It’s not often that an NFL head coach can join a team and lead it to a Super Bowl appearance in his first year with the club. Mike Vrabel became just the eighth to accomplish the feat when he guided the New England Patriots to a berth in Super Bowl LX this past season.
Vrabel’s Patriots were defeated by the Seattle Seahawks 29-13, leaving the number of head coaches to win the Lombardi Trophy in their first year with a team at four. The most recent to do so was Gary Kubiak, who joined the Denver Broncos prior to the 2015 season and led them past the Carolina Panthers 24-10 in Super Bowl 50.Â
Kubiak joined Don McCafferty (Baltimore Colts, 1970), George Seifert (San Francisco 49ers, 1989) and Jon Gruden (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2002). In the 60-year history of the Super Bowl, McCafferty and Seifert are the only rookie head coaches to win the championship.
Entering the 2026 NFL season, 10 men have the opportunity to join the limited group of head coaches to take their team to the Super Bowl in their first year at the helm. Six of them will be making their debut in the position in the NFL — including Klint Kubiak, the son of Gary who was hired by the Las Vegas Raiders after spending 2025 as the offensive coordinator of the of the champion Seahawks.
It’s never too early to look ahead to the next football season, so let’s take a look at the head coaches with the best chance to follow in Vrabel’s footsteps and become the ninth to make it to the Super Bowl in their first year with their team in 2026. DraftKings Sportsbook has released futures odds for NFL conference winners, so I’ll rank the top five with the strongest opportunity to join the exclusive club.
1. Joe Brady, Buffalo Bills (+500 to win AFC)
Most of the new head coaches in 2026 will need herculean efforts from their teams to pull off the amazing turnaround Vrabel and the Patriots did last season, when they posted a 14-3 record after going 4-13 the previous year. However, Brady doesn’t fall into that category.
The Bills went 12-5 in 2025 and were expected by many to reach the Super Bowl for the first time since 1993, even though they needed three road wins to do so. They obviously fell short, ending Sean McDermott’s nine-year tenure in Buffalo, and the team brass elected to go with familiarity in Brady. The 36-year-old joined the organization in 2022 as quarterbacks coach, became interim offensive coordinator during the following season and took over the role on a permanent basis in 2024.
Josh Allen, the 2024 NFL MVP and third-place finisher last year, was involved in the interview process during the search for a new head coach and certainly is comfortable working with Brady. Pete Carmichael, who helped the New Orleans Saints become a offensive force while serving as their OC from 2009-23, was brought in to fill that role in Buffalo, while former Denver assistant Jim Leonhard replaces Bobby Babich as the defensive coordinator.
Brady’s — and the Bills’ — success will depend on a number of things, including general manager Brandon Beane’s ability to improve the team’s receiving corps and pass rush via free agency and the draft. Carmichael and Leonhard also will have a lot on their shoulders, and Allen will be expected to have another MVP-like season if Brady hopes to complete the job McDermott couldn’t.
The Kansas City Chiefs’ run of dominance in the AFC may be over and the Patriots will have a much more difficult schedule than they did this past season. That means the window still is open for the Bills, who are the early favorites at DraftKings to represent the conference at SoFi Stadium in Super Bowl LXI next February.
2. Jesse Minter, Baltimore Ravens (+600 to win AFC)
Minter returns to the organization with which he made his NFL debut in 2017 as a defensive assistant. He eventually became Baltimore’s defensive backs coach in 2020 but departed after just one year for collegiate jobs before serving as the Los Angeles Chargers’ DC the past two seasons.
The 42-year-old Minter takes over for John Harbaugh, who was the Ravens’ head coach for 18 seasons and guided them to victory in Super Bowl XLVII. He’ll be expected to use his defensive knowledge to help turn around a unit that was 24th in total defense (354.5 yards allowed) last year and tied for 30th against the pass (247.9).
Baltimore still has two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson under center and two-time league rushing leader Derrick Henry in the backfield. The club certainly underachieved with them in 2025, but sometimes a team just needs something different after nearly two decades of listening to the same voice. DraftKings seems to agree, as it lists the Ravens as the second favorite to come out of the AFC next season.
3. Mike McCarthy, Pittsburgh Steelers (+2200 to win AFC)
The outlook for the rest of the new head coaches is much more murky, as four of the remaining eight are guiding teams that won fewer than five games last year. But the Steelers won the AFC North title and made their fifth playoff appearance in six seasons, making Mike Tomlin’s resignation after 19 seasons — all of which saw the team finish .500 or better — surprising to some.
Others weren’t taken aback at all, as it felt as though things in the Steel City were stale and a change was necessary. Tomlin’s decision also took the burden away from the front office of the Steelers, who had a total of three head coaches since Chuck Noll took over for Bill Austin in 1969.
That number reached four with the hiring of McCarthy, who was out of the league last season after serving as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys from 2020-24. Dallas went 12-5 three times during his five-year tenure, making the playoffs each of those seasons and winning the NFC East title twice.
Prior to his time with “America’s Team,” the 62-year-old McCarthy coached the Green Bay Packers from 2006-18. In that span, the Packers made nine postseason appearances, won six NFC North crowns and defeated Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XLV.
Green Bay’s starting quarterback for all but two of McCarthy’s years at the helm was four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers, who was under center for the Steelers in 2025. The 42-year-old has yet to decide on his future as a player, but a return to Pittsburgh for a reunion with McCarthy wouldn’t surprise anyone. But no matter who the team’s signal-caller is, there are too many other issues on both sides of the ball right now to expect the Steelers to make their first Super Bowl appearance since 2010.
4. Kevin Stefanski, Atlanta Falcons (+4000 to win NFC)
Despite being with a disfunctional organization like the Cleveland Browns for his first six years as an NFL head coach, Stefanski proved to be capable as he was named Coach of the Year twice during his tenure. He first earned the honor as a rookie in 2020, when he guided Cleveland to an 11-5 record and its first playoff appearance in 18 years.
The 43-year-old now takes over a Falcons team with a fair amount of upside despite having just posted its eighth consecutive sub-.500 season. Atlanta was eliminated from postseason contention with its Week 14 loss to Seattle but went on to win its final four games, giving its fans hope for 2026.
Stefanski likely will have the oft-injured Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback since veteran Kirk Cousins is expected to be released, but he inherits a squad that was second in the NFL with 57 sacks last season and has an offense with a running back in Bijan Robinson, who was fourth in the league in rushing (1,478 yards), and a receiving corps that features Drake London, who racked up 919 receiving yards despite playing in only 12 games.
Guiding the Falcons to their first Super Bowl appearance since 2016 is probably too tall an order for Stefanski, but asking him to help end the club’s eight-year playoff drought isn’t, especially when it resides in the NFC South.
5. John Harbaugh, New York Giants (+3500 to win NFC)
OK, it’s basically ludicrous to think the Giants can make it to the Super Bowl in 2026 after they won a total of seven games over the last two seasons. But the team reached the playoffs in Brian Daboll’s first year as an NFL head coach in 2022 and upset the Minnesota Vikings before getting steamrolled by the Philadelphia Eagles.
Some believe New York has enough talent on both sides of the football to give Harbaugh a chance to work magic. However, wideout Malik Nabers will be coming back from a torn ACL and quarterback Jaxson Dart has a playing style that makes him susceptible to injuries.
The 63-year-old Harbaugh went 180-113 as head coach of the Ravens but got them to the Super Bowl only one time in 18 seasons — and none in eight campaigns with Jackson under center. Baltimore also struggled to protect late leads under Harbaugh, and the Giants had a lot of difficulty doing it last year, losing five games in which they were ahead in the fourth quarter. Not exactly a recipe for a trip to the Super Bowl, although crazier things have happened in the NFL.