March 3, 2026, 5:22 p.m. ET

The Indianapolis Colts have chosen to use the transition tag on quarterback Daniel Jones, while Alec Pierce is currently set to be a free agent. This is a risky path that GM Chris Ballard is potentially headed down.

Let’s start with Jones.

By using the transition tag, Jones is still able to negotiate with other teams, but the caveat is that the Colts have the opportunity to match any offer he receives.

The reason that the transition tag is being used in the first place is that the Colts and Jones couldn’t come to terms on a long-term deal, and by utilizing this tool, Ballard must be quite confident in what he expects Jones’ market to look like when other teams are able to get involved.

Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports had this to say about the Colts choosing to use the transition tag:

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“One league source believes the Colts are taking a calculated risk if they use the transition tag on Jones. The former Giants quarterback wouldn’t sign an offer sheet from just anywhere — think the Jets — and teams like the Cardinals and Dolphins may not have the money to get a deal done with Jones. On top of all that, teams may be wary of looking to lock up a quarterback they don’t know coming off a major injury.”

If Ballard is wrong, however, and Jones’ market becomes more active, that’s only going to drive his price tag up. And considering that it’s win-now for Ballard with the Colts having missed the playoffs five consecutive seasons, he’s not in any sort of position to say no, and will almost certainly have to match any offer. This could then reduce his flexibility to address other position groups on the roster.

Beyond that important aspect, Ballard even choosing to use the transition tag over the franchise tag is a risk. The non-exclusive franchise tag allows a player to sign an offer sheet with another team, but the original team has the opportunity to match, and if they don’t, they would receive two first-round draft picks in return.

Due to the draft picks being a part of the equation, the chances of losing a player on a transition tag vs. a franchise tag is far greater, and the difference between the two tags is only $6 million, which is very little in the grand scheme of the NFL salary cap.

Now, as it pertains to Pierce, with Jones being tagged, Pierce is set to hit the open market. The Colts can prevent that from happening by still agreeing to a long-term deal with Pierce before the NFL’s legal tampering period opens on March 9th.

But from Pierce’s perspective, in terms of maximizing his contract value, hitting free agency where numerous teams will be interested could further increase his payday. And with Pierce not being tagged, the Colts may not get the opportunity to match any offer he receives.

ESPN’s Stephen Holder also mentioned that it’s “very important” to Pierce that there is clarity at the quarterback position. Putting the transition tag on Jones perhaps helps provide that reassurance somewhat, but it doesn’t directly accomplish that either.

Perhaps a week from now, all of this is a moot point with both Jones and Pierce agreeing to new deals with the Colts. But there’s a lot of risk that the Colts are shouldering in order to get to that point.