Yes, it is only February (i.e., too early to be making large-scale assumptions about the NFL Draft), but you’d be surprised by how much we know about the potential plans of teams around the league right now.
The insiders who follow the draft specifically already have information, and sometimes there are just clear links you can confidently, and oftentimes accurately, project.
We’ve already gone through the Senior Bowl and the East-West Shrine Bowl, which also tells us who teams are meeting with and keeping their eyes on for further talking and testing at the Scouting Combine, which kicks off February 26th.
Final.
American Team 17 | National Team 9#TheDraftStartsInMobile pic.twitter.com/0ZqMULCQ7T
— Panini Senior Bowl (@seniorbowl) January 31, 2026
This is all to say that while it may seem early to ask the kind of question I’m about to ask, it may be more well-supported than you might think.
As such, I think Cowboys fans need to be asking if the team’s 12th overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft is losing value. Let me explain.
Top Dogs Off The Board: Recent Mocks Not Helping Dallas
First, my main reason for concern is the mock drafts and whispers that have been coming out recently.
They’ve featured the normal big names on defense previously tied to the Cowboys, going far ahead of where Jerry Jones & Co. are picking.
Caleb Downs, Rueben Bain Jr., Arvell Reese, David Bailey, Mansoor Delane. All of these top defensive players have seen their stock tick up in recent weeks, and I do not think that stems from meaningless rumors.
These guys are the cream of the crop defensively in 2026, and I am finding it hard to believe even one of them gets to Dallas at 12.
The Quarterback Problem: Only One QB Selected Hurts 12th Pick
Another big reason for both the 12th pick losing value and those previously named defensive players going off the board is the quarterback problem in this class.
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana’s superstar QB and the Raiders’ future face of the franchise, is likely the only quarterback to go off the board before Dallas. In a normal year, multiple guys at that position would go, thus knocking defensive talent down the board.
Alabama’s Ty Simpson may have a shot to sneak in there, but either way, that’s the difference of just one more pick pushed down to the Cowboys.
This really hurts Dallas’s ability to land the star defender they need, especially since that will likely be their only target come Draft Day.
Defense-Only Limits Value: Dallas Won’t Be Targeting WR, RB, or OL
I just find it hard to believe we’re going to see this front office tempted by any offensive talent with the 12th pick, which further limits the value of the selection if you hold onto it.
By waiting until the first 11 picks go off the board, you pigeonhole yourself into either reaching for the best defensive player left or finding a trade partner in a very limited amount of time. Neither option is favorable, to say the least.
Sure, a guy like Sonny Styles from Ohio State is likely to be at 12 still, unless something changes, but that feels like a guy to me you may rather snatch up at 20 after getting the cornerback or pass rusher you desperately need with the first selection.
Beyond Bailey, Bain, and the versatile Reese, I don’t think there is a pass rusher at all who fits the value of the 12th pick, and there may not be one that’s good value at 20 either.
As the days continue to go by, I think the odds of Dallas moving up or down with their first pick increase. Staying put may not help you come the fall.
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