Feb. 16, 2026, 8:45 p.m. PT

The San Francisco 49ers leaned heavily on running back Christian McCaffrey again in 2025. And while it was an impressive year for the 29-year-old, it doesn’t bode well for him in 2026.

McCaffrey’s sensational season ended with 2,126 scrimmage yards and 17 touchdowns in 17 regular season games. He won the Comeback Player of the Year award, finished second in Offensive Player of the Year voting and fourth in MVP voting.

The 2025 campaign marked the fifth time McCaffrey led the NFL in touches. He did it with 403 in the 2019 season. He did it again four seasons later with 339 touches in 2023. In 2020 he played in only three games and saw his yards per touch dip by a full yard. In 2024 he dealt with bilateral Achilles tendinitis, played in only four games, and saw his yards per touch dip by 0.6 yards.

The problem facing McCaffrey, who led the NFL in touches with 413 in the regular season and racked up another 37 in the postseason, is that his struggles after amassing that many touches in a season aren’t unique. It’s a trend that spans the last 25 years in the NFL.

McCaffrey, including the postseason, posted a whopping 450 touches in 19 games last season. He’s the 10th player in the last 25 years to reach that 450-touch plateau. History hasn’t been kind to the workhorses who hit that mark. The numbers tell us that the following season is typically a rough year in comparison to the previous one.

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Let’s dive into those 450-touch seasons (including the postseason) and what their following year looked like.

NFL players with 450-plus touches in a season since 20002014: DeMarco Murray, 497 (18 games)2000: Eddie George, 488 (17 games)2024: Saquon Barkley, 482 (20 games)2006: Larry Johnson, 475 (17 games)2000: Edgerrin James, 474 (17 games)2003: Ahman Green, 461 (18 games)2012: Arian Foster, 460 (18 games)2004: Curtis Martin, 457 (18 games)2002: LaDainian Tomlinson, 451 (16 games)2025: Christian McCaffrey, 450 (19 games)Average number of touches: 469.5 (17.8 games)

It’s pretty remarkable we saw Barkely and McCaffrey reach 450-plus touches in each of the last two years considering it hadn’t been done since Murray in 2014. Part of the reason it may happen less often now is because of the data we’re going to explore next.

Difference in touches after 450-plus touch season2015: DeMarco Murray, 237 (-260, 15 games)2001: Eddie George, 352 (-136, 16 games)2025: Saquon Barkley, 346 (-136, 17 games)2007: Larry Johnson, 188 (-287, 8 games)2001: Edgerrin James, 175 (-299, 6 games)2004: Ahman Green, 96 (-365, 5 games)2013: Arian Foster, 143 (-317, 8 games)2005: Curtis Martin, 244 (-213, 12 games)2003: LaDainian Tomlinson, 413 (-38 ,16 games)2026: Christian McCaffrey, TBDAverage difference in touches: -227 (11.4 games)

Two things stick out here. First, Martin is the only player over 30 on this list. McCaffrey is right on his heels at 29. No other player is older than 27. The second thing is that Tomlinson was a maniac. What a player.

Difference in scrimmage yards after 450-plus touch season2015: DeMarco Murray, 1,024 (-1,462)2001: Eddie George, 1,218 (-887)2025: Saquon Barkley, 1,544 (-1,313)2007: Larry Johnson, 745 (-1,515)2001: Edgerrin James, 855 (-1,588)2004: Ahman Green, 1,438 (-1,094)2013: Arian Foster, 725 (-1,243)2005: Curtis Martin, 853 (-1,308)2003: LaDainian Tomlinson, 2,370 (+198)2026: Christian McCaffrey, TBDAverage difference in yards: -1,134

First takeaway this time is LT being ridiculous. Some of these yardages are undoubtedly affected by the number of games played, but given McCaffrey’s injury history that’s a significant concern even beyond the dip in production.

Difference in touchdowns after 450-plus touch season2015: DeMarco Murray, 7 (-8)2001: Eddie George, 5 (-12)2025: Saquon Barkley, 9 (-11)2007: Larry Johnson, 4 (-15)2001: Edgerrin James, 3 (-15)2004: Ahman Green, 8 (-14)2013: Arian Foster, 2 (-18)2005: Curtis Martin, 5 (-9)2003: LaDainian Tomlinson, 17 (+2)2026: Christian McCaffrey, TBDAverage difference in touchdowns: -11.1

LT again is the exception that proves the rule.

Touchdowns are a tough stat to replicate year over year because they’re so independent of an individual player. It’s certainly notable in McCaffrey’s case because he put up 19 total touchdowns for San Francisco this season. In 2023 after he had 26 total TDs, he turned in zero the following year. He did hang up 19 in 2019 after a 13-touchdown season in 2018, but his 2020 campaign featured just three total TDs.

History is neither on McCaffrey nor the 49ers’ side this season. It’s going to be impossible for the 49ers to simply begin phasing McCaffrey out of their offense because despite losing a step he’s still an extremely productive player. The goal this offseason has to be to figure out a way to give the soon-to-be 30-year-old RB some breathing room.

Whether that means adjusting the offense to not require so much of the RB, or finding a backup RB who is capable of splitting snaps with McCaffrey without head coach Kyle Shanahan feeling like it derails their offense.

The numbers over the last quarter century tell us to expect a down year from McCaffrey in 2026. How the 49ers handle that over the offseason and once the regular season begins could be the thing that makes or breaks their hopes of building off a strong 2025 campaign and getting back to the Super Bowl.

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