Atlanta Falcons projected win total for 2026 NFL season

Updated Feb. 19, 2026, 12:47 p.m. ET

Over the last five NFL seasons, no team has been as aggressively average as the Atlanta Falcons. The team went 7-10 in three consecutive years under former head coach Arthur Smith (2021-2023). Raheem Morris took over as head coach in 2024 and led the Falcons to back-to-back 8-9 seasons.

Despite the team ending the year on a four-game winning streak, Atlanta fired Morris and brought in former Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski. Only time will tell if the Falcons made the right move, but NFL oddsmakers don’t seem to have much faith in the team’s direction.

For the 2026 season, DraftKings Sportsbook set the Falcons’ line at 6.5 wins. The team has averaged 7.4 wins over the last five seasons. Atlanta has a talented roster, but quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is coming off an ACL reconstruction, and there are question marks at the edge rusher and tight end.

Check out the projected win totals for all 32 NFL teams below.

2026 NFL projected win totalsArizona Cardinals: 4.5 wins (Over -110 | Under -110)Atlanta Falcons: 6.5 wins (Over -140 | Under +115)Baltimore Ravens: 10.5 wins (Over -145 | Under +120)Buffalo Bills: 10.5 wins (Over -125 | Under +105)Carolina Panthers: 6.5 wins (Over -120 | Under +100)Chicago Bears: 9.5 wins (Over +100 | Under -120)Cincinnati Bengals: 9.5 wins (Over -115 | Under -105)Cleveland Browns: 6.5 wins (Over +100 | Under -120)Dallas Cowboys: 8.5 wins (Over -130 | Under +110)Denver Broncos: 9.5 wins (Over -110 | Under -110)Detroit Lions: 10.5 wins (Over -130 | Under +110)Green Bay Packers: 10.5 wins (Over +100 | Under -120)Houston Texans: 9.5 wins (Over -110 | Under -110)Indianapolis Colts: 8.5 wins (Over +105 | Under -125)Jacksonville Jaguars: 9.5 wins (Over +100 | Under -120)Kansas City Chiefs: 10.5 wins (Over -105 | Under -115)Los Angeles Chargers: 10.5 wins (Over +110 | Under -130)Los Angeles Rams: 10.5 wins (Over -140 | Under +115)Las Vegas Raiders: 6.5 wins (Over +115 | Under -140)Miami Dolphins: 4.5 wins (Over -110 | Under -110)Minnesota Vikings: 8.5 wins (Over +115 | Under -140)New England Patriots: 9.5 wins (Over -140 | Under +115)New Orleans Saints: 7.5 wins (Over +100 | Under -120)New York Giants: 7.5 wins (Over +110 | Under -130)New York Jets: 6.5 wins (Over +115 | Under -140)Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5 wins (Over +105 | Under -125)Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 wins (Over +115 | Under -140)Seattle Seahawks: 10.5 wins (Over -130 | Under +110)San Francisco 49ers: 10.5 wins (Over +125 | Under -150)Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8.5 wins (Over -140 | Under +115)Tennessee Titans: 8.5 wins (Over -140 | Under +115)Washington Commanders: 7.5 wins (Over -110 | Under -110)Expert NFL picks: Exclusive betting insights only at USA TODAY.

The Falcons have won at least seven games in 10 of the last 11 seasons, but they haven’t won more than eight games since 2017. With that in mind, it would seem wise to take the over on Atlanta’s projected total of 6.5 wins.

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