CLEVELAND, Ohio — Sam Darnold will become the first quarterback from the 2018 NFL Draft to start in the Super Bowl this evening.
The quarterback class from that draft is still making noise to this day.
There’s Baker Mayfield (No. 1 pick), Darnold (No. 3 pick), Josh Allen (No. 7 pick) and Lamar Jackson (No. 32). Quite the class. Counting No. 10 pick Josh Rosen, there were five quarterbacks taken in the first round.
If we ranked the best of that class, Jackson and Allen hold the top two spots. No matter how you flip it, No. 1 and No. 2, those former MVP winners are the best.
For the longest time, the No. 3 spot belonged to Mayfield.
But thanks to Darnold’s play the last couple seasons, he gives Mayfield a run for that rank.
Mayfield and Darnold have experienced career resurgences in different forms.
Hardships in their career beginnings led to spending half of the 2022 season together in Carolina, where Darnold was Mayfield’s backup before Mayfield was waived.
Mayfield found his resurgence in Tampa Bay, which has come with Pro Bowl nods and playoff berths.
While Darnold found his resurgence in Minnesota, where he was supposed to be the backup, and carried it to Seattle this season. He earned a couple Pro Bowl nods in the midst of it.
Based on Darnold’s play the last couple seasons, has he already passed Mayfield as the third-best quarterback in the 2018 class?
And if not, would winning Super Bowl LX put him over Mayfield?
To best determine this, we’ll focus primarily on their play in the 2025 season.
Note: These are regular-season totals.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6).APPocket presence
A hundred thoughts are going through the mind of an NFL quarterback after snapping the ball. A split decision must be made, and it better overlap with getting rid of the ball.
As for Mayfield and Darnold, they did a solid job of getting rid of the ball this season.
Among all quarterbacks within quickest time to throw, Mayfield tied for 25th (2.85 seconds), while Darnold tied for 27th (2.86 seconds), per Next Gen Stats.
But the consequences of those split-second decisions often reveal themselves in a quarterback’s style of play.
Mayfield’s style of play is a little backyard-esque. He doesn’t mind scrambling out of the pocket to squirm his way through the opposing pressure.
That led to him ranking first among quarterbacks in yards per rush (6.9) and tied for second in first-down gains on third-down rushes (21), per JoeBucsFan.
However, if it doesn’t go right, it can lead to a sack.
The quarterback rankings for sacks responsible for, via Pro Football Focus.Pro Football Focus
Of Mayfield’s 36 times sacked, he was responsible for 11 of them. That tied for the 30th-fewest among qualifying quarterbacks, per Pro Football Focus.
Darnold, on the other hand, was sacked 27 times. But he tied for seventh in fewest sacks responsible for (three), per PFF.
Why is that?
Well, Darnold’s style of play doesn’t relate to scrambling. He looks to operate in the pocket and find his target in three seconds or less.
It’s worked well for him this season, tying for eighth in completion percentage (67.7%).
Both quarterbacks have their own ways of operating, but Darnold’s way has benefited his team more.
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14).AP/John FroschauerDeep
All NFL quarterbacks can throw it deep, but not everyone can do so efficiently.
This season, Mayfield did the latter.
At times, his passes were released with quirky form or looked to be heading to no man’s land.
On passes that traveled 20 or more yards downfield, Mayfield ranked 11th in 24 deep-ball completions (24) and ranked 24th rank in deep-ball completion percentage (36.9%), per Pro Football Focus.
Despite Mayfield ranking 14th in intended air yards (8.0), he averaged only 5.2 air yards per completion, which tied for 29th.
The rankings for quarterback’s efficiency rate on deep passes of 20 or more yards downfield, per Pro Football Focus.Pro Football Focus
Could Tampa Bay’s West Coast offense, a scheme that emphasizes quick and precise passing, play a part in his low average?
Perhaps, but that argument doesn’t hold up since he ran the same offense under Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland in 2020 and 2021.
During those two years, Mayfield averaged 7.2 air yards, and 6.5 the next season.
And here’s the best part … Seattle also ran the West Coast offense this year.
The quarterback rankings for completed air yards on average, per Pro Football Reference.Pro Football Reference
Among qualifying quarterbacks, Darnold ranked fifth in deep-ball completions (30) and second in deep-ball completion percentage (58.8%), per PFF.
Mayfield actually took more deep-ball shots (65) compared to Darnold (51), indicating Tampa Bay was more aggressive deep downfield.
But Darnold was just more efficient.
That overlapped with his air yard average, which he’s improved each year.
His average this season was 7.0 air yards per completion, which tied for sixth among all quarterbacks and was 0.1 less than his 2024 average.
Red zone
When your offense enters the red zone, the intention is to walk away with a touchdown.
Between Mayfield and Darnold, both experienced similar successes, though a slight separation was made.
The comparison from an analytical perspective in the redzone, per SumerSportsSumerSports
According to SumerSports, Mayfield was better in the red zone.
He was quicker in time to throw (2.74 seconds), more efficient (59.7%) and finished with a better touchdown-interception ratio (16 TDs-1 INT).
Darnold’s average depth of target, or ADOT, was better (6.25), but Mayfield has him beat across the board.
Clutch
Allen and Jackson didn’t earn their recognition solely off good play.
They earned it off delivering in the final moments, the two-minute drill, when it counted.
That is what viewers first remember quarterbacks by; how good they were in the clutch.
That’s no different for Mayfield and Darnold.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield.AP
As of now, Mayfield holds 16 game-winning drives.
Four of those came within the first five weeks of this 2025 season, and one of which came versus Darnold and Seattle.
In each of those comeback wins, Tampa Bay didn’t lead going into the final minute, but Mayfield led the way and set up for points for them to win by the skin of their teeth.
Darnold’s name might not be synonymous with “game-winning drive,” but he holds 14 game-winning drives.
Four came this season, including an overtime win., including an overtime win over the Rams where Seattle trailed by 16 at one point in the final quarter.
Darnold led the comeback and capped it off with a two-point conversion throw to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the overtime win.
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold celebrates after the NFC Championship.APConclusion
Generally speaking, Darnold has trumped Mayfield as the third-best quarterback from the 2018 NFL Draft class.
How long he holds onto that spot, or even moves up from that rank, depends on his play.
But one thing is for sure: Darnold could be the first to win a ring and have a big part in it come tonight.
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