Since we don’t have the Green Bay Packers playing today (alas), let’s learn a bit about the nerdier strengths and weaknesses that will be on display from the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. And while I do think there is a path to victory for the Patriots in this game, I suspect the Seahawks will win, and probably win rather convincingly. First, let’s dispatch with the Patriots’ positives, because there are some.
First, Drake Maye is, I think, a truly elite quarterback. I don’t think this is a controversial take, but it is an important one because I think it takes a truly elite quarterback to move the ball on Seattle. Now-MVP Matthew Stafford was one of the few quarterbacks to do any damage against the Seahawks this year, and Maye is the only quarterback currently playing on his level.
Second, aside from his passing, Maye is mobile, and his 65 rushing yards and a score against Denver were crucial to New England reaching the Super Bowl in the first place. Seattle has actually struggled a bit with mobile quarterbacks, including Cam Ward in a surprisingly close game against the Titans. It was also Washington’s only offense in a blowout loss in Week 9.
And third, Sam Darnold is prone to have the occasional disaster game, and did so twice against the Rams this year, although Seattle won one of those anyway, because they’re awesome. My point is that, of course, New England has a plausible shot. But I don’t think it happens, and if you take a longer look under the surface, some big problems start to crop up.
Solving Seattle’s defense is just brutally difficult. They are talented at all levels, they get pressure routinely out of their base looks, and in the rare instances they do blitz, they are among the most effective teams in the league. They are first against the run in EPA, and fifth against the pass, but by DVOA, which adjusts for the quality of opposition, they’re also first against the pass. What pushes their defense from merely great to something close to historically great are their two Swiss army knives, linebacker Ernest Jones and nickel back/safety hybrid Nick Emmanwori. Their unparalleled versatility allows the Seattle defense to dominate whether it’s a run or a pass without changing personnel. And upfront, everyone in their front four has at least six sacks.
While Drake Maye is fantastic, the New England skill position players are just OK. Stefon Diggs is a savvy veteran who leads the team in most receiving statistics, but he’s definitely lost a step at this point, and in any case the Patriots are excellent against a team’s number two outside receiver (for charting purposes, this is the position usually run by Diggs, who plays about half his snaps outside and half in the slot). Their number one (again, for charting purposes) is Kayshon Boutte, who has had a great season as a reliable deep threat. Unfortunately, Seattle is the number one team against such receivers. Puka Nacua and Davante Adams have bucked this trend, and so there is some hope, but most teams have had issues attacking the Seahawks outside.
Seattle has had some vulnerability against seam-stretching tight ends, and both Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper have had impressive seasons creating explosive plays, averaging over 12 yards per reception, most of which comes via Yards After Catch, and Seattle just doesn’t allow much YAC out of anyone.
But here’s the nuts and bolts of why it’s an exceptionally bad matchup.
JSN was arguably the best receiver in football this year, and certainly no worse than top five. The Patriots, on the other hand, ranked 31st in DVOA against number one receivers this year. And they didn’t play a ton of great number one receivers, so this is especially damning. Now, they’ve made some noise about having their top corner Christian Gonzalez follow JSN instead of sticking to sides, and maybe that helps, but color me skeptical. For starters, Gonzalez is a better “physical player” than he is a cover corner, and none of that helped in week nine against Atlanta when Drake London caught nine balls for 118 yards and three scores. The Falcons only played (literally) two receivers in that game, Darnell Mooney being the other, and if you’re not dedicating your best corner to the one important guy in that instance, you may have larger issues at work.
Drake Maye’s Sack Issue
Maye’s great, but he’s not without his flaws, and one of the biggest flaws still in his game is his propensity to take sacks. Only three QBs (Cam Ward, Geno Smith, Justin Herbert) took more total sacks than Maye, and Maye doesn’t have any of Herbert’s excuses. Poor Justin Herbert was under pressure all of the time and was sacked on 20.8% of his pressures, which isn’t great, but Maye’s better protection and weaker schedule served to conceal that he’s much worse about taking stats than Herbert. Maye was sacked on 23.8% of these pressures, fourth worst in the league (Geno Smith, Tyler Shough, Cam Ward).
Maye didn’t really face many elite pass rushes over the course of the season, but he very much will this week, and I expect Seattle to get home frequently, which leads us to a compounding issue.
Drake Maye’s Tiny Hands
Drake Maye has 17 career fumbles already, including eight this season. That doesn’t include his six playoff fumbles so far this year, none of which came in the squalls of Denver miraculously. Four of them, however, came against the outstanding Houston defense, one of the only defenses that can match Seattle’s production. Maye got away with it against Houston because CJ Stroud imploded on the other side. That is not nearly so likely to happen in the Super Bowl. And yes, the man has tiny hands for a QB.
Finally, New England is an excellent running team. Rhamondre Stevenson actually led the NFL in rushing yards over expected, while TreVeyon Henderson was no slouch himself as the more dynamic of the duo. So how can it be a bad thing to be good at running? It is if it tempts you to try running against the Seattle defense, because as good as they were against the pass this year, they were even better against the run. The only real significant yards they gave up were on QB scrambles, and running backs were helpless. Basically, every attempted rush against Seattle is just pissing away a play, and you cannot do that against this team. You cannot play from behind, you cannot get into third and longs, and running is the quickest way to get you there.
It just seems like a terrible matchup for New England, and while Maye’s brilliance could be enough to make it more competitive than I suspect it will be, it seems more likely to just snowball out of control, where Seattle can control the clock on the ground and come after Maye as he frantically tries to rally the troops.
But at least it’s an interesting matchup! Elite QB versus elite defense is always worth watching, and to some extent, I hope I’m wrong, because Maye will probably need something of a legendary performance to win this, and those are the best kind.