrendering an explosive rush on only 3.6 percent of plays. Collectively, they are the most sound tackling team in the league.
An edge that the Patriots do have in the run game is that they are a gap-scheme rushing team, leading the league in gap-scheme runs in the regular season. The Seahawks rank 13th in defensive success rate against gap-scheme runs, according to Fantasy Points. The Seahawks have played against better offensive lines and running backs, but they haven’t played against a scheme quite like the Patriots’. It’s not necessarily a glaring weakness, but it’ll be interesting to see if the Patriots can get 3-to-4-yard chunks and keep their offense on schedule.
The Patriots will likely use a sixth offensive lineman (they’ve used jumbo sets on 18.4 percent of snaps since Week 11) and try to get the Seahawks to put their base personnel (four or fewer defensive backs) on the field, which they’ve only used on 7.4 percent of snaps (fewest in the NFL). The Rams also had some success running draw plays (fake pass before handing off to the running backs). Draw and variations of it have been in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels’ playbook since his earlier stints in New England. The Patriots do have some answers on paper, but moving defensive tackles Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams consistently will be a tough task. They’ve been the anchor for the Seahawks defense.
The Seahawks will rarely deviate from their two-deep shells, but if the Patriots can run the ball, it’ll force Seattle to rotate a safety into the box post-snap to help against the run. The Rams were able to create big plays when the Seahawks rotated into one-high coverages. The weak point in their defense is their outside corners (Josh Jobe and Riq Woolen). Neither is a bad player, but they aren’t on par with the rest of the defense. Rams receivers Davante Adams and Puka Nacua beat them several times in their last two meetings in one-on-one situations. However, the Patriots don’t have receivers nearly as skilled as that duo. Stefon Diggs is mainly a slot receiver at this point in his career. Can Mack Hollins and Kayshon Boutte win in one-on-ones when the opportunity presents itself?
The Seahawks keep their outside corners protected by playing a lot of split-field coverages (cover 6 or cover 8).
Divisional round, 12:44 remaining in the second quarter, third-and-10
When playing cover 6, the Seahawks will sometimes play the cover 2 portion on the side of their opponent’s best receiver. In this case, it was the San Francisco 49ers’ Ricky Pearsall, who had 108 yards against them in Week 1. The Seahawks played cover 2 on Pearsall’s side and cover 4 on the opposite side.
The reasoning is to surround the opponent’s best receiver with zone defenders. As you can see, this coverage will naturally give a check down to running backs. Quarterback Brock Purdy hit Christian McCaffrey on this play, but he was tackled short of the sticks.
The Seahawks can stay in these coverages all game if they aren’t threatened by the run, and put a lid on the Patriots’ passing game. You need receivers who can create after the catch against these coverages, or be able to buy enough time for receivers get all the way across the field. The Patriots ranked 19th in yards after the catch (YAC) per reception (5.0). Running back Rhamondre Stevenson was their best YAC receiver (8.2 YAC/rep).
Naturally, the Seahawks defense allows space for backs to catch passes underneath. They allowed the most receptions to running backs in the league, though that number is a little deceiving because they had a lot of leads and forced offenses into situations where they checked the ball down. Stevenson will get opportunities to catch the ball, but his ability to make defenders miss in space will be essential.
Additionally, the Seahawks haven’t faced many scrambling quarterbacks this season. They saw Arizona’s Kyler Murray and Washington’s Jayden Daniels each once. They didn’t make any schematic changes against either quarterback to account for their running — they played even more two-deep coverages than usual. One answer that they did have was to use stunts to create interior pressure. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye led the league in scramble yards on early downs (330), according to Next Gen Stats. I don’t anticipate the Seahawks taking a defender out of coverage to account for Maye’s leaks, but they could use strategies like odd mirror, in which they’ll use a three-man rush to flush Maye toward an aggressive spy, which becomes the fourth rusher.
Against Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams last season, they crowded the line of scrimmage and zero blitzed him (man-to-man with no deep help), which is a strategy we could see them use. Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald doesn’t call them often, but he will when the opponent gets into Seahawks territory.
Maye hasn’t been zero blitzed often, but has struggled when he has. They only average 3.9 yards per play and completed 42.9 percent of passes against zero blitz. Macdonald could crank the dial on them to get the ball out of Maye’s hands quickly and not allow him to scramble.
AFC Championship Game, 9:24 remaining in the third quarter, second-and-10
Here, the Broncos had a zero blitz called against the Patriots with the ball in the high red zone. The Patriots only had five in to block, and the Broncos brought one.
The idea was to release Stevenson against edge linebacker Nik Bonitto, but the route took too long to develop. The pressure caused Maye to throw an incomplete pass. Part of why Maye has been inefficient against zero blitzes is that he doesn’t have many weapons that can quickly win. Diggs is his best quick target, but he’d likely have cornerback Devon Witherspoon on him in these situations. Demario Douglas scored a touchdown against a zero blitz against the Texans, but Houston busted a coverage. Tight end Hunter Henry will have to make a play in these situations.
The Seahawks defense has been one of the best units in the league all season, and the Patriots don’t have the run game or receivers that the Rams do to exploit some of the Seahawks’ weaknesses. They need their gap scheme runs to effectively keep them on schedule and will need a super hero effort from Maye. They need to buy time and create a structure routinely to have a chance. Can the second-year quarterback deliver and firmly establish himself as one of the elites in the biggest game of his career?