How would the College Football Playoff’s updated seeding have impacted Penn State in 2024-25?

After one year of the College Football Playoff fielding a 12-team bracket, a significant change is coming to the postseason for the 2025 season. On Thursday, the College Football Playoff announced it will give the four highest-ranked teams according to the selection committee’s final rankings a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff with no requirement to be a conference champion. The five highest-ranked conference champions will still be guaranteed one spot in the 12-team playoff field, but a bye week is no longer guaranteed for the four highest-ranked champions.

The first round of the playoff will still be played matching teams based on seeding for teams No. 5-12 (No. 5 hosting No. 12, No. 6 hosting No. 11, No. 7 hosting No. 10, and No. 8 hosting No. 9). Conference champions could have to go on the road in the first round, as Clemson did last season.

If this seeding system were in place for the 2024 college football season, Penn State would have been given a first-round bye as one of the top four teams in the final College Football Playoff rankings of the season following the Big Ten championship game. Despite losing to Oregon, Penn State ended the season ranked No. 4 by the selection committee following the conference championship games, but the Nittany Lions were forced to play in the first round as the top four seeds were reserved exclusively for the four highest-ranked conference champions.

This new seeding format would also have given a first-round bye to the Texas Longhorns, who finished the regular season ranked No. 3 after losing in the SEC championship game to Georgia. Arizona State, the champions of the Big 12 last season, was ranked No. 12 by the committee but received the fourth first-round bye available as the fourth-highest-ranked conference champion. ACC champion Clemson was ranked No. 16 and secured a spot as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion.

Penn State took advantage of its home-field advantage in the first round with a victory over SMU that led to a Fiesta Bowl matchup and victory against Mountain West Conference champion Boise State in the quarterfinal round. Boise State was the fourth seed as the fourth-highest-ranked conference champion in the playoff, although the selection committee ranked the Broncos at No. 9 in the final rankings on selection day for the playoff field.

Of course, if this new seeding system was in place last season, Penn State may have been without a home playoff game and at risk of suffering an early exit as each team with a bye in the College Football Playoff did last season. Penn State defeated Boise State, Oregon lost to Ohio State, Georgia lost to Notre Dame, and Arizona State came up short against Texas.

The sample size is just one year’s worth of evidence but the committee clearly took to heart the conversations brewing about the structure with the seeding system with last year’s first 12-team playoff in operation. The seeding and reading of the first-round bye was criticized by many going in and only saw the arguments against it strengthened with the four teams with a bye going down in their first respective games. We will see if this new change ultimately plays out the way many expect, but this new system does seemingly reward teams for their regular season success a bit more while diminishing the value of a conference championship slightly.

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