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Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell
Ayear removed from winning the NFL’s Coach of the Year award, Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is on hot-seat watch.
The Vikings fired general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah after missing the playoffs and watching Sam Darnold‘s Super Bowl ascent. While O’Connell emerged safe, the pressure is on him alone to prove his regime’s bet in J.J. McCarthy right.
Fox Sports’ Ralph Vacchiano scoured the NFL landscape after a historic 10 head coach changes this offseason and said O’Connell could be next, listing him as No. 7 on his 2026 NFL coaching hot-seat rankings.
“He’s incredibly well-respected, has a reputation as one of the greatest ‘quarterback whisperers’ in the league, and has won nearly twice as many games as he’s lost during his five seasons. He just got a lucrative contract extension, too. But his boss, owner Zygi Wilf, clearly wasn’t happy with the Vikings’ 9-8 record this past season and some of their recent quarterback decisions. That’s why he fired GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah,” Vacchiano wrote. “And while, yes, that means O’Connell emerged the victor of a power struggle, it also puts the heat on him. He’s got to prove Wilf was right, which means developing QB J.J. McCarthy and probably returning to the playoffs next season. Anything else, and who knows what Wilf will do?”
O’Connell ranks ninth among active coaches with a .632 winning percentage with a 43-25 regular-season record. However, he has yet to win a playoff game in two postseason appearances.
The coach of the year award hasn’t produced much staying power as of late. The previous two winners before O’Connell’s 2024 win were Kevin Stefanski and Brian Daboll — both of whom were fired by their previous teams two years later.
⬇️ @RalphVacchiano gives his early rankings of which coaches will be on the hottest seats heading into the 2026 season.
Read more: t.co/oy7ifa9h9d
Behind the Numbers: Vikings Offense’s Middling Performance Under Kevin O’Connell
Through four seasons, O’Connell has weathered bad quarterback luck, akin to the Rick Spielman-Mike Zimmer regime before him.
He helped Kirk Cousins and Darnold reinvent their careers to the tune of 13- and 14-win seasons in 2022 and 2024, respectively, but couldn’t get past the first round of the playoffs.
While those seasons galvanized the locker room and led the organization out of the darkness of the Zimmer-Spielman era, this past season’s miscalculation with McCarthy has diminished confidence in Minnesota.
O’Connell’s leadership is a plus for the organization, but beyond the intangibles is, more importantly, the success on the field.
The Vikings passing game has struggled without a competent quarterback under center, and O’Connell has not installed a compelling run game to lean on when his quarterback play isn’t up to par. He’s also shown some rigidity in his play-calling, begging McCarthy to get up to speed before he ultimately pared down the playbook this past season.
Overall, the advanced analytics are not overly flattering of O’Connell. Under O’Connell, the Vikings have fielded an above-average offense in terms of expected points added (EPA) just once and have never finished above 15th in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), another helpful advanced analytics.
From Vikings on SI:
2022: 18th in EPA* per play, 20th in DVOA*
2023: 18th in EPA per play, 23rd in DVOA
2024: 14th in EPA per play, 15th in DVOA
2025: 28th in EPA per play, 29th in DVOA
*Expected Points Added
*Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average
The onus will be on O’Connell next season to bring the Vikings back to the playoffs by either elevating the play at quarterback or finding more in the running game.
Brian Flores Presents Vikings Pivot Off O’Connell
If O’Connell is fired next year, the Vikings have an ideal pivot to defensive coordinator Brian Flores as their new head coach.
Flores has transformed the Vikings defense since arriving in 2023, turning one of the league’s worst defenses into a top-five unit:
2022: 16th in EPA per play, 25th in DVOA (Ed Donatell as DC)
2023: 17th in EPA per play, 11th in DVOA (Flores)
2024: 2nd in EPA per play, 2nd in DVOA
2025: 3rd in EPA per play, 3rd in DVOA
There is an argument to be made that the Vikings’ recent success has been more on the defense under Flores than the offense.
However, the Vikings’ decision-makers hired O’Connell to lead them into the future at quarterback, and Flores would not provide an advantage in that sense.
Trevor Squire is a sports journalist covering the NFL and NBA for Heavy.com, with a focus on the Minnesota Vikings, Minnesota Timberwolves and Milwaukee Bucks. Trevor studied journalism at the University of Minnesota — Twin Cities, making stops at the Star Tribune and the St. Paul Pioneer Press. You can reach him at trevor.squire@heavy.com and follow him on Twitter @trevordsquire. More about Trevor Squire
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