Greetings on this post-NFL Conference Championship Monday, as we finally know which teams will meet in Super Bowl LX a couple of weeks from now in Santa Clara, California. It’s a familiar matchup featuring the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots, who previously faced off in Super Bowl XLIX 11 years ago. A lot has changed since then — tell me about it, I was still in my 20s then — and we’ll get into some of the long and winding paths these teams took to the Big Game below. But such is the cyclical nature of the NFL, where teams can rise and fall and rebuild all over again in a surprisingly short span of time. (Unless they’re the Jets.) As we embark on the longest two weeks in sports, between the conference title games and the Super Bowl itself, here’s what we have our eyes on today:

The Main Events

NBA:
🏀 Magic (32%) at Cavs (68%)* – 7 p.m.
🏀 Blazers (27%) at Celtics (73%) – 8 p.m.
🏀 Warriors (30%) at T-Wolves (70%) – 9:30 p.m.

Hockey:
🏒 Mammoth (39%) at Lightning (61%) – 7 p.m.
🏒 Kings (47%) at Blue Jackets (53%) – 7 p.m.

College Hoops:
🏀 Louisville (24%) at Duke (76%) – 7 p.m.
🏀 Arizona (57%) at BYU (43%) – 9 p.m.

Soccer:
⚽ Everton (37%) vs. Leeds United (33%) – 3 p.m.

Tennis:
🎾 Australian Open (Jannik Sinner 50% men’s; Aryna Sabalenka 42% women’s)

All listed times are Eastern.

There and back again

Like we said earlier, the Super Bowl matchup that was clinched on Sunday will be Seattle versus New England — the exact same pair of teams that decided the 2014-15 NFL season. Of course, that in itself isn’t too uncommon; there have been 11 Super Bowls in history that featured teams that had already faced in a previous Super Bowl, of which more than half (six) have taken place since 2012, five have happened since 2018, and three have come in the past three years: Chiefs-49ers, Eagles-Chiefs, and now Patriots-Seahawks:

That said, this year looks very different from that previous Patriots-Seahawks matchup 11 years ago.

Yes, there are the obvious personnel changes: Tom Brady and Russell Wilson were the star quarterbacks then; now the former is an announcer and the latter is hanging on to the tail end of his career as the backup on a 4-13 Giants team. Back then, current Seahawks starter, Sam Darnold, was a high school senior bound for USC, while Pats starter Drake Maye was just 12 years old. (Do you feel old yet?)

But there’s also the fact that, unlike in 2014-15, this was a Super Bowl matchup that few saw coming before the season.

Months before the previous clash, the dynasty-era Patriots and the defending champion Seahawks had been two of the top three betting favorites to win Super Bowl XLIX. (Along with the Broncos — which, coincidentally, New England outlasted in the snow on Sunday this time around.) Though the Conference Championships had drama — Seattle needed a miracle comeback to defeat the Packers in the NFC, while the Pats’ AFC title game drubbing of Indianapolis gave birth to the Deflategate scandal — there was basically zero surprise that New England and Seattle, Brady and Wilson, and coaches Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll were the last ones standing that year.

This year, however, you could have won a lot of money betting that New England and Seattle would make the Super Bowl. Both teams were only borderline top 20 in the league in the preseason odds, with neither team breaking a 2% chance according to the prediction markets at the beginning of September. Even at midseason, the NFL looked so wide open — and both teams’ and QBs’ track records were so mixed — that neither team even rose to double-digit title odds until the second week of December.

So an inevitable collision course in the same vein as 2014-15, this most certainly was not. But none of that matters now, and both teams are back in the Big Game looking for another championship ring: Seattle seeking its second win of all time, and New England looking to capture a record seventh Super Bowl, breaking its current tie with Pittsburgh. The prediction markets have Seattle as a very solid early favorite, at nearly 70% to win — but if what happened last time is any indication, these teams should have plenty more surprises left in store for us before it’s all over.

Shifting conditions

As a massive snowstorm was sweeping across the rest of the country, it seemed that both of the NFL’s Conference Championships — set in Seattle and Denver — would be spared much of the effects on Sunday. And that sort of ended up being true. The Seahawks-Rams game in Seattle was played under fairly perfect cool conditions, with calm winds and temperatures in the mid-30s. The Broncos-Patriots game earlier that afternoon in Denver seemed like it might also be chilly but sunny, perfect football weather — but Mother Nature had other plans. Over the course of the game, the temperature dropped from the high 20s to the teens and the wind picked up from relatively calm to gusts of nearly 40 mph, while the humidity rose dramatically with fog, and then blustery snow, moving over the field. By the end of the game, conditions were unrecognizable from the opening kickoff, making passing and kicking extremely difficult for both teams — and giving an edge to the Patriots, who were able to nurse the 10-7 lead they’d built in the third quarter, right as the weather was taking a turn for the worse, all the way to the finish.

What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.

🏈 “Don’t count out Mike Vrabel in Super Bowl LX” by Tyler Dunne
🏀 “This is the best passer in college basketball history” by Jordan Sperber
🏒 “It is all going to fall on Connor McDavid for the Oilers (again)” by Adam Gretz
⛳ “Why Rory McIlroy’s Knighthood Remains Elusive” by Money in Sport
🏈 “Visualizing What You (Should) Already Know About Running Back Production” by VolumePigs

Next on deck…

Tuesday (1/27)
🏀 NBA: Pistons at Nuggets
🏒 NHL: Mammoth at Panthers
🏒 NHL: Golden Knights at Canadiens
🏒 NHL: Sabres at Maple Leafs
🏀 MBB: Nebraska at Michigan
🎾 Tennis: Australian Open (quarterfinals)

Wednesday (1/28)
🏀 NBA: Spurs at Rockets
🏒 NHL: Avalanche at Senators
🏀 WBB: Washington at Maryland
⚽ Champions League: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Newcastle United
🎾 Tennis: Australian Open (quarterfinals)

Thursday (1/29)
🏀 NBA: Thunder at T-Wolves
🏀 NBA: Pistons at Suns
🏒 NHL: Avalanche at Canadiens
🏒 NHL: Jets at Lightning
🏒 NHL: Stars at Golden Knights
🏀 WBB: Vanderbilt at Ole Miss
⛳ Golf: Farmers Insurance Open

🧠 Looking ahead

Stay tuned for more updates and in-depth analysis of these events and more as they unfold. We’ll be bringing you all the scores, highlights, and expert commentary.

Got a favorite team or sport you want us to cover more? Let us know!

All data current as of time of send.

— by Neil Paine

*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.