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Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza reacting after the College Football Playoff National Championship.
The New York Jets have one path to landing the top quarterback prospect in the 2026 NFL draft.
Kristopher Knox of Bleacher Report revealed what a hypothetical trade would look like if the Jets flipped with the Las Vegas Raiders in April.
New York Jets receive: a 2026 first-round pick (No. 1 overall)
Las Vegas Raiders receive: a 2026 first-round pick (No. 2 overall) and a 2026 first-round pick (No. 16 overall)
Knox explained that the Jets would be moving up to select Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza.
“Three years ago, the Chicago Bears shook up the offseason by trading the No. 1 overall pick—and the chance to draft Bryce Young—to the Carolina Panthers during the early offseason. The Las Vegas Raiders could make a similar move this offseason by opting to pass on Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza and dealing the top pick,” Knox wrote.
“Now, it feels extremely unlikely Las Vegas would make the move. The Raiders need a franchise quarterback, and Mendoza seems to be the closest thing to one in the 2026 draft class,” Knox admitted.
“However, the pre-draft process is only just getting underway. The Raiders could decide after interviews and further study that Mendoza isn’t the sort of ‘sure thing’ worth passing up extra draft capital to get. They may choose to build up their supporting cast first and find a quarterback later. In such a scenario, they could potentially move down one spot, allow the QB-desperate New York Jets to take the top spot, and pick up an extra first-rounder in the process,” Knox said.
This Would Be a One-Sided Trade According to Analytics
According to the NFL draft value chart, the No. 1 overall pick is worth 3,000 points. The combination of the Jets’ selections is worth 3,600 points (No. 2 overall is 2,600 points and No. 16 overall is 1,000 points).
By the numbers, this would be a win for Las Vegas.
However, this serves as a constant reminder that the draft value chart is merely a guidebook and not a hard-and-fast rule for NFL trade negotiations.
The QB position is a one-horse race in the 2026 NFL draft. If the Raiders decided to auction off the pick, the Jets would be one of many teams that would enter the bidding war. That alone would raise the price of any potential trade.
ESPN’s Rich Cimini told me on “Boy Green Daily” that the bidding would start with both Jets first-rounders in 2026 and “something else pretty good.”
Even then, Cimini said the Raiders would likely say no.
However, if you’re general manager Darren Mougey, you aren’t doing your job if you don’t call and at least try, Cimini told me.
NFL Draft Analyst Warns Jets Not to Do This
ESPN NFL draft analyst Matt Miller told Jets senior reporter Eric Allen that he wouldn’t trade up to the top selection.
He explained that the Jets are more than a quarterback away and would be better served building up the team in 2026 and targeting a quarterback in 2027.
“No, I wouldn’t do it. I know we always fall into the trap of oh, next year and oh, next year. Next year is gonna have this player by the name of Arch Manning, he is pretty good. Next year is gonna have Dante Moore, who might have been the No. 1 overall pick if he had come out of Oregon this year. I think it’s smarter to wait until next year,” Miller said on “Now Boarding.”
Paul Esden Jr. covers the New York Jets for Heavy.com. A New York native, he co-hosts a morning show, “The Manchild Show with Boy Green Digital.” Before joining Heavy in 2021, Esden Jr. covered both national and New York sports for FanSided, Elite Sports NY, and The Score 1260. More about Paul Esden Jr.
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