The future of Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has often been a talking point for some time now, though the 2026 offseason feels as strong as ever in terms of actual chances the former No. 1 pick could be moved.
The Cardinals saw Murray depart after Week 5 with a foot injury before never returning, suggesting to some he was benched in favor of Jacoby Brissett — who finished the season as Arizona’s starting quarterback. Arizona then fired head coach Jonathan Gannon after a dismal 3-14 record and replaced him with Los Angeles Rams offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur.
In what will be his eighth season and third coaching staff in Arizona, there’s growing belief the Cardinals will at least entertain offers for Murray — though one analyst says his trade value is shockingly low.
Kyler Murray Projected to Fetch Day 3 Pick in Possible Trade
NFL Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
ESPN’s Ben Solak projects Murray to fetch a Day 3 (Rounds 4-7) draft pick, which is a stark contrast in comparison to Josh Weinfuss’ recent report talking to league executives, who expect a Day 2 (Rounds 2-3) selection.
Why? Murray’s contract.
“If Murray’s contract is traded in its current form, I think the return would be almost nominal — a Day 3 pick. For acquiring teams with plenty of cap space and a long-term rebuild ahead (think teams such as the Jets), keeping the draft capital and spending the money on Murray might be preferable,” Solak wrote.
“But would the Cardinals endure the optics of getting just a fourth-round pick for Murray to save the money? I’d wager they’re more likely to take on some dead cap in order to improve the draft compensation they get in return, which would put other teams in play.”
READ Kyler Murray Unsure of Cardinals’ Future
Murray is entering the third season of a five-year, $230.5 million contract awarded by Arizona. It’s notable his final year, 2028, carries a team option where he could be cut for $0 in dead cap space.
NFL teams got great news when the salary cap ballooned up to even greater heights than anticipated for 2026, which should help swallowing Murray’s massive contract in a potential trade.
Teams such as the New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, Atlanta Falcons, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers are expected to explore the quarterback market this offseason.
The Jets, particularly, have been highlighted by national and New York media as a serious place of interest for Murray.
Aug 9, 2025; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) reacts after a yellow penalty flag is thrown against the Kansas City Chiefs during a preseason NFL game at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Solak then broke down the financial details of Murray’s contract:
“If Murray’s deal is moved as is, he would have three years and about $125 million left on it — an average of $41.6 million per year, just above Matthew Stafford for 16th among all quarterbacks. Of that $125 million, a whopping $60 million would be guaranteed, a huge amount for a deal acquired via trade,” he wrote.
“This is one of the reasons why quarterback megacontracts aren’t often traded. Because of roster bonus timing and salary guarantee kickers deep into the fourth or fifth years of the deal, the acquiring team gets stuck not just with big remaining contract years but also with guaranteed money it can’t easily release or restructure.
“Murray ‘s $22.8 million base salary for the 2026 season is already guaranteed, and another $17 million in roster bonuses is guaranteed by whatever team rosters him — the Cardinals or an acquiring team — on the fifth day of the 2026 league year. As such, Murray would hit the cap for over $40 million in Year 1 and is due another $19.5 million guaranteed in Year 2. This is not a small commitment.”
Not at all, to Solak’s point. If the Cardinals are going to really get some trade value out of Murray, they might have to eat some of his salary to better facilitate a deal.
READ: What Mike LaFleur Said About Kyler Murray
The ultimate question for general manager Monti Ossenfort: Do the Cardinals truly care about maximizing a return for Murray?
Arizona sits with a projected $42.1 million in cap space entering the offseason, so eating some of Murray’s salary is doable if they truly coveted a high pick in return.
If they want Murray out of town just for the sake of starting anew, a Day 3 pick would likely be resisted but ultimately accepted if the trade market won’t budge.
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