The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite for Super Bowl LX on DraftKings Sportsbook. Will they cover the spread, or can the Patriots keep things close?
A grueling, but oh-so-exciting NFL season reaches its conclusion on Sunday with Super Bowl LX. The New England Patriots, led by second-year quarterback Drake Maye, have fought hard to get to this point in the first campaign under head coach Mike Vrabel. However, they face a very tough task against a Seattle Seahawks team with excellent coaching from Mike Macdonald along with a litany of playmakers.
The opening line for this game on DraftKings Sportsbook favored Seattle by 4.5 points, and that spread remains the same less than 48 hours out from kickoff.
Will the Seahawks cover the spread in Super Bowl LX?
Will the Seahawks cover the spread in Super Bowl LX?
This is a highly anticipated matchup that’ll pit two of the NFL’s top teams against each other. The Seahawks dominated during the regular season to the tune of a 14-3 record and the NFC’s No. 1 seed, scoring the third-most points in football while allowing the fewest of any team in the entire league. Excellent play on both sides of the ball — whether it be the Sam Darnold & Jaxon Smith-Njigba connection on offense, or a fearsome pass rush and hard-hitting secondary on defense — have allowed this team to succeed each week. Seattle also proved itself against the best by downing the Los Angeles Rams twice this season, including a hard-fought victory in the NFC Championship Game.
On the other side, there’s no denying that the Patriots are one of the league’s best units. Vrabel won Coach of the Year for a reason after turning a 4-13 squad into a 14-3 division-winner. Maye’s play as an MVP candidate propelled an offense lacking true standout weapons into the NFL’s second-highest scoring, while a talented defense held opponents to the fourth-fewest points in the regular season. However, there were questions surrounding the team’s viability as a true contender for a Super Bowl due to a historically easy schedule. Playoff wins are playoff wins, but New England’s offense didn’t look particularly effective in any of its three victories to get here. Sure, those each came against some of the top defenses in the NFL, but the concerns are still somewhat valid.
And so here we are, analyzing betting lines in an effort to get to the root of this matchup. Can the Seahawks cover the 4.5-point spread at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California come Sunday?
The signs actually point to yes.
At a baseline level, Seattle’s record against the spread on the full season’s sample (including playoffs) sits at 14-5. As a favorite, that mark reads 12-4, as well. The Seahawks’ average scoring margin of +12.1 also leads the entire NFL, and 12 of their 16 total wins have come by a five-point margin or greater. Against other playoff teams, they went a combined 6-4 against a 4.5-point spread, too.
Meanwhile, New England’s ATS record reads 13-6-1 on the full campaign. When playing as an underdog, the Patriots have gone 4-2, and they’re 2-1 ATS in the postseason thus far. They have won 17 games outright, and of their losses, one of the three came by fewer than 4.5 points. The Pats’ average scoring margin of +9.9 also ranks second in the NFL behind only the Seahawks.
Sure, New England looked like a dominant team throughout the regular season, but that hasn’t been the case in the playoffs. The Patriots managed just 16 points in the Wild Card against the Los Angeles Chargers; an impressive 28 points against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round; then only 10 points against the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game. It’s worth noting that one touchdown in the Houston game also came from a pick-six, so the offense hasn’t exactly posted the standout scoring performances we saw through the first 18 weeks of the year.
That factor is one of the main reasons the Seahawks are capable of covering in this game. Seattle ranks first in points per game allowed and seventh in yards per game allowed, also holding opponents to the lowest third-down conversion rate and fifth-lowest red-zone scoring percentage in the league. Those marks all include the playoff sample. Bettors should also consider that the Seahawks finished the regular season with the NFL’s best rating in defensive DVOA along with the second-lowest total EPA allowed and EPA/play. This is a dominant defense which New England simply may not be able to crack.
Beyond that, though, there’s one more reason to feel bullish about Seattle’s chances to cover the spread. The offense is undoubtedly elite, ranking second in points per game and seventh in yards per game. While just 15th in total offensive EPA and 10th in offensive DVOA, the Seahawks play a style of football that leans on the run game to win the time-of-possession battle and set up explosive plays downfield. They’re a much better offense than any of the three that the Patriots have faced through the playoffs so far, and New England falls 23rd in defensive DVOA as well.
Dear reader, those are a lot of numbers to throw at you. No worries if the advanced stats aren’t for you, just allow us to sum it up for you.
The Patriots are good, but they’ve arguably underperformed over the postseason thus far. After playing the fifth-easiest schedule in NFL history per DVOA rankings, they’re not as battle-tested as their opponent, either. The Seahawks have a strong advantage on defense and superior star weapons lining up within their own offense, too. This may not be a blowout, but it’ll likely result in both a win for Seattle and an opportunity to cover the spread while claiming a Lombardi Trophy.