We are well over two months away from the 2026 NFL Draft, and there is only one thing almost everyone agrees on: the Las Vegas Raiders will select Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick. Another near certainty is that the Washington Commanders will take a defensive player with the No. 7 overall pick.
While Washington has needs on offense, primarily a starting wide receiver, a running back and a receiving tight end, the early focus will likely be on defense, where the Commanders need several starters. Washington’s most significant need is a dominant edge rusher. Most mock drafts project the top two edge defenders, Texas Tech’s David Bailey and Miami’s Rueben Bain Jr., to Washington.
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There is speculation that the Tennessee Titans will not pass up Bailey at No. 4 overall.
In a new mock draft for NFL.com, analytics expert Cynthia Frelund unveiled her first mock draft of 2026. Frelund has the Titans passing on Bailey at No. 4, instead selecting Utah offensive tackle Spencer Fano. That left Bailey on the board for the Commanders at No. 7.
Dan Quinn is a defensive-minded head coach and pairing him with Bailey is a win-win for both parties in terms of coaching and raw-skills fit.
The Commanders want to land an edge rusher who can also set the edge and defend the run. Bain is a better run defender than Bailey, but is not at his level as a pure pass rusher. No one is close to Bailey as an impact rusher in this draft class. A high-level pass rusher would go a long way in improving the Commanders’ woeful defense.
Washington will likely add an edge player in free agency, too, to pair with Dorance Armstrong. If Frelund’s mock draft holds true, that would be excellent news for the Commanders.
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This article originally appeared on Commanders Wire: Washington Commanders land David Bailey in analytics-based mock draft