Each year when the National Football League goes on hiatus from mid-February to early-August, it’s a time period that’s mostly filled with optimistic fanbases projecting and talking themselves into the best case scenario versions of what the upcoming season may look like. For fans of the Houston Texans, it doesn’t take an overactive imagination to see what the 2026 Texans will look like.

We know that Houston’s defense will remain elite. Yes, year over year, defense tends to be more volatile than we generally expect it to be, but when the unit has as much talent as the Texans defense does, it’s pretty safe to say that the group will remain one of the best in the NFL.

We know that the offensive line will remain a topic of conversation, and that’s the case whether Houston decides to use the offseason to remake the front five and try to improve upon the modest gains from 2024 to 2025, or if they simply run it back with at least the majority of the pieces that were in place last season.

We know — or more accurately, we hope — that Tank Dell’s return, coupled with projected year one to year two jumps for Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, should provide the Texans passing attack with a little more pop.

We know that even with Woody Marks coming back after spending most of the season as Houston’s starting running back, this room will look drastically different in 2026, especially if the Texans decide to make a play for one of the top free agents in the class.

What we don’t know if what version of CJ Stroud we’ll see when the Texans step on the field for Week 1 of the 2026 season.

Between now and the start of September, you’re going to come across a handful of well-written articles or captivating podcasts in which the title of the piece or topic of conversation is something like: CJ Stroud is the most important player in the National Football League in 2026.

Frankly, I’ll probably be one of the many writers who devotes a thousand or so words to this topic, not only because pumping out Texans content is my job, but also because it’s true. Had CJ Stroud not been an abject disaster in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs, it’s possible that the Houston Texans would be the team that proved once and for all that defense does indeed win championships. But in two postseason games, even ‘slightly below average’ was a bar that Stroud couldn’t reach.

Because that was the case, there now seems to be more chatter regarding Stroud, his pending contract extension and his future with the Texans than we would’ve ever imagined was possible a year ago at this time. But things change quickly in the National Football League. Hell, the Texans have learned that the hard way, particularly with quarterbacks, in the very recent past.

It’s been nearly a month since that abysmal season-ending loss in Foxborough, and in that time, almost everyone who has a platform to talk about professional football has pondered whether the Texans should think about trading Stroud away as opposed to paying him what would likely be somewhere in the neighborhood of $50-to-60 million per year.

There will of course be a sect of Texans fans who reject this immediately. After all, Stroud is just 24 years old and he’s only two years removed from one of the most productive rookie seasons ever by a quarterback. But before you reflexively push back on this notion, I would advise you — and more importantly, Texans general manager Nick Caserio — at least sit back and listen to the rationale provided by former NFL quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick for why now is the time to move on from Stroud.

“You can’t tell me that there aren’t teams that are out there that would trade two first-round picks and some more things for C.J. Stroud,” Fitzpatrick suggested on the Fitz and Whit Show. “I just think if you’re Nick Caserio right now with Houston, it’s like, ‘All right, so I can have Davis Mills at $7 million and a bunch more draft capital, or I could have no additional draft capital and C.J. Stroud at $60-plus million. I at least think there has to be a conversation about it.”

Once again, this is a conversation I do believe is worth having, particularly because from a financial perspective it does make a ton of sense. The Texans have the pieces in place to field one of the league’s best defenses for the next half decade assuming they’re able to pay a half dozen of their most important players. Derek Stingley Jr. was the first. Will Anderson Jr. will be the next. Kamari Lassiter and Calen Bullock will come up soon enough. But in time, it will be impossible to keep this group together if you’re paying nearly $60 million for CJ Stroud.

Now if Stroud remained on the trajectory it appeared he was on after his rookie season, this wouldn’t even be a discussion. If you have a top eight quarterback in the NFL — or someone who theoretically will get there over the course of their development — you pay them whatever the market says you should and you don’t think twice. But how the Texans end up in a full-blown panic is if you’re paying a quarterback $60 million and he’s league average.

And in 2025, that’s exactly what CJ Stroud was.

Each year since 2013, NFL.com has ranked all quarterbacks who started at least one game in the regular season. This year, 63 quarterbacks made up that list, but because the league has 32 teams, really only the top half of the list needs to be considered. This year, NFL.com’s Nick Shook ranked Stroud 20th in the NFL.

“CJ Stroud’s playoff performances hurt his reputation, but those who watched the Texans in the regular season shouldn’t have been all that surprised by the result,” Shook writes. “Sure, Stroud delivered a memorably terrible outing against New England in the Divisional Round, but he also showed plenty of inconsistencies in the months leading up to it. Those explosive moments — i.e., Week 5 at Baltimore and Week 15 versus Arizona — however, sure were a treat to watch.”

It’s worth noting that Davis Mills, who started three games in the middle of the regular season while Stroud remained in concussion protocol, came in at #32 on the list, ahead of Week 1 starters such as JJ McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr., Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, Jayden Daniels, Spencer Rattler, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.

Trading Stroud ahead of the 2026 season doesn’t necessarily put the Texans in a significantly more prosperous financial state than it would if they kept him, assuming that is that extension talks are put off for the time being. In all likelihood, if the Texans were to entertain this idea, it would probably happen next year at this time, before it became imperative that Stroud inked an extension before playing out the fifth year of a rookie deal.

Of course, if CJ Stroud were to complete a third straight season in which he failed to live up to his rookie standards, it would tank his trade value, so if Nick Caserio wants to maximize what they can get for him, now would be the time to strike.