If I asked you back around Halloween whether the Indianapolis Colts were a playoff team, you’d likely give me a funny look for questioning the then 7-1 Colts, the top seed in the AFC. However, what’s your answer today about their chances in 2026 after they lost eight of their last nine games and missed the postseason?

On one hand, the team was led by an offense putting up historic numbers through the season’s first half, with a quarterback in Daniel Jones and a running back in Jonathan Taylor both playing at an All-Pro level. Defensively, coordinator Lou Anarumo was pulling the strings on a creative unit that routinely caused issues for opposing offenses.

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On the other hand, how did the team’s injuries cause them to deconstruct that badly? The Colts were dealt a devastating hand, but other teams had just as poor injury luck and had better outcomes. There are conspiracy theories about the San Francisco 49ers’ injuries, and they beat the Colts by 21 points on national television in their own stadium on Christmas week.

Still, with all that considered, the Colts did, for much of the season, look like one of the top teams in the NFL. Surely, they’re not too far away from actually making it to the playoffs, right? Well, it has been six years.

This week, ESPN senior national NFL writer Jeremy Fowler ranked the league’s 18 teams that didn’t make the playoffs into tiers, and he placed the Colts into the second tier, “A few moves away,” just below the “No need to panic” tier.

Joining the Colts are the Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, behind the Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, and Kansas City Chiefs. That’s not bad company.

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After citing the Colts’ projected $36.3 million in salary cap space in part to re-sign Jones, here’s what Fowler had to say about the Colts’ chances:

“The hope for a quick turnaround: The Colts were 8-2 when fully healthy. QB Daniel Jones’ injury devastated the team. Coach Shane Steichen has a track record as an offensive head coach. Indy is stout at the skill positions and offensive line. DeForest Buckner and Sauce Gardner should be healthier this season and boost the defense.

“Why it might take longer than hoped: Indy is going on 12 years without a division crown. There’s no guarantee that changes, especially in a much-improved AFC South. The Colts lack a first-round pick because of the Gardner trade, and the defense could lose Nick Cross and Kwity Paye. It seems like the right time to take a swing on a free agent pass rusher. Alec Pierce would be a big loss if he signs elsewhere.”

While the Colts cannot make excuses for injuries derailing their season, it’s difficult to find a more glaring issue. They had injuries to many of the main players they couldn’t afford injuries to, and suffered greatly as a consequence:

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CB Charvarius Ward Sr.: 10 games missed (5-5)

DT DeForest Buckner: 7 games missed (1-6)

CB Sauce Gardner: 5 games missed (0-5)*

QB Daniel Jones: 4 games missed (0-4)

WR Alec Pierce: 2 games missed (1-1)

While the Colts have all but two of those injured players under contract in 2026, Jones and Pierce are expected to be the Colts’ two biggest priorities in free agency, so all should be back.

With that said, there are major question marks about Ward and Buckner. Jones is returning from an Achilles tear, so he will likely be limited compared to how he looked in 2025. However, Ward and Buckner may not look the same at any point again.

Ward missed time with three concussions in 2025, landing on Injured Reserve for two of them. He admitted when the season ended that he is seriously considering retirement. Buckner suffered a herniated disc in his neck in Week 9 and went on IR as a result, and returned for one game in Week 16 before going back on IR to finish the season, undergoing a procedure as a result. He’ll be making his return from injury at 32 years old.

To address the Colts’ most significant needs — look around the defensive front seven — the Colts do not own a first-round pick, as Fowler mentioned. However, luckily for the Colts, this year’s draft class is very deep in front-seven talent, particularly on Day 2 when the Colts will be making their first picks.

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The Colts would be wise to load up on defensive talent in free agency first and let the draft class be a cherry on top, but we’ll see how their plans develop.

Jake Arthur has been covering the Indianapolis Colts for over a dozen years and is a member of the PFWA. He’s one half of the Locked On Colts podcast and has worked for the Colts’ official website, On SI, and more. You can follow him on X @JakeArthurNFL.