The NFL season is over, which means the national media is fully diving into the 2026 NFL Draft. This has led to analysts becoming increasingly bold in each mock draft, adding in some trades. Writer Dan Parr did this by predicting the Houston Texans to trade back with the New York Jets. In a class that’s lacking elite top-tier talent, it could make sense to gain some additional late-round draft capital.
“Fearing the Rams could snatch Simpson as the heir to Matthew Stafford four picks before the Jets are on the clock at No. 33, New York parts with that selection — along with a fourth-rounder this year and next — to move up and secure the consensus QB2 in the class.”
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In this scenario, Parr traded pick number 28 to the Jets for number 33, a fourth-round pick this year, and another fourth next season. New York then used this pick to select Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson. This is fair value, but the Texans might be able to get more because of the “quarterback tax”, meaning a team is likely to give up more to find their future signal caller.
The 2026 NFL Draft is viewed as having more depth than top-end talent. This will cause those fourth-round picks to be more valuable as the Texans are more likely to find a starter. For instance, they can easily find a starting-caliber receiver or defensive lineman later in the draft.
This isn’t to say the top of the draft isn’t talented. Trading down could be smart, but staying and picking a top offensive lineman could be wise. Players like Max Iheanachor, Emmanuel Pregnon, Vega Ioane, Blake Miller, and Monroe Freeling are all enticing options who have the potential to develop into a franchise-caliber prospect.
It’s important to note that in Parr’s scenario, they would still be in the range to select these players at pick 33. However, they wouldn’t get the fifth-year option on their contract, which will force the Texans to pay them sooner. Not necessarily a bad thing, but something worth mentioning.
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Every fan will have their own opinion on what the Texans should do with the 28th overall pick. However, it may make sense to trade back in the 2026 NFL Draft and acquire additional future capital. Dan Parr had this idea in a recent article with the Texans trading back with the Jets, and it’s something they should heavily consider if the opportunity presents itself.