The Las Vegas Raiders are entering a period of significant transition, from installing new head coach Klint Kubiak to holding the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, which is widely expected to be used on quarterback Fernando Mendoza.

With so much change coming, there will inevitably be roster turnover, and two of the biggest names potentially affected are Maxx Crosby and quarterback Geno Smith.

Smith was brought to Las Vegas last year by former head coach Pete Carroll, largely because of their strong relationship from his time in Seattle. However, Smith struggled during the 2025 season, and that has led many to believe he may not be in the Raiders’ long-term plans.

At 35 years old, Smith may still have some viable football ahead of him, especially as a veteran presence. His performance in 2025 was mixed, throwing for 3,025 yards with 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, and finishing with a 84.7 passer rating in a down year for the Raiders offense.

While those numbers show he can still move the ball, the high interception total and Las Vegas’ struggles on both sides of the ball have raised legitimate questions about his future with the team.

There is no official announcement that Smith will be released, but the possibility is growing. If he does reach the open market, one team that makes a surprising amount of sense is the Miami Dolphins.

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If the Raiders end up releasing Smith, here is the financial situation in terms of pros and cons. If he’s released before June 1st, the Raiders would have $26,500,000 against their 2026 cap, but in a year where they won’t be competing, it could set them up for a massive spending spree in 2027.

If the Raiders release him after June 1st, he would count $18,500,000 against the 2026 cap and $8,000,000 against the 2027 cap. Once again, for a rebuilding team, the cap space this year isn’t crucial so that would be the smart move.

There are already multiple connections between Smith and Miami, starting with his Florida roots, Geno was born in Miramar, Florida, and played his high school football nearby.

It’s not uncommon in the NFL for free agents to return closer to home; we’ve seen players like Mack Jones request trades to their hometown teams, and Saquon Barkley prefer playing near where he grew up. A move to Miami could provide both comfort and opportunity for Smith.

From a football standpoint, the Dolphins have a major decision to make at quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa is currently under contract but takes up significant cap space, and strong reports suggest he could be released or traded this offseason.

That would leave Miami searching for a veteran option to pair with or potentially mentor under a new regime led by general manager Jon Eric Sullivan. With veteran free agents like Jimmy Garoppolo and top targets like Malik Willis in the mix, Smith could be one of a few experienced quarterbacks Miami considers.

Smith wouldn’t necessarily walk in and have the starting job locked down immediately, but a quarterback competition in Miami could be more appealing than joining a situation like the Baltimore Ravens, where he might serve as a backup to someone like Lamar Jackson. Miami could offer Smith the chance to compete for the job, and provide a stable offensive environment around him.

There’s still plenty to be written about Geno Smith’s future, but the outlook is trending toward a release by Las Vegas. If that happens, the Miami Dolphins are one team that should strongly consider bringing him aboard, both for his experience and for the potential fit in their upcoming quarterback plans.

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