Arizona will be No. 1 in the Associated Press Top 25 poll for the ninth straight week Monday, but it’s currently No. 2 at KenPom, the advanced statistics site, behind Michigan.

Those two teams have been trading places for the last few weeks, with Arizona passing Michigan after Saturday’s 84-47 win over Oklahoma State, and Michigan jumping back in front after its 21-point win at Ohio State on Sunday.

If the season were to end today, Michigan would have the third-highest efficiency margin in the history of KenPom and Arizona would rank fifth. (KenPom’s database goes back to the 1996-97 season.)

Those teams could be on a collision course for one of the most epic national title games ever, but if they’re on a top tier by themselves, the next tier, where I’d have UConn, Duke, Illinois and Houston, isn’t too far behind. Houston has the worst resume of that group, which is why even though the first three all lost over the weekend, I kept the Cougars exactly where they were a week ago.

You could conceivably go even deeper, including Nebraska, Iowa State and Michigan State.

A reflection of the depth at the top: Heading into this past week, the top 10 teams in the Associated Press poll had a combined 16 losses, and nine had come to other top 10 teams. You could say this was the first bad week for that group, with five teams losing, but two of those five came to fellow top-10 teams and two others were to Top 25 teams. (That’s why Gonzaga, now one of two Top 25 teams with a Quad 3 loss took a big dive for its loss to Portland.)

One other note on this week’s rankings: I dropped Clemson, even though Clemson did not lose a game last week. Iowa, which has won six straight and is up to No. 18 at KenPom, bumped the Tigers, who would be 26 on my ballot.

More below on Arizona contesting everything, Houston’s shot differential, Michigan State’s Jeremy Fears Jr. using “Gortats,” the elite defense of Florida’s bigs, St. John’s taking off with Dillon Mitchell as the point forward and the pass that set up North Carolina’s game winner.

Dropped out: Clemson

Keeping an eye on: NC State, Utah State, Villanova, Kentucky

1. Arizona (23-0)

Arizona had the best adjusted defensive efficiency in the country until Michigan passed it Sunday, and one reason Arizona’s defense is so elite is that it’s a rarity to get an open shot against it. Oklahoma State scored just 47 points on 75 possessions on Saturday, and I charted every shot. The Cowboys had only 10 open shots and made just four — a dunk in transition, a banked-in elbow jumper, a layup and a 3-pointer.

The Wildcats are allowing opponents to shoot just 48.2 percent at the rim, best among high-major teams, per Synergy. In two games last week, they allowed just three easy baskets at the rim. Everything is contested. They keep the ball in front of them, and they’re extremely long, the seventh-tallest team in college basketball, according to KenPom.

Michigan and Arizona both play to the numbers, allowing the most dribble jumpers per game in the country, according to Synergy’s tracking. Kansas has one of the best off-the-dribble scorers in college basketball in Darryn Peterson. He’s going to have to have an awesome game for Kansas to have a shot at giving Arizona its first loss on Monday.

6. Houston (21-2)

Houston is leading college basketball in field-goal attempt differential. This is Kelvin Sampson’s best team at getting more shots (11.1 per game) than the opponent.

The formula is always the same: force more turnovers than the opponent and win the glass. Where this team dominates is in the turnover category, giving away the ball on only 12.4 percent of its possessions (second-best nationally) and taking it away on 22.6 percent of opponents’ possessions (fifth-best).

Houston outpaces other high-majors by a large margin in both field goal attempts and turnover differential:

(Source: CBB Analytics)

What’s wild is the Cougars are getting even better at taking care of the ball in Big 12 play, turning it over on only 10.3 percent of their possessions. They have just 13 turnovers in their last three games.

10. Michigan State (20-4)

Fears is so elite at navigating the middle of the floor and finding tiny gaps to attack and waiting for his bigs to set “Gortat” screens — named for former NBA center Marcin Gortat — to give him lanes to attack.

Against Illinois, Fears scored four of his buckets that were set up by either a Gortat screen or one on a second screen in the lane, and he also was sent to the free-throw line twice on plays set up by Gortats.

Fears has mastered the hostage dribble, pinning his defender in front of him and then waiting for his big to run back in front of him and take out the rim protector.

Between his points, assists and passes that set up free throws, Fears accounted for 61 of Michigan State’s 85 points in Saturday’s overtime win over Illinois. It was one of the best single-game performances this season.

12. Florida (17-6)

Texas A&M is the kind of team that, on paper, would seem to be built to score against Florida’s defense. The Aggies are small and play five-out offense. The Gators start three bigs. So the plan would be to force those bigs to guard out on the floor on islands.

The Aggies tried, and they scored on just two of their first 18 possessions. It took until the 7:44 mark of the first half for them to score their second bucket.

Florida’s bigs can all slide their feet, which allows the Gators to rarely bring help and keep assist numbers low.

Synergy tracks who the defender was at the end of a possession, and while it’s not 100 percent accurate, it’s close. So I pulled the three categories that reflect how hard it is to score against Florida’s bigs off the bounce.

Alex CondonRueben ChinyeluThomas HaughOverall

Dribble jumpers

7-27

14-23

15-40

36-90 (40%)

Shots at rim

16-49

20-48

8-27

44-124 (35.4%)

Runners

4-7

0-2

2-8

6-17 (35.2%)

Overall

27-83 (32.5%)

34-73 (46.6%)

25-75 (33.3%)

86-231 (37.2%)

Not all the at-the-rim shots are off the dribble, but that at-the-rim percentage is pretty unreal. Those should be efficient shots, but they are not when Florida’s bigs are in the vicinity.

16. St. John’s (18-5)

The Johnnies are 9-0 since Rick Pitino reinserted 6-foot-8 senior Dillon Mitchell back into the starting lineup and turned him into a point forward.

Mitchell is a problem with a live dribble in space, which UConn found out:

“Where’s Skip 2 My Lou?! With that crossover!” 🎙️

Gus Johnson is loving what he’s seeing from @StJohnsBBall’s Dillon Mitchell so far. pic.twitter.com/ckWuKqg4iM

— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) February 7, 2026

Rick Pitino’s big-ball lineup (with Mitchell, Bryce Hopkins and Zuby Ejiofor) is outscoring opponents by 27.8 points per 100 possessions during this winning streak by dominating the offensive glass, getting back 42 percent of its misses, and winning the turnover battle, a 9.8 turnover rate while forcing opponents over on 20.2 percent of their possessions, per CBB Analytics.

The Johnnies could be on the verge of being even more dominant than they’ve been. Opponents have shot 39.3 percent from 3 during this winning streak, and some regression could be around the corner.

17. North Carolina (19-4)

Seth Trimble got all the love for hitting the game winner against Duke and rightfully so, but what about the pass?

On Jan. 17, during the second game of UNC’s nightmare West Coast swing, when it lost to Stanford and Cal, coach Hubert Davis decided to move freshman Derek Dixon into the starting lineup. The Heels lost that night, but they’ve won five straight since, and the offense has been brilliant with Dixon, scoring 1.29 points per possession with Dixon the floor over the last six games, per CBB Analytics.

Dixon is getting the ball where it needs to go, just as he did on the game winner:

SETH TRIMBLE WINS IT FOR NORTH CAROLINA 😱

OUR SPORT>>>> https://t.co/LetlawFb6y pic.twitter.com/oSMZvxphLj

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) February 8, 2026

Notice Caleb Wilson also had a free run to the rim and could have won the game with a dunk, but that may have been a harder pass. Delivering to either would have been a smart play. Also noticeable is Duke’s defensive breakdown, with Dame Sarr not realizing immediately that it was a switch. Had he stayed with Wilson, he would have likely been closer to Trimble on the release. It still might not have mattered, but it’s those tiny details that can win or lose a game, and the Heels were seamless on their switches late, which forced Duke into hard shots down the stretch.