For the first time since they started lobbying three years ago, it looks as if the Bears will get government aid for a new stadium one way or another. Despite the hubbub in Indiana, Illinois is still favored to retain the team in the eyes of most experts. There’s a big caveat, though, in the form of Democrats who control the Illinois General Assembly.
Here’s the situation, as of this moment: Indiana Gov. Mike Braun (R) signed a bill that will create the Northwest Indiana Stadium Authority and a series of funding mechanisms to help the Bears build in Hammond, just over the state line from Chicago. The Bears still have up to two months of due diligence on the proposed site, and there’s still reason to be skeptical about the plans there. But on the public side of the ledger, Indiana is now a viable option.
Illinois is not. Yet. On Thursday, the Illinois House Revenue and Finance Committee approved a bill that would allow the Bears to lock in property taxes on their Arlington Heights site, a necessary condition for the team to build there. But that bill has not yet advanced to the full house, and it’s not certain it has the necessary support.
If the Bears had two viable options in hand, one in each state, they’d surely stay in Illinois. You can see the value the Bears place on Arlington Heights by comparing the deal terms. Indiana lawmakers are proposing direct assistance on the stadium itself, something the Bears have not even asked for on the Illinois option. Also, it’s simply a fact that Arlington Heights is closer to more people — and more wealth — than Hammond. Another telling sign: Even though the Indiana politicians are moving with rapidity, in lockstep with the Bears, Braun still only gave them a “6-in-10 chance” of actually coming across the border.
But right now, the Bears don’t have two viable options. Until they do, you can’t very well say that an Indiana bird in hand is more valuable than an Illinois bird in the bush.
The good news for Illinois is that the due diligence clock gives the Illinois General Assembly time to marshal support. The critical issue, according to my go-to source for Illinois political news, Rich Miller’s Capitol Fax, is that Chicago Democrats don’t want to vote for a bill that would allow the Bears to leave the city, and striking a deal on the Bears’ property taxes will annoy constituents who have their own tax problems. But if those legislators don’t help them leave the city, the Bears might leave the state altogether, depriving them of county-level tax revenue that the Illinois plan would still generate. People I trust in Chicago say that argument will ultimately win the day, allowing the Bears to stay. But they’re not quite sure of that, meaning Indiana — assumed to be a stalking horse at first — is a very real option.