Green Bay Packers quarterback Malik Willis is emerging as one of the more intriguing names ahead of NFL free agency, with his limited starting résumé drawing comparisons to Brock Osweiler, according to an ESPN analysis.
In a piece published Tuesday, ESPN’s Ben Solak examined how teams may value Willis as he approaches free agency, noting the difficulty in finding a historical comparison for a quarterback with minimal starts but clear upside. Solak wrote that Willis no longer fits the profile of a sleeper signing and is expected to draw significant interest from quarterback-needy teams.
“Willis is no longer a sleeper signing,” Solak wrote. “His services will be hotly sought after by teams looking for a still-young gamble at a franchise quarterback. But just how hotly? It’s hard to find a historical proxy for ‘highly valued free agent with six career starts at quarterback.’”
Solak initially pointed to Jimmy Garoppolo as a loose comparison, citing Garoppolo’s limited early-career starts before landing a lucrative contract with the San Francisco 49ers. Garoppolo, however, differed stylistically from Willis and benefited from a brief but undefeated stretch as a starter, making the comparison imperfect.
Instead, Solak suggested Osweiler as a more realistic benchmark. Osweiler, a second-round pick in 2012, did not become a starter until his fourth season with the Denver Broncos. After seven starts, he parlayed that opportunity into a four-year, $72 million contract with the Houston Texans in 2016. The deal quickly proved costly, as Houston traded Osweiler and additional draft capital to the Cleveland Browns the following offseason after determining he was not a long-term starter.
Brock Osweiler comparison frames Malik Willis’ projected market value
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Solak noted that Osweiler’s contract averaged $18 million per year, roughly 8.6 percent of the league’s salary cap at the time. With the current cap projected to exceed $300 million, a similar percentage would equate to approximately $26 million annually today.
“This feels like the correct value for Willis,” Solak wrote, adding that the current quarterback market supports that range. Justin Fields signed a two-year deal worth $20 million per year with the New York Jets, while Baker Mayfield is earning $33 million annually with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Solak described the gap between those figures as a potential sweet spot for Willis.
Willis, 26, spent the 2025 season with the Green Bay Packers, primarily serving as a backup to Jordan Love. He appeared in four games, completing 85.7 percent of his passes for 422 yards and three touchdowns. He posted a 145.5 passer rating and a 93.1 quarterback rating. As a runner, Willis added 123 yards on 22 carries with two rushing touchdowns, though he also recorded two fumbles, one of which was lost.
The Miami Dolphins have been among the teams loosely linked to Willis as a potential suitor, particularly amid uncertainty surrounding Tua Tagovailoa’s future following a franchise reset. Miami’s recent hires with ties to Green Bay have further fueled speculation, though no formal move has been made.
NFL free agency opens March 9, and Willis’ combination of efficiency, athleticism, and limited exposure positions him as one of the more polarizing quarterback options on the market.